Ahh.. Tampa-Billings commuter. I don't know why, but that cracks me up.

Anway... Two coincident things we've seen posted here:

* Platinums reporting lower u/g rates
* People getting upgraded far in advance (e.g. 10 or 20 days)

I think these are connected events. My suspicion is that when a flight gets oversold by +X seats, they start running pre-emptive EUA passes to open seats in Y, leaving only a couple seats up front in case one of us buys a F ticket.

So, travelers who habitually book last minute fares (but don't pay full F), are basically competing for two or three seats in F, and those may be sold.

I don't seem to have the same trouble getting upgraded when I buy my ticket far in advance. Just speculation, but I feel like I see a pattern here.

This is what seems to be happening to me. Due to the nature of my work, I don't know that I will need to make a trip until about 2-4 days out. Often, at that point, the flight I need is P2F2 or even P1F0. Usually, I get the upgrade, but considering the way it has been going I could reasonably expect to miss upgrades on 10-20% of my flights.

>>>>>>I think it really comes down to two things. ... They are trying to figure out the loads and adjusting them. They have had so many over sold flights in the past 60 days, they are than moving those people into first which is taking up FC seats and not allowing them for battle field upgrades.


If they are moving people 10 or 20 days in advance--then who are they moving? High-revs? 2%ers? FlyerTalk moderators?

If anyone wants to see a detailed example of 2007 flying, check out this thread, post #6.

http://flyertalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=653646

As you can see, I'm sitting at 80% upgrades (24/30, including 2 EUAs I already have for Thursday) on NW non-CRJ domestic segments this year. At this rate, I'll have enough guarantee miles for a PerkSaver domestic by the end of 2007.

I feel your pain. One day MSP-MKE there were 79 plats!

Hear all of you. I missed my first upgrade in the last two years yesterday flying LAS to MEM. This is the first time I ever rode in back from a trip to Vegas (on a Q fare no less so not a cheapie). Oh, well not like I needed anything to drink of an alcohol nature anyhow (smile).

Although in the past we may have enjoyed near-perfect or perfect upgrade rates (I went two years without missing one!), we need to keep in mind that NW's internal goal is a 90% upgrade rate for all their platinums. Since that's an average, some guy's going to be getting 100% upgrades while someone else might be getting 80% (as an example).

It's time to stop using F as a place to dump non-status people after irregular ops.

Crap i am at 95%, i guess i can see my UG's going down in the next few months Trying to get to 2% club, haven't got my invite yet

Right, because we FTers never ask to be re-accommodated in WBC if we're on international Y and take a voluntary bump. Or we never ask to be put in F if we take a domestic VDB. Or tell me that you wouldn't want and ask to be put in F if your flight was delayed all morning and afternoon before finally being canceled and re-booked on another flight.

NW has a right to allocate the seats in first class however they choose. As an elite trying to snag a status upgrade, you paid for coach and your upgrade is not guaranteed.

Well said^

Trying to "snag?" Missing 6 upgrades is more upgrades than I think I missed all last year. There's gotta be a reason for it, and it's cause NW has been holding more and more seats back.

There's a difference. I fly NW more than Aunt Sallie who's "never sat in the big chair."

>>>>>Trying to "snag?" Missing 6 upgrades is more upgrades than I think I missed all last year.

I missed more in the last month than I've missed in the last THREE years (gold at the time!). Something is percolating in perkland, fishy in the 1000 lakes of the state of Minnesota, or possibly rotten in the state of Denmark. Flights on identical days/hours/spring-breaks that I was easily EUA'ed last year as a Gold I now have no chance of getting upgraded on, EUA or battlefield, as a Plat.

I would tend to guess that targeted-corporate-agency-booked incentives or other targeted F-class promotions are filling seats upfront on many flights well in advance of EUA ever running, leaving any and all elites to hope to get lucky on flights that used to be easy pickings. Dick G's anecdote about 73 plats is still valid--I've been on virtual all-elite flights--but only on busy Mondays after I've gotten a bump from the weekend, and never before on the leisure times I tend to fly. I don't really think that it is the same-day bumps or reroutes that are shifting the landscape like this.

^ Hear, Hear. As a lowly Gold the upgrade percentages are even more dismal.

I received more EUA upgrades, more reliably, as a silver elite 3 years ago than in the current year as a Gold.

And as a result, you know better how to handle irregular opps than Aunt Sallie. I think irregular opps -- especially to accommodate those who got stuck in extreme situations -- is a fair use of the First Class inventory. It's simply good customer service.

The Plats who don't get upgraded on every trip still get compensation, the guarantee miles. If Plats would rather absolutely guarantee a seat up front (and I was a Plat for two years), they should redeem miles or buy a ticket up front.

That all said, this has been an odd year compared to earlier ones for elite upgrades, based on anecdotal and empirical evidence.