Will they shoot it down?
#61
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Even if they didn't know at first that the plane was only a Cessna and acknowledging that even a Cessna can carry dangerous stuff (such as one of the small nuclear weapons in the U.S. arsenal), the notion that everybody in DC runs around in pure panic over an incursion into restricted airspace is just too much. I wonder what they do when somebody phones in a bomb threat, which must happen from time to time. Do they evacuate for that, too? Better safe than sorry, etc., etc.
We long ago became a nation of idiots -- and now we're cowards, too.
Bruce
We long ago became a nation of idiots -- and now we're cowards, too.
Bruce
#62
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Maybe Bart will chime in here
One last point that I've posted before bears repeating now: On 9/11/01, the Federal government shut down virtually anything that could remotely be considered a "terrorist target." Examples are the Washington Monument, Statue of Liberty, Independence Hall, etc. It's quite a long list. They demanded that San Antonio close the Alamo, but the proud Texans refused. They weren't going to let the terrorists win. And they were quite right. I wish that more people had that attitude, instead of being whining babies searching for comfort from the mommy government. Phooey!
Bruce
Bruce
#63
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Buildings and monuments can be repaired and rebuilt....so far no one is trying to rebuild our national psyche, which appears to be shattered. The administration just uses this fear to their advantage, instead of trying to restore our backbone. Contrast the leadership of Bush with Roosevelt and Churchill...I think they would be ashamed of us.
Panic, cowardice, suspicion....not words anyone would generally associate with our country. It was bad enough when some of us looked at our neighbors with disbelief that they lived in fear, but now we all look like fools as a nation in front of the world.
I think the damage done to our reputation from this event will continue to grow and deepen within the interntional community. I am sure there are folks here who might think the DC authorities did the right thing, and complaining about its execution is an over-reaction, and perhaps they might say 'to hell' with the international community....but reputation and appearances do matter - for a nation that passes itself off as the leader of the free world and a source of strength, power and authority - to show its leadership and citizens running from the capital in a screaming panic while being buzzed by an object that is almost a toy, can only be interpreted as a sign of weakness, excess and silly. I think our global reputation is damaged, and to make it worse, we are being laughed at.
4 years after 9/11 and we still can't properly react to a threat.
What would have been so hard to just:
1) assess the threat and analyze the likelyhood of real danger
2) intercept the aircraft to keep it away from the capital
3) conduct an orderly, managed evacuation of the capital if it was really deemed necessary
As they say, appearances are everything
Panic, cowardice, suspicion....not words anyone would generally associate with our country. It was bad enough when some of us looked at our neighbors with disbelief that they lived in fear, but now we all look like fools as a nation in front of the world.
I think the damage done to our reputation from this event will continue to grow and deepen within the interntional community. I am sure there are folks here who might think the DC authorities did the right thing, and complaining about its execution is an over-reaction, and perhaps they might say 'to hell' with the international community....but reputation and appearances do matter - for a nation that passes itself off as the leader of the free world and a source of strength, power and authority - to show its leadership and citizens running from the capital in a screaming panic while being buzzed by an object that is almost a toy, can only be interpreted as a sign of weakness, excess and silly. I think our global reputation is damaged, and to make it worse, we are being laughed at.
4 years after 9/11 and we still can't properly react to a threat.
What would have been so hard to just:
1) assess the threat and analyze the likelyhood of real danger
2) intercept the aircraft to keep it away from the capital
3) conduct an orderly, managed evacuation of the capital if it was really deemed necessary
As they say, appearances are everything
#64
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Originally Posted by dhuey
I see no insanity. I see an incredibly stupid mistake and reasonable precautions.
By the way, Doppy, this from the CNN article:
[I]Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said Capitol Police "pulled me out of my shoes" when they whisked the leadership off to a secure location.
By the way, Doppy, this from the CNN article:
[I]Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said Capitol Police "pulled me out of my shoes" when they whisked the leadership off to a secure location.
They only secure the party and political leadership. The other 500+ guys are on their own. Sorry, I should have been more specific.
