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Consolidated "Airbus 380 - problems and discontinuation" thread

Consolidated "Airbus 380 - problems and discontinuation" thread

Old Aug 11, 2014, 4:08 pm
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Originally Posted by go_around
Interesting thread. Apart from Emirates, I'd be interested to see if further orders come through in Asia. This is where the aircraft's real potential lies. Just saw a China Southern A380 the other day and made me think of this exact point. China is an aviation market about to go crazy, just look at the rate of new AIRPORTS being built never mind planes being ordered. It'll be the usual suspects of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see regular domestic A380s at HKG, CAN, PVG, PEK...
With China and other Asian hubs building and expanding airport capacity at record levels, there seem to be plenty of slots permitting more flights between hubs than we see in Western Europe and North America. That doesn't favor the A380 for the most part, since it's usually better for business travelers to have multiple choices of departure times rather than a single or fewer departure time with a bigger plane like the A380. It is the slot limitation at Western hub airports that created the perceived need for the A380 in the first place...but that situation hasn't yet played out in China or anywhere else in Asia for the most part. Having an A380 fly BKK-HKG or ICN-HKG might look good, but it isn't the best profit center necessarily. Again, it all depends on how future demand stacks up against supply.

Of course, there's a reason why even Asian carriers have dropped or are considering dropping their A380 orders--it's an awfully risky proposition with such considerations, when there are more lucrative equipment options available even now.
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Old Aug 11, 2014, 4:38 pm
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I find this quite difficult to believe. Isn't the A380 is high demand? EK can't seem to get enough of them.
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Old Aug 11, 2014, 4:47 pm
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Originally Posted by UA Fan
Isn't the A380 is high demand? EK can't seem to get enough of them.
EK is literally the only airline on earth that has adopted that view, and all EK's competitors seem to think Emirates is insane -- possibly even dangerous. Raging overcapacity can be a serious destabilizing factor for the whole industry because it leads to fare-cutting. Remember how the first 747s were like rocks around the necks of the airlines 1970-75, flying around half empty. More seats than anyone could sell in a down economy. DL, EA, and NA quickly got rid of theirs.
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Old Aug 11, 2014, 4:48 pm
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Originally Posted by BearX220
EK is literally the only airline on earth that has adopted that view, and all EK's competitors seem to think Emirates is insane -- possibly even dangerous. Raging overcapacity can be a serious destabilizing factor for the whole industry because it leads to fare-cutting. Remember how the first 747s were like rocks around the necks of the airlines 1970-75, flying around half empty. More seats than anyone could sell in a down economy. DL, EA, and NA quickly got rid of theirs.
EK's loads and fares don't seem too low, right?
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Old Aug 11, 2014, 5:32 pm
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Originally Posted by UA Fan
EK's loads and fares don't seem too low, right?
If Emirates is the only airline that actually orders the A380 in any numbers, as it has been doing, then the A380 will never recoup its $25 billion investment. It's just that simple. There are outstanding orders, but it looks more likely that airlines besides Emirates are canceling their orders in lieu of other aircraft. Without 450-500 A380s sold, Airbus loses money on their investment.. The discounting that Airbus is doing now to help sell more A380s further increases the number they need to sell to recoup their investment. Emirates cannot sustain the A380 by itself, much as you or Airbus might want that to be true. Airbus isn't likely to recoup its investment, and that's the bottom line...no matter how much some people enjoy flying the A380.
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Old Aug 11, 2014, 6:04 pm
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Originally Posted by bhrubin
Nonstops don't always cost more--it depends on the route and how much competition there is with supply vs demand. Using A380s on nonstops does permit more supply, after all, especially in Economy, so the economy price depends entirely on the increasing demand based on that supply. Too many A380s will push the supply of Economy seats too high, causing prices to drop which can again make the A380 less profitable. Right now, the A380 is best used when there is high demand for nonstop routes, usually between major hubs, that have limited slots. With less limited slots, the A380 isn't always the best nonstop choice.
1+ stops are often/usually the choice of price-oriented
(i wonder if there are statistics on this somewhere..)

i meant >
xxx-hub-hub
hub-hub-yyy
xxx-hub-hub-yyy
(vs 787 nonstops)
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Old Aug 11, 2014, 6:07 pm
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Originally Posted by UA Fan
EK's loads and fares don't seem too low, right?
Remember that the current climate for global business travel is just about as good as it gets. Profits up, interest rates low, mergers and acquisitions and bonuses busting out all over. These times never last.

Yet Emirates is currently operating 50 A380s and has firm orders in for 90 more. Emirates also runs the world's largest 777 fleet and has ordered 150 777X aircraft.

