TravelDream

Just for comparison, I thought I'd look at other numbers for flights operating UK-Doha in March.

So Cardiff's load factor was 55% in March.

Birmingham had 11,485 passengers meaning a load factor of 73%. That's a pretty big disparity considering the numbers were very close last July and August. Is Cardiff rally that much more seasonal?

Edinburgh had 11,523 passengers giving a load factor of 66%.

Manchester had 25,893 passengers. I'm not 100% on the schedule, but I presume there were 62 A350-900 and 18 787-8 flights in March.That gives a load factor of 59%. Not a great LF - However, I'm not sure if QR operated all of those flights.

London Gatwick had 24,039 passengers. That gives a LF of 77%. Perhaps not unsurprising as Gatwick is always cheaper than LHR.

Heathrow had 89,779 passengers. I'm not able to work out LF accurately as the flights are too variable. If you took this week's schedule to be the same as the one in March (2xA359, 1xA380, 1x77W and 1xA351 daily), it would give a LF of 77% just like LGW.

Of course, none of these figure mention yield.

ft101

All of the others have alternative Gulf carriers operating so despite Cardiff being a relatively young route, it still doesn't bode well.

celtic_warrior

Cardiff has had enough time to bed in now. There should be no excuses for load factors in 2019.

Schwann

Surprised they didnt start the route on the A319LR although I appreciate they don't have many.

msm2000uk

Bear in mind that the aircraft will contain cargo opposed to just passengers, and you'll realise that the passenger numbers dont tell the full story.

M

Schwann

Must be all that Pembrokeshire cauliflower.

bmibaby737

TravelDream

As I said above, the anecdotal reports are all over the place. Obviously the LF is extremely variable and we should follow the CAA's figures to see the full picture.

I've said for a long time that I think the route will stick until at least 2022 and that it is an ideal route for the A321LR.

AAB has already said the business cabin on the A321 will be in a 1-1 configuration and will offer 'unparalleled privacy'. The total capacity has not been revealed, but I imagine they would have around 160 seats.

If that plane (A321LR with 160 seats) had operated the route in March, instead of the 787, the LF would have been 86% and we'd all be applauding the route with it having the highest LF of any UK route in that month. Even if it had operated daily, the LF would have been 61% and higher than MAN.

It's also ideal as a route which 'shares' a 787 and A321. With Cardiff getting the 787 in the summer and a SE Asian destination like Krabi, Penang or Chiang Mai getting it in the winter and the A321LR in the other season.

Cheetah_SA

bmibaby737

TravelDream

Those figures are right and definitely a positive turn from the previous two months.

There were 7,884 passengers in April and there were 22 return flights. That means an average of 179.2 per flight and a LF of 71%.

By comparison, Birmingham had 12,448 passengers which equals a LF of 81%. The figures are looking a lot more comparable now.

These numbers hopefully bode well for the summer.

ft101

School holidays effect?

IAN-UK

These monthly views certainly give a better picture of passenger demand than the occasionally (frightening) anecdotal report from a single flight.

But single monthly statistics are vulnerable to all sorts of outside influences on regional as well as wider propensities to travel. National holidays, school and university term dates are among events that can have a disproportionate impact on a niche airport and airline combination.

It ill be great if Cardiff does become an established component of QR's network, but perhaps not quite the moment to get hopes up.

bmibaby737

Be interesting to see what happens when Qatar get their A321 LR's. Could make sense to run 787's in the Summer and A321's during the quieter months.

IAN-UK

Sure it could make sense. But as there's not an infinite fleet of aircraft types the airline can pull into service, there's always likely slight, or more severe mismatches between route and flight equipment. The A380s they saddled themselves with are a case in point.

I think we tend to forget that airlines have limited resources in terms of aircraft. Sensibly, they try to employ these assets to make the most of the hours they fly. So rather than allocate aircraft to improve a route's performance, they have also an eye on maximising an aircraft's revenue contribution. In short, it's possible the new aircraft are a better fit elsewhere in the network.