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Norwegian to fly between UK, Ireland and U.S. NE Coast cities. from Summer 2017.

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Norwegian to fly between UK, Ireland and U.S. NE Coast cities. from Summer 2017.

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Old May 16, 2018, 4:02 pm
  #376  
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Originally Posted by Ldnn1
Of course, but that’s not much different to the fact that thousands of companies from all over the USA plant their ‘flag of convenience’ in Delaware for incorporation purposes because of the favourable structure there.

Ultimately it boils down to whether the particular practice is compliant or not, and here the court found that it was.
I'm sorry, but int'l transportation "flags of convenience" are NOTHING like US businesses incorporating in Delaware. It's like the difference between somebody giving you 5 bucks for lunch and somebody paying for a catered dinner for 200.
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Old May 17, 2018, 1:26 am
  #377  
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I guess it's just coincidental, then, that each of Delta, United and American Airlines are incorporated in Delaware.

A state with no currently-active commercial airport, let alone having service provided by any of the airlines incorporated there!!
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Old May 17, 2018, 7:02 pm
  #378  
 
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Originally Posted by irishguy28
I guess it's just coincidental, then, that each of Delta, United and American Airlines are incorporated in Delaware.

A state with no currently-active commercial airport, let alone having service provided by any of the airlines incorporated there!!
You will have difficulty finding many US companies that are not incorporated in Delaware.
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Old May 21, 2018, 11:48 am
  #379  
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So the Norwegian end-game seems to be playing out here. BA is willing to pay something for Norwegian's assets, but not as much as Norwegian would like them to pay. Of course, unless there is an "idiot suitor" lurking in the wings, BA is holding all the cards, because Norwegian would probably go out of business in the next year if they don't sell. Honestly, I'm not sure why BA is willing to pay anything here, but obviously they see value in the assets that most of us don't see. For his part, the Ryanair CEO is unhappy because he wants Norwegian to die a natural death and not get rescued (which is obviously the best outcome for Ryanair).

Stay tuned. Obviously this is an unstable and unpredictable situation. Nobody should be buying Norwegian Air tickets here for travel beyond summer. My hunch is that Norwegian sells to BA because this is truly a gift from God for Norwegian shareholders. Instead of getting zero for their shares, they'll get decent money. They would be truly lucky fools (nobody should ever have invested a nickel in their foolish business plan).


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...bor-costs-jump

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/me...055230465.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/78a3148c...rican-get.html
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Old May 21, 2018, 1:22 pm
  #380  
 
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So an unsubstantiated rumour and two reports on a comment made by Michael O'Leary, who has never made a misleading statement in his life.

You never mentioned that "Norwegian dismissed O'Leary's comments as having "no root in reality"".
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Old May 21, 2018, 4:31 pm
  #381  
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Originally Posted by iahphx
So the Norwegian end-game seems to be playing out here. BA is willing to pay something for Norwegian's assets, but not as much as Norwegian would like them to pay. Of course, unless there is an "idiot suitor" lurking in the wings, BA is holding all the cards, because Norwegian would probably go out of business in the next year if they don't sell. Honestly, I'm not sure why BA is willing to pay anything here, but obviously they see value in the assets that most of us don't see. For his part, the Ryanair CEO is unhappy because he wants Norwegian to die a natural death and not get rescued (which is obviously the best outcome for Ryanair).

Stay tuned. Obviously this is an unstable and unpredictable situation. Nobody should be buying Norwegian Air tickets here for travel beyond summer. My hunch is that Norwegian sells to BA because this is truly a gift from God for Norwegian shareholders. Instead of getting zero for their shares, they'll get decent money. They would be truly lucky fools (nobody should ever have invested a nickel in their foolish business plan).


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...bor-costs-jump

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/me...055230465.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/78a3148c...rican-get.html
I don't doubt that there are some shake ups coming in the European airline landscape. I am not sure it is as clear cut as all that. Norwegian is definitely a candidate, but there are others that are also hanging on the edge. If other candidates fold first Norwegian may get more breathing room

Mainly thinking Scandinavian Airlines here, while the numbers have improved, they are not the model of airline financials either.
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Old May 21, 2018, 7:00 pm
  #382  
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Originally Posted by ft101
You never mentioned that "Norwegian dismissed O'Leary's comments as having "no root in reality"".
Um, have you seen Norwegian's financials? Have you checked the price of oil lately? Feel free to believe whatever you want, but hoping and wishing isn't going to save this failing airline.
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Old May 21, 2018, 8:25 pm
  #383  
 
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Originally Posted by CPH-Flyer
I don't doubt that there are some shake ups coming in the European airline landscape. I am not sure it is as clear cut as all that. Norwegian is definitely a candidate, but there are others that are also hanging on the edge. If other candidates fold first Norwegian may get more breathing room

Mainly thinking Scandinavian Airlines here, while the numbers have improved, they are not the model of airline financials either.
SAS posted a very healthy +5.1% operating margin in 2017. They’re doing just fine. Compare and contrast with Norwegian’s -6% operating margin, and an even worse Q1-18 than last year.

