lost_in_translation

LX and OS are selling LHR-BKK for £1,500 in J for many dates at the moment, tempted by that.

speedbird006

beepee

escape4

I don't disagree with you makrom. I was simply pointing out that crediting to BAEC instead of QRPC might not make that big of a difference as one might have expected based on the big headlines of devaluation. Especially if it's during a 2x 3x 4x miles promo from QR.

Now looking at the details for what you listed (keep in mind we are talking about whether to credit QR flights to QR or to BA):
- status points: BAEC won't be better for someone who does not fly BA 4x per year, or who does not want to fly BA 4x per year because the product is inferior. Won't get status anyway. So for me, QR wins over BA.
- award availability & flexibility: no debate here. BA hands down.
- expiration policy: QR does not expire if you are Plat at the moment, so it's a push with BA. For now
- reliability: given that QR just went through a massive depreciation, if I was a betting man and I was forced to give odds of who is more likely to devalue in the next three years, I would say BA 60% vs QR 40%. In the long-term that is another story, I agree that with QR is likely to do again what they just did. But it's not so common to see an airline or hotel program devaluate twice in 2 years. They wait a bit more. So in the short term I think my Avios balance is more exposed than my now devalued qmiles balance. If that makes any sense
- cost for short haul awards: the value of Avios vs qmiles I was quoting from TPG is an overall value which considers all types of awards in total. Avios are worth about twice qmiles approximately, short haul medium haul and long haul all considered into a single number. Perhaps for short haul the value of Avios is more than double what it is for qmiles, but then I could find just as well an area where qmiles are worth more than half of Avios, for example medium to long haul with OW partners.

So my conclusion is that for the moment either I credit my QR flights to AA and accept that the tier multiplier won't kick in for a while because I do not have top tier status. Or continue with QR. But as someone who does not want to fly BA or AA much, then BAEC is not an attractive choice. BA has been trying to make itself more like a LCC in the last few years and it has succeeded in a number of ways. I am not interested in their product, only in their frequent flyer program, but I dread those 4 flights.

The one thing which is very clear though is that I won't credit JL, CX, MH, AY to QRPC anymore. But for QR it's not as clear-cut if there is a mileage multiplier promo active.

ChocolateFactory

IAN-UK

You don't address the elephant in the room: QR is in an existential crisis, BA is not. Should the airline reduce its network range, your Qmiles will be near worthless, if it folds, they'll be toast.

escape4

If they fold, then yes you are correct. If they reduce the network, it will likely not change the value of qmiles much because at this stage the best value is on OW redemptions. With a limited network I would reduce the number of QR flights I take but not the value of the qmiles I have now. It would make it more difficult to reach OWE. But I can worry about it when I get there if we are only talking about status because we have at least one year to shift our patterns. Right now I am only one RT away from earning QR Plat through the end of 2019, so I could start earning with another program in the entire 2019 calendar year and never have a gap and still retain OWE at all times with at least one program.

So back to the main argument, will they fold? I think the odds of that are very low. It would require the government to pull the plug and I cannot see that happening. Maybe this is where I am wrong in my assessment.

I think the most realistic scenario where qmiles would take a further hit is if QR gets out of OW and reduces the network at the same time. As long as they stay in OW then I think the downside is limited.

kcdc12

I am a 5YR QR Plat and been promoting the airline despite their terrible customer service and subpar mileage program. The actual flight experience is great but that may be enough for the casual holiday traveler, not the monthly QR flier. The recent additions are the latest downgrade - QR has eroded every aspect of its program from upgrades, redemptions, real time/ on the phone customer service, etc.

A simple change request means writing to some generic email account/ link. My last three attempts have been unanswered or I have received some irrelevant apology. The wider problem is that no one is empowered to make any decisions at QR.

Despite the low quality of the actual flights of US-based airlines, 1K or Plat members do get outstanding customer service. If they US carriers can improve their in-flight experience, there is a real opportunity to regain market shares from the ME3.

In short, started winding down my QR business and would not recommend QR to anyone at this point.

Dr. HFH

QR is in no danger of folding. This is a status/prestige/face thing for the al Thani family. And the country can easily afford to support the airline without even noticing the expenditure. I see no circumstances under which the al Thani family would consider even for a moment the idea of withdrawing financial support for QR.

makrom

I don't disagree that QRPC is still better for someone who flies only/mainly with QR, at least for now. I mentioned BAEC because of the easier status and the better reliability, not because of the better mileage earn/spend ratio.
Sure, if you don't get 4 BA legs per year it's not worth it and I realize that this can be a nontrivial requirement depending on where one lives. In Europe, this is a city trip (or 2 if flying to LON) and can be had for as little as 100€ during sales.
The non-expiration of Qmiles is kinda tricky. It works for as long as you maintain Platinum, but dare to drop down to Gold once and all your accumulated miles will be wiped out. This is much more inconvenient than having validity extended by 3 years.
As for further devaluation, while you are right that steps in rapid succession are uncommon, so is devaluating by as much as QRPC did in a single step, and so is doing so unannounced. The introduction of additional award fees can be seen as included in this step I guess, but just some months ago, they removed lounge access for upgrades, so QRPC doesn't seem to care that much about what is common.

makrom

Yet now that their books are somewhat more open than they used to be, it will be harder for Qatar to just pump billions into the airline. Obviously they can try to justify it by some extraordinary circumstances due to the blockade, but they would need to show some good faith by at least making it look like they are trying. The QRPC balances were probably significant liabilities in the books, even though these balances could be worked off by QR for comparatively little cost if people actually spend their Qmiles on QR flights. But due to this haircut, QR's books probably look like they made significant efforts by reducing liabilities by as much as they did.

escape4

I was not aware of that. Thanks for the heads up!

spec119

[QUOTE=

In short, started winding down my QR business and would not recommend QR to anyone at this point.[/QUOTE]

Couldn't agree more I've got a couple of LGW/LHR -BKK trips one on EK next Month and one in BA in WT+ will compare services

spec119

I read that CX MPC are planning similar on June 22nd

IAN-UK

Running a white elephant will do little for prestige. As it becomes obvious that the carrier is a sink hole of subsidies, the US routes look vulnerable. These represent important network feed.

Unless there's a change in regional politics, then the airline will limp along to 2022: though some structural change might be expected before then. After that, who knows?