Last edited by Doppy; May 12, 2005 at 8:43 am
#65
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Originally Posted by Doppy
Bolding mine.
They only secure the party and political leadership. The other 500+ guys are on their own. Sorry, I should have been more specific.
They only secure the party and political leadership. The other 500+ guys are on their own. Sorry, I should have been more specific.
#66
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Ok, I'm not a security expert, but I do have experience flying a Cessna 152 -- and I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express.
As far as threat assessment:
When the aircraft was first picked up on Radar nearing or entering the DC ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) they should have the ability to pick up the speed of the aircraft and how fast it is moving.
A GA aircraft, such as a Cessna 152 would be moving slowly and would be at a lower altitude. A large jet aircraft, say a commercial airliner, would be moving significantly faster, likely at a higher altitude. If fast moving at a lower altitude, then you know something really isn't right.
I'm going to assume the transponder was likely on and picked up by ATC, but not sqwaking the discrete transponder code which should have been obtained prior to entering the DC ADIZ.
From a risk standpoint, one can make an educated guess this aircraft is likely a small, slow moving, general aviation aircraft. Knowing this the authorities should be able to determine any potential threat is low (vs a fast moving aircraft with no transponder on such as what happened on 9/11).
As it is moving slow, there was time to scamble jets. Once the jets ID & intercept the aircraft, it could be relayed it is indeed low risk. Also note that on average, three aircraft per day violate the DC ADIZ by mistake. In this case, this is just what happened, but this was a more serious violation by entering the FRZ (Flight Restricted Zone).
Aside from it being a pilot lost, not in communication with appropriate ATC nor sqwaking the discrete transponder code, which was the case, the few potential worst case scenario's: (1) suicidal pilot wanting to fly into building: result, minimal damage or (2) aircraft has explosives on-board with intention to fly into building: potential significant damage, loss of lives.
The second scenario cannot be ruled out, but from a risk management standpoint based on the fact there are three DC ADIZ violations a day on average, the most likely scenario is a lost pilot.
In this thread, it's been mentioned it could have been a small plane wanting to drop a "chemical" or "bio" weapon. If this was the case, the absolute worst thing to do would be to have people running into the streets.
Secondly, firing at an aircraft to down it, especially a Cessna 152 which is of low risk could potentially result in more damage in the end depending on where the debris lands.
In conclusion, what happened on the ground was a gross over-reaction, IMHO, and made us look like fools worldwide. The North Koreans were probably laughing at this. In the case of the Kentucky Govonor's plane, setting aside the miscommunications, this would have been a much higher threat (faster moving, no transponder).
The way things were handled in the air was 100% appropriate. While I am not an expert, the above is my view based on what I know about what happened. I'm sure those with ATC/DHS/FAA/NORAD overseeing the DC ADIZ know more about what specifically happened. It sounds like all the agencies were in contact and all in communications yesterday and did a good job from the air side of things -- but on the ground side, I believe there was a gross overreaction.
In closing, while the CFI who is technically the PIC and the student pilot were not charged of any crime, I sincerely hope the FAA speaks with the student about the seriousness of what happened and the CFI gets reamed by the FAA - pull his license & fine him.
With Regards,
SDF_Traveler
As far as threat assessment: When the aircraft was first picked up on Radar nearing or entering the DC ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) they should have the ability to pick up the speed of the aircraft and how fast it is moving.
A GA aircraft, such as a Cessna 152 would be moving slowly and would be at a lower altitude. A large jet aircraft, say a commercial airliner, would be moving significantly faster, likely at a higher altitude. If fast moving at a lower altitude, then you know something really isn't right.
I'm going to assume the transponder was likely on and picked up by ATC, but not sqwaking the discrete transponder code which should have been obtained prior to entering the DC ADIZ.
From a risk standpoint, one can make an educated guess this aircraft is likely a small, slow moving, general aviation aircraft. Knowing this the authorities should be able to determine any potential threat is low (vs a fast moving aircraft with no transponder on such as what happened on 9/11).
