correctioncx

Actually what exactly r the reasons CA can't join oneworld?

FlyerTalker688786

The CAAC boss Li Jiaxiang was the CEO in Air China when he took Air China in to Staralliance. Li Jiaxiang sees Air China being a Super Carrier and only staralliance with Lufthansa and United could be the match. His vision sees Air China, together with Lufthansa and United could hold the starlliance together with the tripolars.

Being a shareholder, CX voted twice NO on CA's boarder meetings in Staralliance membership. I remember that time ANA has a very very minor shares in CA as well. Not that important. Any way Li Jiaxiang and his party officials who have the aganda to aligh Air China to Lufthansa started to critisize "certain unwise and unhelpful shareholders (aka CX)" in official newspapers...and the end result, you know already.

After CA has been in staralliance, Li Jiaxiang went on to become the head of China's aviation governing body: CAAC. And under his watch, Air China successfully ousted the private owner of Shenzhen Airlines (jail...) and used some political forces to merge the independant airlines into Air China group. Now Shenzhen is a member of staralliance as well. This actually happened so quick and nobody forsees it. It happens with the rumour that Cathay pacific is evaluating buy into Shenzhen Airlines...So you get the picture.

With the dictatorship of Li Jiaxiang and his gang which still controls Air China (SOEs...reforms...all those bullshXt), it will be highly unlikely CA would switch. The rumoured retirement of Li Jiaxiang is not happening neither this year.

So if you ask me on what condition Air China would make a switch? Following conditions are needed to be met:
1>, Li Jiaxiang is to retire from CAAC
2>, All current Air China management to be replaced by oneworld friendly people
3>, Air China become extremely unhappy with Lufthansa or United or
4>, Major fallout in Sino-German relations

A breakup of star alliance certainly would work out as well but it is unlikely CA would go to oneworld instead.

correctioncx

But then why is CA asking help from cX on mgmt and training? And the cross crew training programme?

FlyerTalker688786

It is not CA asking for help. It is a mutual cooperation.

Yes there are inputs of CA, CX and CAAC in making the cross crew training programme but it stayed at the operational level. CA wanted to use CX's experience to up their training. Also CA and CX had a joint venture in cargo. But it does not mean a thing at all. It is just regular company business activities.

themapelligroup

Which is the Chinese based carrier who at the moment has more chances to join OW in your opinion?

derek2010

i think:
QF should persuade and sponsor MU to leave Skyteam and join OW.
CX should persuade and sponsor CA to leave *A and join OW.

CXBA

very unlikely the former will apply any pressure since they will be absorbed by their new link with EK. As for the latter probably you haven't read well the posts just above.
Having said that, i think MU is an easy target for switch, if only CX and CA are able to use well the shares they still have in the company.
I would not count both * and ST to keep their stranglehold on mainland market for long. There is a definite shift happening from monolithic alliances like the above mentioned ones to more flexible arrangements, and in this case OW is gonna be advantaged. I am also expecting both CA and CZ to start building their own global networks following the footsteps of the ME carriers. In CA case it is highly unlikely LH will tolerate another direct intra-alliance competitor after TK.

FlyerTalker688786

MU certainly has the weakest link so far in terms of political connection and alliance connection. As soon as its CEO leaves there could be a shift very quickly. But I said that, it may not happen. The rumour is that he might become the next CAAC head after the Li Jiaxiang retirement. Personally I think this rumour is not going to turn to reality. His decision to acquire A380 for China Southern when he was CZ CEO is now hurting CZ so badly, loosing millions per month.

I see MU as the most possible alliance shifter as soon as Liu leaves MU post and could not become CAAC head.

CA remains a possibility but a myth.

CZ is in the process of transformation in terms of future strategy. Its skyteam membership is strong but not without cracks on the A380 issue.

Hainan remains as an airline that is used by its parent company to make money from other sources. It sets up so many smaller airlines that it needs to consolidate its operation in order to make its network match what oneworld wants. Hainan's membership deadlock is not because of CX. It is actually what Hainan is doing in aviation. It is very disgraceful. If it is not the support from Hainan sovereign fund, Hainan would have been bankrupt many times (thus they abandoned the plan to be called Grand China Airlines due to Hainan fund injection). As an airline, its business is actually real estate. That is very unusual.

themapelligroup

In my opinion there aren't lots of chances to see a Chinese carrier in OW right now. Too many factors influence the joining process of the big four.

