FlytheTail

I think the primary intent of the 787 purchase was to add new routes, not to replace existing ones.

The hard product is what matters to me most -- seats, overhead bin space, IFE, etc. If they are substantially similar, I guess it doesn't matter to me which type of equipment I fly on, as long as it isn't a rickety 767.

motytrah

The whole idea of the 787 is range, cost and comfort. NW's intention was to use them on premium long haul routes. The thought being that whatever premium a business would pay in fare would be made up with better execution of travel (better rested, less time in air, no layovers, etc.) and the possibility of reducing a hotel night.

I honestly don't know what to make of it. NW saw the 787 as a must have to remain competitive with the Asian carriers (which have all lined up behind the 787). I don't know what DL's long term thinking is on this.

FWAAA

Perhaps that was NW's reason for ordering the 787 but for most airlines, the 787 is a direct replacement for 767s and 330s. AA's order for 42 787-9s plus options for 58 more are destined to replace AA's aging 762s and 763s.

NW ordered the smaller 787-8 instead of the 787-9; the -8 is sized between the 767-200 and the 767-300. The -9 is slightly larger than a 763 but smaller than a 772. Several years ago, there were rumours that Boeing would build a -10 model that would feature the capacity of the 772 (including, for a short while, specs of the -10 on the Boeing website).

SchmutzigMSP

I'm not sure what to make of these rumors. One of the reasons DL wanted to merge with NW was because of NW's market share and expertise in TPAC flying. I recall many quotes by top execs from both organizations touting the expected benefits of the 787. Perhaps this is all political posturing trying to put more pressure on Boeing for deliveries/discounts/etc.? Who can say for sure...

I will say that the 787 vs. 772LR argument is a bad path to go down. They're simply different types of aircraft designed for different purposes. They are not best suited for a dual-use format. Each has its niche.

CO FF

Another WAG: since NW was to have been the launch customer for North America, this takes pressure off the timetable. Boeing gets to sell more 772s, which they know how to build and how long it takes to deliver, while buying some time for all its other customer commitments.

Then, DL comes in and orders 787s for delivery in about 5 years (same timetable as AA) -- once Boeing knows how to get them done. At that point, the combined DL/AA orders are enough to justify a second production line, allowing Boeing to meet the combined demand.

BearX220

One of the drawbacks of the 787, however, is that it doesn't yet exist, while the 772LR is rolling off the line today. What I make of this is that DL/NW needs to do some medium-range strategic route planning today, and they need to build their strategy around airplanes they know they can have at fixed points in the future. If the 787 project were still on time I bet this shift wouldn't be taking place.

pbarnette

The article also hinted at it being a size issue. The 787-8 brings efficiency and range, sure, but it is basically the same size as the 763. It doesn't bring much new to the table. Sure, it gives some more range for the really long and thin routes, but I can't imagine that DL and NW decided to hook up if they didn't want to leverage being the world's largest carrier. For now, that means getting the high capacity + range of the 772LR.

MastaHanky

Agreed. I can however see DL converting some 787-800 deliveries to 787-900 deliveries and maybe taking them a year or two later than when the 787-800s were scheduled.

motytrah

Some more research shows that DL has had it's eye on the 787 for a while. Though they have no orders for them, they signed up for gold support for the 787 platform in 2006, and Boeing commented back in 2007 that Delta was looking at converting their entire 767 fleet to 787. So if the end game is to put in a massive order 787 order later on, maybe it's okay to put Boeing through the ringer for some 77L discounts.

jiburi

I agree there. With boeing no longer making 757s, 787 is still probably the most likely replacement for both the 757 and 767s. 787 simply was the right size and range for NW (eg. JFK-NRT), but for the combined NW/DL, 777 is a better choice. (eg. DL has JFK hub to better feed flights)

Jiburi

florin

I think 752s can be replaced by 739s or 321s. I flew on a 321 this summer (OS) and it felt a lot like a 757 (but was quieter and had that *new* look & feel). 787s can replace 767s and 753s. (I may be wrong here)

hooverer

Reading between the lines of what was said and what was not said in the reports is that DL wants to keep some of initial 787s ordered, while converting some of those to 777LR however no mention of if on a 1 for 1 or other ratio.