As it is moving slow, there was time to scamble jets. Once the jets ID & intercept the aircraft, it could be relayed it is indeed low risk. Also note that on average, three aircraft per day violate the DC ADIZ by mistake. In this case, this is just what happened, but this was a more serious violation by entering the FRZ (Flight Restricted Zone).
Aside from it being a pilot lost, not in communication with appropriate ATC nor sqwaking the discrete transponder code, which was the case, the few potential worst case scenario's: (1) suicidal pilot wanting to fly into building: result, minimal damage or (2) aircraft has explosives on-board with intention to fly into building: potential significant damage, loss of lives.
The second scenario cannot be ruled out, but from a risk management standpoint based on the fact there are three DC ADIZ violations a day on average, the most likely scenario is a lost pilot.
In this thread, it's been mentioned it could have been a small plane wanting to drop a "chemical" or "bio" weapon. If this was the case, the absolute worst thing to do would be to have people running into the streets.
Secondly, firing at an aircraft to down it, especially a Cessna 152 which is of low risk could potentially result in more damage in the end depending on where the debris lands.
In conclusion, what happened on the ground was a gross over-reaction, IMHO, and made us look like fools worldwide. The North Koreans were probably laughing at this. In the case of the Kentucky Govonor's plane, setting aside the miscommunications, this would have been a much higher threat (faster moving, no transponder).
The way things were handled in the air was 100% appropriate. While I am not an expert, the above is my view based on what I know about what happened. I'm sure those with ATC/DHS/FAA/NORAD overseeing the DC ADIZ know more about what specifically happened. It sounds like all the agencies were in contact and all in communications yesterday and did a good job from the air side of things -- but on the ground side, I believe there was a gross overreaction.
In closing, while the CFI who is technically the PIC and the student pilot were not charged of any crime, I sincerely hope the FAA speaks with the student about the seriousness of what happened and the CFI gets reamed by the FAA - pull his license & fine him.
With Regards,
SDF_Traveler
#67
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Posts: 8,389
I can see it now:
Passenger: "Hey, isn't that the Washington Monument down there?"
Pilot: "Yep. Looks real small from up here, doesn't it?"
Passenger: "Wow! Kinda looks like a model from up here. That's neat. Look at all those people down there. They look like ants."
Pilot: "If you look over to your left, you can see the Potomac River, the Pentagon, Jefferson Memorial..."
Passenger: "Yeah! What a view...."
WHOOSH!
Passenger: "What the hell was that?"
Pilot: "I don't know! But that jerk nearly collided with us!"
Passenger: "Hey! Isn't that an F-16?"
Pilot: "Why, yes it is."
Passenger: "Cool! You can see all its rockets and stuff. Hey! What's that pilot doing?"
Pilot: "I dunno. Looks like he's trying to contact someone on the radio."
Passenger: "Hey! Do you think we can talk with him on our radio?"
Pilot: "Maybe. You'll have to turn it on. I never turn it on. Too many people blabbing on it. Disturbs my enjoyment of the thrill of flying. Just turn that knob over there."
Radio: "....last warning! You will be shot down!"
Passenger: "Who do you think he's calling?"
Pilot: "I don't know. Could be some sort of wargame or practice drill."
Passenger: "Hey! Isn't that another F-16 over there?"
Radio: "Roger, Eagle One.......engaging.....got good tone.......fox two, I say again.....fox two!"
Passenger: "Hey, isn't that the Washington Monument down there?"
Pilot: "Yep. Looks real small from up here, doesn't it?"
Passenger: "Wow! Kinda looks like a model from up here. That's neat. Look at all those people down there. They look like ants."
Pilot: "If you look over to your left, you can see the Potomac River, the Pentagon, Jefferson Memorial..."
Passenger: "Yeah! What a view...."
WHOOSH!
Passenger: "What the hell was that?"
Pilot: "I don't know! But that jerk nearly collided with us!"
Passenger: "Hey! Isn't that an F-16?"
Pilot: "Why, yes it is."
Passenger: "Cool! You can see all its rockets and stuff. Hey! What's that pilot doing?"
Pilot: "I dunno. Looks like he's trying to contact someone on the radio."
