Ahh.. Tampa-Billings commuter. I don't know why, but that cracks me up.

Anway... Two coincident things we've seen posted here:

* Platinums reporting lower u/g rates
* People getting upgraded far in advance (e.g. 10 or 20 days)

I think these are connected events. My suspicion is that when a flight gets oversold by +X seats, they start running pre-emptive EUA passes to open seats in Y, leaving only a couple seats up front in case one of us buys a F ticket.

So, travelers who habitually book last minute fares (but don't pay full F), are basically competing for two or three seats in F, and those may be sold.

I don't seem to have the same trouble getting upgraded when I buy my ticket far in advance. Just speculation, but I feel like I see a pattern here.