Kachjc

it seems like the only way (slow and lazy to attract member Oneworld) will enter China is if by some miracle- cathay is allowed to fly domestic

Hopefully Oneworld forgets about Kingfisher and acts quickly in India and Africa

Also Hopefully Cathay will stop stagnating when it is sitting in the middle of the fastest growing region in Aviation

If it continues to actively try and reduce its market share and thus OW presence/connectivity to Asia- OW should kick it out.

and allow other airlines that want to grow quickly and expand to join.

rurouni212

Even if Cathay did notably contract, they are still a juggernaut in the region and kicking them out would probably be a really bad idea. OW definitely needs to drop Kingfisher and start figuring something else out for India.

J_Fleish

In regards to India both Jet Airways and Air India are a mess financially. I think the problem after the whole Kingfisher incident (which oneworld dropped when the ceased all operations) is that oneworld doesn't want to take the risk. I also feel for an Indian member it depends on how a few factors pan out.

those are the following

1. Jet Airways and Etihad. If Jet Airways get the investment from Etihad that pretty much exclude them from joining oneworld. I know Air Berlin has a small portion owned by Etihad but I believe if Etihad's investment was before Air Berlin started the joining process they wouldve gone to Skyteam.

2. Jet Airways seeking to join star alliance. Dont forget India has only 2 full service international service which is Jet Airways and Air India so one alliance may not end up with an Indian partner.

3. The final factor is the new skyteam LCC membership structure. this structure was announced but so far not much details or any members were announced. If Skyteam just decides to go with an LCC like spicejet or go air that will leave the other 2 for either star alliance and oneworld.

I think also with the addition of future members Qatar and SriLanka the India subcontinent will be pretty covered by oneworld with a connection in Doha or Columbo to get to India. I know India is an important country to target since its a BRIC country with a rising middle class i am just not convinced that the time is right for an Indian airline to join an alliance till they are more finically sound.

The real hole from the BRIC countries oneworld needs right now is China. In order to get the ground in China they may need to pull a page from the sky team book and create these low cost alliance affiliate which i know people do not like flying low cost carriers but in China the options are slim considering Hanian Airlines is the only major international carrier left in China unaligned and its slim for them to join considering their ownership in Cathay Pacific's biggest competitor Hong Kong Airlines and Hong Kong Express. The domestic China market is more important in my opinion then the international market as long as member airlines have a mainline feed in china they can provide international service. Don't get me wrong a full international airline from china will be nice but i can not see them getting more then a regional airline similar to what star alliance will have in Brazil with Avianca Brazil

Kachjc

yeah- HK airlines ain't cathay's biggest competition the other major airlines around it are

also Jet and Air India are horrible airlines with a shrinking network.

Oneworld should go LCC and go Indigo and invite Jetstar Singapore/vietnam/Japan/Aus/NZ in like LAN invited its affiliates

going for Kingfisher was a smart move for Oneworld in the sense as Oneworld focuses and corporate travelers and Kingfisher did so too

ihavebeenseen

What is this obsession with having a China and India based carrier in OW. QR, BA, MH and UL more than fill the holes in India. CX and JL more than I'll the holes in China. The only real weak point in the network is EU to China and Africa.

If some how CX brought HU in as to not rock the boat with some one else bringing HU in I say do it. As for India there is no carrier right now deserving to be in OW. Lastly with Africa there is not a lot to do here.

J_Fleish

From a strategical business standpoint Brazil, Russia, China and India (which is also know as the BRIC) is the market with major growth right and and a rising middle class that is becoming more and more important for businesses to target those countries as they have more income to spend. From an alliance standpoint Oneworld is successful in 2 of the 4 BRIC countries with S7 and Tam where Star Alliance has Avianca Brazil (future once Tam Leaves Star Alliance) and Air China and Shenzhen Airlines. Skyteam has China Eastern, China Southern, Shanghai Airlines and Aeroflot. As this middle class will continue to rise the alliance that can get all 4 countries pieces in order will be in the best shape.

And when i said Cathay Pacific biggest competitor is Hong Kong Airlines I meant home market competitor.