Passenger: "Hey! Do you think we can talk with him on our radio?"
Pilot: "Maybe. You'll have to turn it on. I never turn it on. Too many people blabbing on it. Disturbs my enjoyment of the thrill of flying. Just turn that knob over there."
Radio: "....last warning! You will be shot down!"
Passenger: "Who do you think he's calling?"
Pilot: "I don't know. Could be some sort of wargame or practice drill."
Passenger: "Hey! Isn't that another F-16 over there?"
Radio: "Roger, Eagle One.......engaging.....got good tone.......fox two, I say again.....fox two!"
#68
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Just thought I'd offer up this simple thought...
It seems to me that there is no good way to decide when to evacuate and when not to, and precisely what level of response is deserved given X threat. How do you evaluate, on the spur of the moment when seconds may count, what course of action is appropriate? By the time you gather details and disseminate the information (i.e. it's a Cessna, not something bigger...etc. etc. etc.) you may have delayed too long. Half-measures and "information gathering" are not appropriate.
For example: if you woke up at 3am smelling smoke and saw flames when you opened your bedroom door, would you spend 10 minutes trying to determine what caused the fire, what you could save and whether it was really necessary to get out of your house...or would you haul a** and call the fire department from the neighbor's house? Thanks, that's what I thought.
The comparisons to Britain during WW2 are, IMO, hilarious and completely irrelevant. The weaponry involved in WW2 was pathetically underpowered compared to what might be utilized today. V2s didn't even carry high explosives...they were "low" explosive weapons. In addition, London (and the other cities of England) were under blackout and made use of bomb shelters on a daily basis...so it's not as though the English were just out strolling around, ignoring the attacks.
It seems to me that there is no good way to decide when to evacuate and when not to, and precisely what level of response is deserved given X threat. How do you evaluate, on the spur of the moment when seconds may count, what course of action is appropriate? By the time you gather details and disseminate the information (i.e. it's a Cessna, not something bigger...etc. etc. etc.) you may have delayed too long. Half-measures and "information gathering" are not appropriate.
For example: if you woke up at 3am smelling smoke and saw flames when you opened your bedroom door, would you spend 10 minutes trying to determine what caused the fire, what you could save and whether it was really necessary to get out of your house...or would you haul a** and call the fire department from the neighbor's house? Thanks, that's what I thought.
The comparisons to Britain during WW2 are, IMO, hilarious and completely irrelevant. The weaponry involved in WW2 was pathetically underpowered compared to what might be utilized today. V2s didn't even carry high explosives...they were "low" explosive weapons. In addition, London (and the other cities of England) were under blackout and made use of bomb shelters on a daily basis...so it's not as though the English were just out strolling around, ignoring the attacks.
Last edited by H2O_Goalie; May 12, 2005 at 10:51 am
#69
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You make a valid point but grossly overstate it. The British were very proud of the fact that they didn't let nearly continuous bombing by the Germans paralyze them or their government. And the V-2 may not have been a significant threat, but the many bombs dropped by ordinary airplanes certainly were. Yet somehow life went on. Winston Churchill must be spinning in his grave watching us behave like frightened children.
And, by the way, yesterday's Cessna did have its transponder on, but it was transmitting a generic identification code used by general-aviation aircraft. ATC, of course, already knew that it was GA from the radar signature and speed. Sane and sober people would "know" at some level that this was almost certainly a lost pilot and not a terrorist attack. The reaction was absurd and embarrassing to me as an American.
Bruce
And, by the way, yesterday's Cessna did have its transponder on, but it was transmitting a generic identification code used by general-aviation aircraft. ATC, of course, already knew that it was GA from the radar signature and speed. Sane and sober people would "know" at some level that this was almost certainly a lost pilot and not a terrorist attack. The reaction was absurd and embarrassing to me as an American.
Bruce
#70
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Originally Posted by Bart
I can see it now:
Passenger: "Hey, isn't that the Washington Monument down there?"
Pilot: "Yep. Looks real small from up here, doesn't it?"
Passenger: "Wow! Kinda looks like a model from up here. That's neat. Look at all those people down there. They look like ants."
