kamarge

Hi all,

We're looking at flights to USA, middle of next year from MEL. Checking multiple dates for the Qantas direct flight to LAX, we see prices are listed at ~AU$2800 return economy ("sale" fares) which is already really high, especially given its so far out still.

Yes this is during mid-year school holidays so we expect them to be high, but this still seems higher than expected given the planes are likely empty at the moment. I also checked weeks before and after and they are roughly the same price. There is little variation in prices regardless of date.

Are these just the new normal "sale" MEL-LAX Qantas base prices? I know Qantas is price gauging recently but this is still quite a bit higher than what we've paid over the past year or two.

Taking a connection on another airline (via Fiji or NZ) is an option and a bit cheaper, but still around the $2k mark.

Firemansam

Looking at flights for July and April school holidays they all seem to be around the same.price. I think your cheapest options are Fiji or Singapore air.
Singapore is obviously very out of the way.
I highly doubt Qantas direct will get any cheaper, perhaps United or American will have cheaper flights.
If you really do need to save money why not book Fiji?

og

And if you listen to the QF PR machine, they’ll be telling you that it’s everyone else’s fault that the fares are high - and nothing to do with the airline itself.

kamarge

Not just school holidays, seems to be similar price most months which is why it seems a bit suspicious. Those prices off peak seem really high but maybe demand is just that strong.

United and American are not showing cheaper (or even available most days) right now but via Fiji or NZ are a bit cheaper.

All while record profits :-(

LondonAussie

The June-September period is peak Summer holiday travel season for the Northern Hemisphere, and for April although the US doesn't really do Easter holidays they have Spring Break around that time, so there is high demand for travel on both sides of the planet. Although I'm not sure if that high demand extends to flights in and out of Australia at that time.

Koru Flyer

My hunch is that booking 9 or so months out you will be paying top of the market. Not the very top, but high for discretionary spend. I would see how the next 3 months goes and jump on any sale fares. Also if price is more important than status , lounges etc, then broaden to AA, UA, DL, NZ, FJ, air Tahiti, etc. if you destination is not west coat but further east, look at SQ, CX, ANA, JL as you could do a two flight hop to the east coast which will be longer but you would avoid LAX and a US airline trans con.

also why connection is a pain, look at via Syd and bne.

kamarge

I think that makes a lot of sense and thanks for the advice, I think that's the strategy I will pursue.

Firemansam

Just to expand further on that
When looking at fares the other day before posting to this thread SQ had some of the cheapest fares going. If the extra hours in the air are worth the reduced price I would absolutely be looking in their direction.

Koru Flyer

If looking at premium cabins is an options, Philippines’s air has a sharp sub $5k fare, and Jal and Ana are just north of $6k. Probably same goes for cheap Y fares. No need to pay the ridiculous amount QF seems to want. AA had codeshares on QF metal for about half the price of the QF prime.

kamarge

Yeh we will definitely consider all/any other options as well. Not bound to Qantas at all, although do prefer OneWorld if possible as I have status, but with prices this high, I'm also fine flying basically any other airline if the price + travel schedule is reasonable good.

Unfortunately not looking at premium cabins for this trip as we're flying with the kids so 4 of us total and premium will add up.

kamarge

To follow up on this. I ended up waiting. Qantas has a sale on now till Sept 26 and even though the sale dates do not include school holidays, the prices dropped significantly.

Prime school holiday dates I see directs MEL-LAX for $1950 and 1 stop for $1600, which is reasonable. But for a departure date slightly before school holidays I found fares for $1250 return! Awesome price so all booked now :⁠-⁠)