Given the delays for the 787s and assuming further delays, it makes sense for DL to get some more 777s for deploying on routes where the 787 was targted at least intially until the 787s is delivered and everything worked out.

Even if DL gives up some of the early spots from the initial 18 ordered by NW, there are still all of those options that can be exercised for the large future 787 fleet that the combined DL will have down the road.

DL gets the A/C that they can use now and in the future by getting some more 777s while giving more breathing room for the 787.

Now for a different quesiton is will DL keep RR on the 787s they will be getting (outside of the intial delivers that will be part of flight testing) or is this also the oppourtunity to switch to GE now that that program has progressed further than when NW made the RR decision?

-H

motytrah

Okay, so you assume DL is going to convert some 787 orders to 77L. Long and the short of that is DL gets metal into the air sooner rather than later. I don't think they are going to mess with the first two planes that are already in assembly. But if they give up a couple orders from the first 10 slots or so they do Boeing a serious favor. One that's likely worth some major $$$$$$.

So then the question becomes is the new planes for new routes or replacing old metal? IF DL actually puts some money into the interior 744s, you'll known that airplane is going to be around for a while. If all they do is slap a new coat of paint on it I think we'll know the DL 744 will be short lived.

Winglets747

I think we need to take a step back and remember DL wants to convert some of NW's 787 orders--not all. Until we know the exact number, it's unnecessary to sound the alarm that the DL/NW product will be compromised.

For starters, DL already has a lowly 777 fleet. People here have rightly been saying that even the recent 777LR order wasn't enough.

We don't know what's going on behind the scenes. Another airline with 777-200LRs on Boeing's book may be looking to defer the order, which makes for an attractive deal for both DL and Boeing. Delta could get 777-200LRs before 787s, thus providing a capacity increase, particularly on the ultra-long-haul routes Delta likes at the moment. Boeing, meanwhile, makes the customer who deferred happy because the cancellation rate probably wouldn't be as huge than if Boeing had to outright cancel the plane, while the decrease in 787s for DL/NW helps the 787 delay/compensation issue. This could very well be a win win situation all around. ^



I think it's fair to say the thinking has changed drastically over the past few months. What direction, exactly, DL plans to go in depends just how many 787s they are looking to convert.

^

^

Except that DL doesn't have a shot at fleet commonality until many years down the road when it looks at the replacement for 737 that would reduce the current MD-80/DC-9 and A319/A320 fleet. A330s and 777s are too new to replace, the 747s clearly aren't going anywhere, and 757s have no direct replacement and are too numerous to replace.

A321s are horrible 757 replacements for the way DL uses 757s. Since an A320 can't always make the westbound segment of a transcon flight, an A321 would do far worse. The only option for a 757 replacement at the moment is the 737-900, but I doubt 757 replacement is anywhere near a priority. DC-9s first, yeah?

tomh009

Both the 737 and A320 replacements are about 10 years away.

However, DL doesn't need to wait that long: Embraer's E-Jets are available today (though with a substantial order backlog), or DL could sign up to be Bombardier's launch customer for the CSeries, available in about five years, with probably a fabulous discount to boot. Either of these would likely be a better fit as a DC-9/MD-88/MD-90 replacement than the next-gen Airbus/Boeing narrowbody aircraft.

Current narrowbody fleet:

• 737-700: 4+6 (DL)
• 737-800: 71+34 (DL)
• A319-100: 57+5 (NW)
• A320-200: 70+2 (NW)
• DC9-30: 22 (NW)
• DC9-40: 110 (NW)
• DC9-50: 34 (NW)
• MD-88: 114 (DL)
• MD-90: 16 (DL)

Including orders, you could say that there are 249 modern aircraft (115 737s and 134 A319s/A320s) and 296 oldtimers (five variations on the DC-9 theme). Replacing the latter group with an efficient modern plane will by far give DL the biggest bang for its fleet consolidation buck. The second wave could include moving the A319 and the smaller 737s to the new aircraft, for a potential purchase of 368 100-150 seat aircraft. Can you say "buying power"?

So ... if you were running DL, would you wait 10 years to do replace that part of the new fleet?