Pilot: "If you look over to your left, you can see the Potomac River, the Pentagon, Jefferson Memorial..."
Passenger: "Yeah! What a view...."
WHOOSH!
Passenger: "What the hell was that?"
Pilot: "I don't know! But that jerk nearly collided with us!"
Passenger: "Hey! Isn't that an F-16?"
Pilot: "Why, yes it is."
Passenger: "Cool! You can see all its rockets and stuff. Hey! What's that pilot doing?"
Pilot: "I dunno. Looks like he's trying to contact someone on the radio."
Passenger: "Hey! Do you think we can talk with him on our radio?"
Pilot: "Maybe. You'll have to turn it on. I never turn it on. Too many people blabbing on it. Disturbs my enjoyment of the thrill of flying. Just turn that knob over there."
Radio: "....last warning! You will be shot down!"
Passenger: "Who do you think he's calling?"
Pilot: "I don't know. Could be some sort of wargame or practice drill."
Passenger: "Hey! Isn't that another F-16 over there?"
Radio: "Roger, Eagle One.......engaging.....got good tone.......fox two, I say again.....fox two!"
Passenger: "Hey, isn't that the Washington Monument down there?"
Pilot: "Yep. Looks real small from up here, doesn't it?"
Passenger: "Wow! Kinda looks like a model from up here. That's neat. Look at all those people down there. They look like ants."
Pilot: "If you look over to your left, you can see the Potomac River, the Pentagon, Jefferson Memorial..."
Passenger: "Yeah! What a view...."
WHOOSH!
Passenger: "What the hell was that?"
Pilot: "I don't know! But that jerk nearly collided with us!"
Passenger: "Hey! Isn't that an F-16?"
Pilot: "Why, yes it is."
Passenger: "Cool! You can see all its rockets and stuff. Hey! What's that pilot doing?"
Pilot: "I dunno. Looks like he's trying to contact someone on the radio."
Passenger: "Hey! Do you think we can talk with him on our radio?"
Pilot: "Maybe. You'll have to turn it on. I never turn it on. Too many people blabbing on it. Disturbs my enjoyment of the thrill of flying. Just turn that knob over there."
Radio: "....last warning! You will be shot down!"
Passenger: "Who do you think he's calling?"
Pilot: "I don't know. Could be some sort of wargame or practice drill."
Passenger: "Hey! Isn't that another F-16 over there?"
Radio: "Roger, Eagle One.......engaging.....got good tone.......fox two, I say again.....fox two!"
#71
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Originally Posted by SDF_Traveler
In this thread, it's been mentioned it could have been a small plane wanting to drop a "chemical" or "bio" weapon. If this was the case, the absolute worst thing to do would be to have people running into the streets.
Secondly, firing at an aircraft to down it, especially a Cessna 152 which is of low risk could potentially result in more damage in the end depending on where the debris lands.
Secondly, firing at an aircraft to down it, especially a Cessna 152 which is of low risk could potentially result in more damage in the end depending on where the debris lands.
#72
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Originally Posted by tazi
Duct and cover!!!!
The Candyland color-coded terror alert system was RED for 8 minutes!
The Candyland color-coded terror alert system was RED for 8 minutes!

You mean Terror Alert Level Elmo?
http://www.geekandproud.net/terror/
#74
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Originally Posted by H2O_Goalie
For example: if you woke up at 3am smelling smoke and saw flames when you opened your bedroom door, would you spend 10 minutes trying to determine what caused the fire, what you could save and whether it was really necessary to get out of your house...or would you haul a** and call the fire department from the neighbor's house? Thanks, that's what I thought.
Similarly, if you're afraid of a plane carrying a chemical or biological weapon, you're better off staying inside. If the plane might be shot down, you're better off staying inside. If it's a minor threat, you're better off staying inside.
#75
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 82
Well...
Originally Posted by HeHateY
Explain to me again why GA aircraft want access to DCA?
Originally Posted by HeHateY
And why is DCA even open if flying within 5 miles od the WH is such a threat?

