There is no official travel warning for any German district as of yet. In stark contrast, Italy is severely restricting any travel to & from & within many Northern territories including Milan and the heart of its economy and a quarter of its population until April 3 for now.
In a week's time let's watch until other European countries like France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, UK and others need to act in a similar way since case numbers grow too fast and hospital capacities will mandate stricter measures everywhere unfortunately.

Exactly this scenario has been predicted in this thread several weeks ago. Now once we are having on hands repetition of (almost) Wuhan style lockdown in a democratic society, we will see how much load healthcare system can sustain and if it is possible to mitigate/delay the spread using these measures.

I wouldn�t call it severe. Trains and flights are still running and anyone with a work, medical or other good reason to need to travel is allowed to.

It will likely be ineffective. Hopefully other countries will learn from that what public health authorities and experts have been saying all along - travel restrictions are unnecessary and ineffective.

And then we have case of China... Now what?

How can you say that travel restrictions are unnecessary and ineffective when -for instance- 85% of the Covid-19 cases in the Netherlands can be traced back to Northern Italy? Had we had travel restrictions since early February the Covid-19 spread would most likely have been much, much lower.

that�s complete speculation.

I know it�s from the quote, but I really take issue with �highly infectious virus�. Measles, smallpox, these are highly infectious, R0 up above 7. Corona is down around �bad influenza� levels of infectiousness, R0 of 3.8 in the highest estimate.

per usual, you say it better than I could.

Actually very few people wear masks out in SG, compared to TW/HK. But they're careful in every other way. Goes to show that mask-wearing is really quite meaningless.

Here's a quick look at temperatures of the hot-spots around the world.

It's more for discussion purpose, than anything else. Plenty of inconsistencies for sure, but interesting never-the-less.
It seems interesting [at the very least] that almost ALL major outbreaks happened (and are happening) in geographical areas with low mean temperatures.
Apart from the Diamond Princess and California, there doesn't seem to be any major outbreaks in warmer "climates".

If there is a distinct correlation between low temperatures and COVID-19�s susceptibility to spreading, there could be a reasonable conclusion that when temperatures rise, the spread will slow and potentially cease. We can only hope.

Countries selected are the top 10 listings by confirmed cases from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Interesting is that there are no countries in the Southern Hemisphere at the top of the list (Northern Hemisphere = Winter, Southern Hemisphere = Summer)

Notes:

- Temperature sources are average mean temperatures January and February taken from https://www.timeanddate.com They are not actual 2020 numbers, but averages from 1985-2015
- Temperatures are mean-temperatures for January, February, and March, in �C, showing daily low and high
- Region/cities of each country were chosen based on various factors, but mainly because they seem to represent their respective countries� major outbreaks
- There seems to be a misconception that reported, confirmed cases represent actual and accurate current infections. This is FAR from the truth. Every country handles the criteria for testing differently, and there is a also a lack of testing kits. There is a significant delay in the actual number of infections vs. the reported cases.


Confirmed Cases by Country, Territory, or Conveyance
(taken around 9am, March 8, 2020)





1) CHINA; Wuhan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E...mainland_China






SOUTH KOREA; Daegu
Most cases (~75%) are in Daegu
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c...in_South_Korea






IRAN; Qom
Limited information, but Qom believed to be a major source of the outbreak, especially early on
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c...tbreak_in_Iran






ITALY; Milan
Capital of the Lombardy region
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c...break_in_Italy






FRANCE; Creil
�As of 2 March 2020, 67 people were infected by COVID-19 in the Hauts-de-France region. This figure, the highest in France, was linked to a major cluster originating in the city of Creil, in the Oise, whose source remains unknown.�
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c...reak_in_France






GERMANY; D�sseldorf
North Rhine-Westphalia�s capital and close proximity to �Especially affected areas, as defined by the Robert Koch Institute�
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c...eak_in_Germany



SPAIN; Madrid
Spread out quite well across the country. Madrid = Capital.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c...break_in_Spain





JAPAN; Sapporo and Tokyo
Japan is interesting; most cases are listed in northern, colder Hokkaido prefecture. But that is the whole prefecture not a city. Sapporo is included as the capital of Hokkaido, and Tokyo is included as it also has a high number of cases, but is more temperate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c...break_in_Japan

Sapporo, then Tokyo




USA; Seattle and NYC
�Washington currently has the highest number of cases and deaths out of any state in the country,...�
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c...hington_(state)

NYC has the highest number of new cases two days in a row (as of March 8).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_c..._United_States

Seattle, then NYC




Anomalies:

- Diamond Princess
- California

Diamond Princess
(Officially 696 cases, 6 deaths)
It has been called a �petridish� and an incubator for COVID-19; the close [proximity] living conditions, the buffet-style food consumption, the centralized air-conditioning, the potentially unsanitary standards of the crew, etc. could all have contributed to the large number of infections.

California:
Needs further investigation. A few cases from Diamond Princess, but plenty of unrelated cases.
Remains one of the anomalies.

Sure, but nothing that you wouldn't expect going to Guatemala any other time.

well, anecdotal “evidence” is often not particularly meaningful: I was on an AS flight from LAX a week ago and someone three rows ahead of me caught every 30ish seconds for about half an hour. We were not diverted, no call for a doctor aboard was made, the FAs didn’t put on hazmat suits, no one was reseated, no face mask was forced upon or offered to the “offender”. Guess we Americans have heard coughing fits before, too.

While the Chinese culture and language isn't completely foreign to me, I'm certainly not an expert. My understanding, which would pale in comparison to yours, is this concept of familial piety and sacrifice for one's family, to a degree, extends to one's country, hence "國家," which is in stark contrast to our philosophical approach here in the west. Until you pointed it out, it hadn't occurred to me, whether those in the East realize it or not, it's a concept deeply ingrained since early childhood for countless generations. It isn't inconceivable that, for a variety of factors including but not limited to this difference in philosophical approach, SE Asia will likely handle something like this more efficiently than the West, specifically America. So, in this sense, the modeling of how this transpires in SG/TW/HK may not directly translate or correlate to how events may unfold here.

To be clear: I'm not suggesting one approach is better than the other, but just different. Again, to reiterate, absent of a Gov't edict, I steadfastly believe in each person's right to make his/her decision that is best for his/her situation and family.

For me, I can assert unequivocally this has been, far and away, the single most valuable thread of my entire FT experience. I can't thank enough the generous contributions from the Pros, in particular yours during the early days which have proved invaluable in helping me understand what we're dealing with. I understand and appreciate your position, and would likewise follow suit--this isn't to imply my minimal contributions were anywhere near the value of yours and others. Personally, as with all things, the natural progression here has, for me, lead to the point of diminishing returns.

In other news, Matthew Smith of Wuhan Princess semi-fame appears to be on the way back to the US. Last few tweets are from Narita.

https://mobile.twitter.com/mjswhitebread

That's what I would expect. Which was why I was surprised by the SFO comment. Either that was bogus or just SFO.