cxn

i see it on my ding. time to check thanksgiving.

fun

Parallel dates from previous years for the next extension (which gets us through New Year's) were

July 24/03 - open to Jan 16/04
July 29/04 - open to Jan 14/05
Aug 18/05 - open to Jan 9/06

2004 did a weird thing with dates being extended again only two weeks after the previous extension.

So....what's the prediction for this time around?? Worded another way, how many days can I "safely" not check in every day w/o risking losing out....

BondGuy

Mar 13/03 - sked open to Sep 8/03
May 14/03 - sked open to Oct 24/03
June 26/03 - sked open to Dec 13/03
July 24/03 - sked open to Jan 16/04
Sep 19/03 - sked open to Mar 6/04
Oct 16/03 - sked open to April 2/04
Dec 11/03 - sked open to May 8/04
Jan 13/04 - sked open to Jun 11/04
Feb 13/04 - sked open to Aug 7/04
Mar 25/04 - sked open to Sep 13/04
May 5/04 - sked open to Oct 29/04
July 15/04 - sked open to Dec 11/04
July 29/04 - sked open to Jan 14/05
Sep 23/04 - sked open to Mar 3/05
Oct 25/04 - sked open to April 1/05
Dec 9/04 - sked open to June 6/05
Feb 17/05 - sked open to Aug 3/05
Mar 17/05 - sked open to Sep 12/05
May 12/05 - sked open to Oct 28/05
July 15/05 - sked open to Dec 12/05
Aug 18/05 - sked open to Jan 9/06
Sep 26/05 - sked open to Feb 3/06
Oct 27/05 - sked open to Mar 31/06
Dec 20/05 - sked open to June 9/06
Feb 23/06 - sked open to Aug 3/06
Apr 19/06 - sked open to Sep 12/06
May 26/06 - sked open to Oct 27/06
July 13/06 - sked open to Dec 10/06

Like many, I'm waiting for first week of Jan 07

doubleflyaway

I'm waiting for December 11! This was sort of a frustrating schedule extension for me. The outbound flight was included, but not the return.

SAPMAN

OK, those that understand WN, when should we mark our calendars to be watchful for the next (Christmas time dates) schedule extension?? I like to put on my calendar so I do no forget as I have some possible plans.

Nsx? gg, curb???

nsx

I put my guess, August 17, in the announcement thread.

BondGuy

Looking at the number of days between announcement dates for the 28 recorded dates:

Mean 45.1, median 43, mode 56, maximum 71, minimum 14, SD 15

Suggested next announcement date based on the above:

Mean Aug 27, median Aug 25, mode Sep 7, max Sep 22, min Jul 27

Frequency of days of the week for the announcement dates:

Mon 2, Tues 2, Wed 3, Thurs 17, Fri 4



Looking at the days from one 'open to' date to the next:

Mean 44, median 45, mode 46, max 70, min 25, SD 11

Suggested next 'open to' dates:

Mean Jan 23, median Jan 24, Mode Jan 25, max Feb 18, Min Jan 4

So...

... on the Thursday closest to the suggested announcement date (August 24 ??) we should have an announced schedule extension to the last week of January or perhaps mid-February.

gregorygrady

Wow BondGuy, I'm impressed with your statistical analysis. ^ I'm going with the expert and I'm gonna say 8/24!!!!!!

nsx

You can't go strictly by averages. There is a seasonality too. Some times of the year people are itching to book farther ahead, and other times they are not. The best indication is prior extensions at this time of year.

BondGuy

Perhaps if work is slow tomorrow I will try for a correlation between seasonality and time between schedule extensions

In any case, as I said, some pretty basis Stats 101 stuff, which is all I really know.

SAPMAN

one needs to take into consideration the full moon and leap years also.

BondGuy

Insufficient date to correlate leap years, but lunar cycles work well -- they correlate 100% with craziness cycles on FT

SAPMAN

We are at end of July - so next extension (impt for Xmas season) should be just around the corner. 17 Aug seems to be the consensus, but could they sneak it in on 10 Aug, or even defer to 24th?

Just a note to FTer to put it on calendar if you have travel during these times.

Boraxo

With all the excitement today, did anyone check to see if the schedule was extended?

Those who predicted Aug 17 or 24 are looking good....at least for another week.

curbcrusher

cabinpressure is right. Nevermind...