If all that capacity comes online as the world's economy tanks, or gets even marginally less rosy than it is right this minute, watch what that does to loads and fares, and the health of every top megacarrier catering to the business elite.
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Old Aug 11, 2014, 6:13 pm
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although, emirates and some other airlines are state-owned
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Old Aug 11, 2014, 6:56 pm
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Does Emirates get fuel subsidies from its govt?
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Old Aug 11, 2014, 7:16 pm
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Originally Posted by wco81
Does Emirates get fuel subsidies from its govt?
depends on where they want to recognize profits at the time?
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Old Aug 11, 2014, 7:53 pm
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Originally Posted by BearX220
Remember that the current climate for global business travel is just about as good as it gets. Profits up, interest rates low, mergers and acquisitions and bonuses busting out all over. These times never last.

Yet Emirates is currently operating 50 A380s and has firm orders in for 90 more. Emirates also runs the world's largest 777 fleet and has ordered 150 777X aircraft.

If all that capacity comes online as the world's economy tanks, or gets even marginally less rosy than it is right this minute, watch what that does to loads and fares, and the health of every top megacarrier catering to the business elite.

A good point before we continue to bash Emirates they do buy allot of Boeing, and face it all with all those seats on the 380 awards are easier to get. I got 2 FC from LAX to Dubai and on to South Africa for a very reasonable return. The same goes for AF I have flown two r/t's to Paris on the 380 and taking the 380 from South Africa to Paris and then on to LAX in Nov all award seats, my tired "butt" !! but it's worth it
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Old Aug 11, 2014, 8:44 pm
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Originally Posted by Kagehitokiri
how do seating configurations compare
It's Y so it's always a bit unpleasant for the most part. That's simply universal.

But you get so many bulkhead and exit rows, along with the interesting quirks (71D escape hatch!) that it's pretty easy to find a nicer seat. Where you get the extras is that it's still quiet in Y - well, from the aircraft at least. Quiet, smooth, and lots of acreage to roam about on if you want to go for a walk.
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Old Aug 11, 2014, 10:09 pm
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Originally Posted by SeriouslyLost
It's Y so it's always a bit unpleasant for the most part. That's simply universal.

But you get so many bulkhead and exit rows, along with the interesting quirks (71D escape hatch!) that it's pretty easy to find a nicer seat. Where you get the extras is that it's still quiet in Y - well, from the aircraft at least. Quiet, smooth, and lots of acreage to roam about on if you want to go for a walk.
sorry i meant between different carriers' A380s Y seating

i was surprised by how loud 757-200 was

Originally Posted by Kagehitokiri
http://www.emirates-executive.com/english/index.asp
emirates charter jet with emirates F suites
wonder if they will do something like that with A380

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/trave...ation-hub.html

Last edited by Kagehitokiri; Aug 12, 2014 at 1:14 am
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Old Aug 12, 2014, 12:29 am
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Originally Posted by BearX220
Remember that the current climate for global business travel is just about as good as it gets. Profits up, interest rates low, mergers and acquisitions and bonuses busting out all over. These times never last.

Yet Emirates is currently operating 50 A380s and has firm orders in for 90 more. Emirates also runs the world's largest 777 fleet and has ordered 150 777X aircraft.

If all that capacity comes online as the world's economy tanks, or gets even marginally less rosy than it is right this minute, watch what that does to loads and fares, and the health of every top megacarrier catering to the business elite.
Emirates is continually expanding its network and using Dubai as a hub for Europe, Africa, Asia and Americas. They feed in with 777s and use the hub to load up the 380s on the trunk routes.

Currently Emirates pricing is middle of the road. 10 years ago they were were discounting a lot. Even with the current pricing they are having high load factors and making life miserable for the legacy european and Asian airlines.

Even if the market were to downturn I think there is more room for Emirates to discount than most other airlines.

Ive flown in the Emirates 380 and some US airlines and I will fly Emirates in comparison every day of the week which is why they fill planes. All I can say is that US airlines are lucky they dont fly on competitive routes to Emirates as they would be having a much tougher time of it.
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Old Aug 12, 2014, 1:49 am
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Originally Posted by YVR Cockroach
Too much reinforcement of floors needed. Lots of wasted space and difficult to reach the top deck too. Really doubt there will be any value.
Didn't FedEx Express want to be the launch customer of the A380? Is the A380F really that different from simply converting a passenger A380?

Originally Posted by Always Flyin
I guess Southwest doesn't count? They are flying over 600 Boeing 737s and have around 500 more on order or option.
OP said (bolding mine)

Originally Posted by tmiw
I don't get the feeling that US carriers prefer Boeing. Most of the LCCs seem to fly all Airbus (Spirit, Virgin America, etc.) for example.
Just because most do one thing (fly Airbus) doesn't discount WN doing something else (fly Boeing)

Originally Posted by BearX220
Read the thread. Whether US carriers acquire an aircraft type or not is a minor factor in its success or failure given the global marketplace, and the A380 was not designed for American buyers anyway given the topography of their route systems. And with their (historically) weak financial conditions and lackluster service / competitive profile, the US carriers are not big leaders on the new-aircraft front anyway. Sole recent example being UA's Dreamliners.
Example or exception? I'd say UA, and CO before them, made a big deal about getting the 787 early on
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