Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, dont call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, dont call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Mar 8, 2020 | 11:19 am
#211
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Virginia City Highlands
Programs: Nothing anymore after 20 years
Posts: 7,190
BBC's article about situation in Italy. If below quote is not a wake up call, I don't know what else should be:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51787238
The health system is under immense strain in Lombardy, a northern region of 10 million people, where people are being treated in hospital corridors.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51787238
The health system is under immense strain in Lombardy, a northern region of 10 million people, where people are being treated in hospital corridors.
Last edited by invisible; Mar 8, 2020 at 11:50 am
Mar 8, 2020 | 11:49 am
#212
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Virginia City Highlands
Programs: Nothing anymore after 20 years
Posts: 7,190
If you are surprised why Japan currently has much lower number of cases, here is one explanation posted in Japan forum:
My wife works for a Japanese company (number 2 in the field in Japan) and they have been told in no uncertain terms that if they test positive for coronavirus, it will disrupt numerous projects at the company and cause a lot of trouble, which will then be reflected in their evaluation - so basically people have been ordered to not be tested. Working from home isn't allowed and all business trips are still on.
Mar 8, 2020 | 11:53 am
#213
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Europe
Posts: 234
Magnitudes greater than 5000 people though for any decent degree of confidence. Equally changes in care protocols as time progresses and we understand the disease more may change the figure a fair bit...
I think a bit lower down from your comment there's a post from nk15 which shows the difference between South Korea, Wuhan Princess and Chinese data samples on death rates. This shows you how diverse the death rate range can be- from 0.7% to 2.3% dependent on where it was caught. This illustrates the difficulty in estimating at the current stage.
Last edited by enemigo; Mar 8, 2020 at 11:54 am Reason: Added quote
Mar 8, 2020 | 12:19 pm
#214
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 11,690
I flew about 2 weeks ago, the UA non-rev employee next to me coughed from time to time the entire flight and had no mask on. I hope people will be more aware now and be considerate enough to consider a mask when they cough. With allergy season coming up, this is going to be interesting.
Mar 8, 2020 | 12:20 pm
#215
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Hawai'i Nei
Programs: Au: HA, UA, Marriott, Hilton; GE
Posts: 7,800
Mar 8, 2020 | 12:26 pm
#216
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2014
Programs: Top Tier with all 3 alliances
Posts: 19,525
Mar 8, 2020 | 12:41 pm
#217
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: BOS
Posts: 15,027
What happened to the notion of TRIAGE? Was it tossed out of the window??
Mar 8, 2020 | 12:48 pm
#218
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 60
Does anyone know if Violet Water would be effective to wipe down plane seats? Would Clorox wipes be a better choice?
There is no Purell or rubbing alcohol available.
The violet water:
Brand name: Crusellas
Ingredients : SDA Alcohol 40B, Water, Fragrance, FD&C Violet 2, FD&C Red 40)
The Clorox wipes are on the EPA list of disinfectants for COVID-19, referenced in this CDC document:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...infection.html
I'd be grateful for any insights.
There is no Purell or rubbing alcohol available.
The violet water:
Brand name: Crusellas
Ingredients : SDA Alcohol 40B, Water, Fragrance, FD&C Violet 2, FD&C Red 40)
The Clorox wipes are on the EPA list of disinfectants for COVID-19, referenced in this CDC document:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...infection.html
I'd be grateful for any insights.
Mar 8, 2020 | 12:58 pm
#219
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2014
Programs: Top Tier with all 3 alliances
Posts: 19,525
……...
Although I agree that we don't know the denominator of true infected, Diamond Princess is the best 'contained' point outbreak we have: the demographics are skewed, to be fair, since it was a much older than average population. But the number of asymptomatic individuals appears to be ~50%, it _may_ be a bit higher with a younger demographic, but I think the mortality rate is going to be well above 0.2%, and could well be 1% or even slightly higher, and that is under optimal care scenarios. The hospitalization rate is the biggest concern, as I and others have said all along: this has serious implications for _all cause mortality_. And I don't think this rate will be under 3%, which is just too high for us to cope with.
……………………………………...
Closing shot: disappointed that the Cruise industry really believes enhanced screening can prevent further outbreaks, especially since we know full well that half of those infected won't have a fever, and even 15% of those coming to medical attention won't have a cough,.....
