VX are going to cut their "off-peak capacity" by 10% and increase their "high demand" routes. I don't like to hear of capacity cuts, but it sounds like a good tactic to try increase overall loads.

I wonder if this will affect their planned ORD expansion? the ORD routes would probably be classed as "high demand".

I wouldn't be surprised to see the SAN flights substantially diminished. Every time I check, the seat map is pretty open.

Sounds like VX has a number of flights that are not even meeting their variable costs. Cannot be a good sign. I wonder what their cash burn rate is.

At least they are now cutting back the unprofitable flights and focusing more on the ones that make them the most cash. That'll help reduce the burn rate during this period of oil price insanity.

Focusing on highly profitable routes is part of their core business model. I guess they mis-calculated some routes and/or oil prices changed the equation on them.

Ah, it's time for the VX nay-sayers to come out.

The key sentence from the press release is kind of buried.

I will bet anyone a large sum of money VX projected to fly more in Q4 than in Q3, and they still do- they've just slowed it down some.

Adjusting your route mix to eliminate the slow midweek routes is good (especially if it means we can say goodbye to the dark A319).

It doesn't mean that at all. Some of the articles quote them as saying they will add the capacity to their high demand routes (hopefully, SEA-SFO since I keep running into sold out flights). That dark 319 will be my nemesis for a while longer.

lol! "Nemesis" is a good name for it.. I'll add that to the names list.

Well, without DOT data, it's hard to say what's likely to get cut, but that won't stop me from speculating irresponsibly.

Isn't the dark A319 limited to short haul intra-CA and SFO-LAS- they don't run it on *-SEA and *-JFK/IAD? And isn't it supposed to be gone into refit by the time Q4 rolls around in September, anyway? Some of the posts in the dark A319 thread seem to indicate that to be the case, and it would be the logical way to handle an expansion slowdown, especially since flying it kind of hurts the VX brand.

I would assume that some of the Q4 service they'll want to add is *-ORD, which wouldn't get a dark plane since those would be 3-4 hour flights, and the anecdotal reports I've heard is that midweek intra-CA/SFO-LAS is sort of light, which concurs with my limited observations (this summer, pricing out some of my future trips, I've found fairly cheap VX fares SEA-SFO-LAS midweek, but the prices are astronomical on weekends, and the LAS-SFO legs are packed on Sundays- in some cases, F is CHEAPER than Y).

It's been to SEA twice (as of last month). From what I understand, they haven't used it on true longhauls.

My take on the announcement is that capacity will remain the same in terms of the system, but capacity will get shifted around. I did not read anything about "expansion slowdown", although that seems to have been going on for a while now, as they haven't introduced any new stations.

Insanity ? Reality !

Huh. That's lame to put it on a 2-2.5 hour flight when there are lots of intra-CA/SFO-LAS flights to stick it on, though I guess AS and WN don't have Red. It makes sense, though- I know the LAS-SFO flight ends up becoming the SFO-SEA flight on occasion (I flew it- got off the plane from Y, told the FAs I'd be back, back on in F 50 minutes later).

I certainly hope they get a plane or three in the next few months and can send that one in for its Red fitting, though.

Like I said, it's buried in the press release. To me, "10 percent less capacity in the fourth quarter than... previously projected" sounds like slowing down their expansion and tweaking their growth plans- dropping some frequencies that aren't working so well and so on.

I agree, since they're basically talking about midweek flights, maybe some weekend flights (early morning Sunday flights and such), to be cutting "projected capacity" by 10%, they must be cutting the off-peak stuff by even more than that. What this seems to mean is planes sitting on the tarmac during off-peak times, so they don't think they can cover their variable costs by operating the flights.

David Cush says that there will be no specific routes targeted, but "some midday flights on Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday" on all routes will be reduced.

Here's a link to the interview:
http://travel.latimes.com/daily-deal...ca-ceo-d-2066/

On another note, SFO-SEA is reducing to 3X daily (the start up times) from the 5X that's starting tomorrow, 6/19-9/04, perfect for Alaska crusies.