Or a Korean startup carrier for the China - Korea routes?

I think the moment someone in Vancouver suggests this in a board meeting you will see that person do bungee jumping with concrete on their feet off the Capilano Bridge a few minutes later.

No, the Lynn Canyon suspension bridge, because it's free. No point in wasting Loonies on loonies.

Eh?

How can they be Central America's leading airline with just FOUR destinations in the region and no hub outside North America?

OW used to have slightly better coverage in Africa... BA's franchise Regional Air had a regional hub at NBO to JNB/KRT/ASM/JIB for some time but this went away several years ago.

I will always wonder why no alliance is considering MH ? They have a very good product on par with the best carriers around, but still. Plus, there is a huge market to take at SQ.

I switch form ST to OW.

Also, we have to bear in mind that EK, QR or EY are not willing to step in an alliance. I guess they will undergo to much pressure to soar their price?

Skyteam. But don't expect them to join soon, both because Skyteam procedures aren't so fast (for example, TAROM have been about to join the alliance since approximately the beginning of time), and because MH is a government-owned entity in a rather slow-moving, bureaucratic place.

There are a few potential options for oneworld in my opinion....and they are as follows for the following reasons

Asia (including China)
I still firmly believe that AIR CHINA could possibly defect from Star to oneworld, especially given the close links with CX. I mean, if MU and FM merger does go ahead...this could mean these two airlines could be part of Star, allowing CA to join oneworld.

CX does have a close relationship with MH.....and AF seems to be against MH joining oneworld from what I have heard. We could possibly see MH join oneworld??

Middle East/India
For India, I am starting to believe you are more likely to see IT join oneworld as opposed to 9W as they joined the oneworld explorer airfare. But I think one or the other will join oneworld eventually. After all, 9W has developed a close relationship with airlines such as QF

GF could be a potential inclusion. First, they are a member of the global explorer airfare. Second, former RJ CEO Samer Majali is now the head of GF.....so it might be easy for GF to join oneworld.

Alternatively, EY may be a strong possibility given the new established relationships with both QF and AA

Africa....
I don't mean to sounds ignorant, but from what I have seen, African Airlines are either scary....or aligned to Star and Skyteam. What is left for oneworld in Africa? Air Zimbabwe?? Libyan Airlines?? TunisAir and Royal Air Maroc are more likely to join Skyteam given the French link??

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Now, in a Utopian world where I had ultimate power, I would like to see SQ, SR, EK and 9W join oneworld....I shall keep dreaming.

yes , QF does have a frequent flyer/codeshare arrangement with 9W , so do 3 other OW airlines , 8 *A airlines , 3 Skyteam airlines and a host of non-aligned airlines - I think IT is a much stronger candidate for OW than 9W is , especially since they have , as you mentioned , joined the global explorer fare .


bearing in mind that OW keep talking about avoiding overlap and limiting the number of members to around a dozen worldwide why would they bring in a second airline in the Middle East ? I am aware that geographically there is some distance between AMM and BAH , but I still dont see it happening without a major shift in OW recruitment strategy. If you dont mind my asking what specifically do you see GF offering OW ? In recent years they seem to have been almost the definition of a boom and bust cycle ... expand , contract , expand , contract , expand .... far more so than any other carrier I can think of .


I realise that you are talking hypothetically but here is my 25MUR worth.

SQ - in spite of constant rumours ( which, in my experience , for some reason mainly seem to come from Skyteam supporters ) I do not see SQ quitting *A . The main 'evidence' given for their supposed desire to change is their lack of teamwork and halfhearted commitment to *A - personally I think they would be the same whichever alliance they were in, they have always been a bit of a Prima Donna . Furthermore , around the time of the MX exit from *A there were frequent rumours about a 2 year "standdown" clause for *A members which , IIRC , prevents them from joining another alliance within 2 years of departure from *A . I have no idea whether this clause actually exists , or is just another FT/Anet urban legend , but it would not surprise me if there is such a clause , if it does exist I think that in the current economic circumstances SQ would need a pretty compelling case to swap alliances if such a decision caused a 2 year period in alliance ' limbo' .

if by SR you mean LX , blame BA , LX were announced as a future OW airline several years ago and BA screwed it up and drove them into the arms of LH and *A . They would have been a great addition to OW as all of their existing European hubs LHR MAD BUD HEL are on the edge of the continent with a sodding great gap in the middle which LX and their ZRH hub would have satisfied nicely ... still , OWs loss definitely turned out to be *A's gain .

EK have a fantastic network , but I am not sure what they would offer an alliance - they dont actually generate much traffic of their own from what I can tell , they just cannibalise it from other airlines . There is also the problem of their extreme inconsistency in both hard and soft product - when they are good they are outstanding, but when they are bad they are frankly bloody awful - feedback I have had lately has been more towards the bloody awful end of the spectrum than the outstanding end . Lastly , there is that fact that even more so than SQ they seem to feel that they should be calling the tune in any arrangements they make , so I dont see them as a 'team player'

My understanding is that MH elected not to join an alliance as their management team felt it not in their best interest.

VN joining ST however will help till fill the SE Asia void.

Have they said that officially (I don't recall seeing it), or is it all part of the rumour mill?


There really isn't that much of a void- CAN is quite convenient for connections around SE Asia. You wanna talk ST voids; look at South America!

Official.

Sorry but CAN is a long way from SE Asia. Even HKG is a bit of a stretch and some could argue OW could do with another partner in the region although this is likely to only happen if QF takeover another carrier (MH is definite candidate for this) or Jetstar (including Jetstar Asia) finally enters as some sort of OW associate member.

Seriously, do you have any idea of the distance between the two??

Had there been a city between them instead of the SAR border, they 'd probably be considered co-terminals!

Having been to both I know how close they are to each other although co-terminals is a bit of a stretch. That would be like saying NCE and LHR could be co-terminals. My point is that HKG is not SE Asia.

Just a wee bit exaggerated - from gcm HKG-CAN is 84 miles, LHR-NCE is 647 miles. London & Birmingham is a better comparison (87 miles).