Although I agree that we don't know the denominator of true infected, Diamond Princess is the best 'contained' point outbreak we have: the demographics are skewed, to be fair, since it was a much older than average population. But the number of asymptomatic individuals appears to be ~50%, it _may_ be a bit higher with a younger demographic, but I think the mortality rate is going to be well above 0.2%, and could well be 1% or even slightly higher, and that is under optimal care scenarios. The hospitalization rate is the biggest concern, as I and others have said all along: this has serious implications for _all cause mortality_. And I don't think this rate will be under 3%, which is just too high for us to cope with.
……………………………………...
Closing shot: disappointed that the Cruise industry really believes enhanced screening can prevent further outbreaks, especially since we know full well that half of those infected won't have a fever, and even 15% of those coming to medical attention won't have a cough,.....
Mar 8, 2020 | 1:09 pm
#220
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 11,690
This popped up on my Youtube feed this morning:
Doctor talks about both the "we don't have a problem" and "we are in big trouble" sides and is kind of entertaining. (Not sure how informative for those who are pretty aware already.)
Doctor talks about both the "we don't have a problem" and "we are in big trouble" sides and is kind of entertaining. (Not sure how informative for those who are pretty aware already.)
Last edited by username; Mar 8, 2020 at 1:28 pm
Mar 8, 2020 | 1:15 pm
#221
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Pacific Northwest
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, AS Plat, AA EP, Bonvoy Plat, Hilton Dia, Hyatt Glob, IHG Plat, ...
Posts: 21,435
Mar 8, 2020 | 1:38 pm
#222
Suspended
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 31,464
Does anyone know if Violet Water would be effective to wipe down plane seats? Would Clorox wipes be a better choice?
There is no Purell or rubbing alcohol available.
The violet water:
Brand name: Crusellas
Ingredients : SDA Alcohol 40B, Water, Fragrance, FD&C Violet 2, FD&C Red 40)
The Clorox wipes are on the EPA list of disinfectants for COVID-19, referenced in this CDC document:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...infection.html
I'd be grateful for any insights.
There is no Purell or rubbing alcohol available.
The violet water:
Brand name: Crusellas
Ingredients : SDA Alcohol 40B, Water, Fragrance, FD&C Violet 2, FD&C Red 40)
The Clorox wipes are on the EPA list of disinfectants for COVID-19, referenced in this CDC document:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...infection.html
I'd be grateful for any insights.
Mar 8, 2020 | 1:47 pm
#223
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Wisconsin
Programs: Hilton Diamond, Delta PM
Posts: 330
Violet water is a cologne, not a disinfectant. I'm going to go with an emphatic no it would not be effective. And because it is a cologne/fragrance, using it is probably more likely to impact allergies of other passengers, causing them to sneeze. Please don't do this.
Mar 8, 2020 | 1:56 pm
#224
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 11,690
I have some questions:
1 - while it is not meaningful, I wonder if there are numbers on how many tests are done in the US (i.e. not just the confirmed cases)
2 - in other parts of the world, they are doing multiple tests to be sure. Depending on how someone swabbed and when during the infection, tests can come back negative for those infected. Is the US just doing 1 test and call it good? If multiple tests are done, how does that affect the "tests done" number?
1 - while it is not meaningful, I wonder if there are numbers on how many tests are done in the US (i.e. not just the confirmed cases)
2 - in other parts of the world, they are doing multiple tests to be sure. Depending on how someone swabbed and when during the infection, tests can come back negative for those infected. Is the US just doing 1 test and call it good? If multiple tests are done, how does that affect the "tests done" number?
Mar 8, 2020 | 2:41 pm
#225
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Pacific Northwest
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, AS Plat, AA EP, Bonvoy Plat, Hilton Dia, Hyatt Glob, IHG Plat, ...
Posts: 21,435
I have some questions:
1 - while it is not meaningful, I wonder if there are numbers on how many tests are done in the US (i.e. not just the confirmed cases)
2 - in other parts of the world, they are doing multiple tests to be sure. Depending on how someone swabbed and when during the infection, tests can come back negative for those infected. Is the US just doing 1 test and call it good? If multiple tests are done, how does that affect the "tests done" number?
1 - while it is not meaningful, I wonder if there are numbers on how many tests are done in the US (i.e. not just the confirmed cases)
2 - in other parts of the world, they are doing multiple tests to be sure. Depending on how someone swabbed and when during the infection, tests can come back negative for those infected. Is the US just doing 1 test and call it good? If multiple tests are done, how does that affect the "tests done" number?
1.I believe the CDC stopped releasing the number of tests performed several days ago.
2. according to news reports, 2+tests per person. E.g., https://us.cnn.com/2020/03/08/politi...rus/index.html
However, federal officials still are not giving a number of how many people have been tested. Each person has at least two tests given to them to determine if they have the virus -- a nose swab and a mouth swab.