I don't think SAS is anywhere near folding. I can think of one or two that could be in big financial doo doo with a fuel hike, but none in a worse shape than Norwegian.
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Old May 22, 2018, 3:09 pm
  #384  
 
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Originally Posted by iahphx
Um, have you seen Norwegian's financials? Have you checked the price of oil lately? Feel free to believe whatever you want, but hoping and wishing isn't going to save this failing airline.
Yes, and I don't 100% disagree with you, but referring to articles and only mentioning the bits that suit you makes your posts lose credibility.
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Old May 22, 2018, 5:32 pm
  #385  
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Originally Posted by ft101
Yes, and I don't 100% disagree with you, but referring to articles and only mentioning the bits that suit you makes your posts lose credibility.
& BAs parent wants to buy into Norwegian, but offers not high enough
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Old May 22, 2018, 8:59 pm
  #386  
 
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Originally Posted by southpac
& BAs parent wants to buy into Norwegian, but offers not high enough
Remember that Bjorn Kjos owns 27% of the shares and he doesn’t want to sell up; it's his baby after all. And IAG owns 4.6%. So any bid - hostile or not - would have to be accepted by almost 67% of the remaining shareholders, some of whom are Bjorn’s buddies.

There’s no point in artificially inflating the offer. The offer reflects the state of Norwegian (terrible) and debt that IAG would assume (huge for Norwegian, manageable for IAG). Now It’s take it or leave it, and it remains on the table until Norwegian runs out of money and/or a white knight bid shows up.

Aside from IAG I don’t see any airline company robust enough financially and with a fit for the long haul business. RyanAir, Wizz Air and EasyJet are strong enough but likeky don’t need/want the long haul business, and Lufthansa would be a potential fit but is busy with bidding for Alitalia and absorbing the carcus of Air Berlin.
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Old May 22, 2018, 9:26 pm
  #387  
 
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Originally Posted by iahphx
Nobody should be buying Norwegian Air tickets here for travel beyond summer.
While I'm very negative on Norwegian and expect them to either sell to IAG or another suitor (a move I consider as brain dead as when Alaska and Jet Blue got in a bidding war over Virgin America) or they will shut their doors, if I were to book Norwegian, I'd just make sure to take two precautions:
1) use a credit card, and
2) buy trip cancellation insurance

I don't share your confidence that they can make it through this summer … April's performance numbers were horrendous. Year over year, load factor was -3.6%, yield was -16%, and RASK (metric version of RASM) was -20%. If May's numbers look this bad, Norwegian's lifespan will shrink considerably.
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Old May 22, 2018, 11:27 pm
  #388  
 
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Originally Posted by usbusinesstraveller


Remember that Bjorn Kjos owns 27% of the shares and he doesn’t want to sell up;

I don't know how you can say that so definitively. The statements weren't that combative after the bid was announced.
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Old May 23, 2018, 7:14 am
  #389  
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Originally Posted by itsallgood
I don't share your confidence that they can make it through this summer … April's performance numbers were horrendous. Year over year, load factor was -3.6%, yield was -16%, and RASK (metric version of RASM) was -20%. If May's numbers look this bad, Norwegian's lifespan will shrink considerably.
I'm just assuming a transatlantic leisure-focused airline won't go out of business in summer: perhaps the only time of the year where they might get above breakeven (although in Norwegian's case, probably not).

I did see a couple of recent stories about Norwegian Air in the Norwegian media that I translated and tried to read. Google' Norwegian translate program seems less than perfect, but the gist of what I read indicated that an IAG purchase of Norwegian was not imminent. Walsh apparently believes that time is on his side, and that seems pretty obvious to me. This would also tend to suggest that Norwegian has at least a few more month of life left in it.
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Old May 23, 2018, 9:31 pm
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Originally Posted by itsallgood
… April's performance numbers were horrendous. Year over year, load factor was -3.6%, yield was -16%, and RASK (metric version of RASM) was -20%. If May's numbers look this bad, Norwegian's lifespan will shrink considerably.
Holy cow! I thought you’d missed a decimal point in that RASK number, but no you’re right.

https://www.norwegian.com/globalasse...april-2018.pdf

Assuming CASK as Norwegian has projected for 2018 at NOK 0.415, that pans out to an operating loss for April of NOK 1B, and -43% operating margin. That’s more than they lost in the whole of Q2-17 (NOK 863M).

Compare that to (the terrible) April 2017. Using the reported Q2 CASK of NOK 0.43 the operating loss was NOK 375M and -19% operating margin.

On those numbers I share your pessimism about whether they’ll last the summer, though I reckon they’ll scrape through with some more asset sales, and then maybe post a small profit in Q3. But the fall/winter (Q4), no chance.

Last edited by usbusinesstraveller; May 24, 2018 at 12:26 am
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