Quick background:

AIRLINES/FFPs
No capacity control awards: are unlimited, but cost double miles because they displace potential revenue seats

Capacity controlled awards: are limited, because if too many are redeemed, they could displace last-minute potential revenue seats

The theme is clear- Airlines have alot of (well-deserved) anxiety about protecting incremental revenue that could be threatened by award redemptions

FFP MEMBERS
No capacity control awards: unless totally desperate, most of us don't want to spend double miles and drain our accounts

Capacity controlled awards: since we don't understand how airlines/FFPs determine their award allocations (totally non-transparent), it is challenging and frustrating to try and redeem capacity controlled awards

The theme is clear- Members have a lot of (well-deserved) anxiety about getting the most value out their awards, without totally throwing off schedule their planned travel dates


For your consideration, a new award redemption category- MAVERICK AWARD.
The following example is based on Business Class inventory, but can be extrapolated to First and Coach.

AIRLINE/FFP
* 7 days prior to departure date, for any given routing that has sold less than 50% of available seat inventory in J, the FFP would release 6 award J seats OR less than 75% of available seat inventory in J, the FFP would release 3 J seats.

MEMBER
* agrees that redeeming a Maverick award is subject to the following terms
- airline has the right to oversell J by 3-6 seats until day of departure.
- if airline succeeds in selling the 3-6 seats (thus preserving their full revenue potential) that were redeemed as Maverick awards, the airline/FFP can offer the member any of the available four options:
^ fly coach on same flight; recalculate member award as a Coach,
not Business Class redemption
^ re-accomodate member on another routing that has Business Class
or Coach award avails on day of departure
^ re-accomodate member on same routing in either Business or Coach
(whichever has availability) the following day
^ refund the member award without penalty


This is a semi-win/semi-win deal.

AIRLINE
* still GUARANTEED that on any given flight, that it can still capture last-minute/high revenue business without losing it to overaggressive award redemptions
* no risk of member dissatisfaction because member knows the risk/benefit ratio in advance and therefore has MANAGEABLE EXPECTATIONS
* Airline/FFP can now open up MORE premium inventory to benefit members (maybe restrict to top-tier members??) on routes that are unlikely to sellout (only 50-75% J seats sold 7 days out)
* On the few times that a Maverick award-qualified flight actually does sell out on day of departure, it has a manageable re-accomodation quantity (max 3-6 pax) and plenty of re-accomodation options, all of which the pax is ALREADY aware of and agreeable to). So, shouldn't be a major strain on airport staff resources.

MEMBER
* new premium award opportunities with a decent amount of lead time
* totally transparent understanding about when and under what conditions Maverick Award inventory would be released
* totally transparent understanding about reaccomodation options if flight does get oversold in the interim
* only commits to Maverick awards with full understanding of risk/benefits


So, the airline/FFP has NO financial risk, just some (reasonable) potential day of departure reaccomodation logistics. The member has NEW access to premium inventory with decent lead-time without burning a double mile award, with a pretty good percentage of maintaining their original routing/COS award, but if not, a clear idea of re-accomodation options.

Obviously, only a 'Maverick' would likely want to play the odds on this type of awards....but I think many FTers who can tolerate a controlled amount of risk and are flexible with their schedule, would jump at this.

My take: Far too complex for the average traveler, and perpetuates the chronic perception (true IMO) that the airlines are always scheming and conniving ways for anyone to redeem awards.

It is crystal clear to me that airlines don't mind "selling" tickets for cash for $250-$350, but they somehow seem to loathe to admit that they, in effect, DID sell these "virtual" tickets, sometimes years in advance, for hard cash, to their affinity partners instead of and in advance of we flyers buying them direct. If the airlines sell them for 1.5 cents/mi, they they are literally bringing in hard cash of as much as $375 for a 25K award...yet they then play games, scheme, and connive (some would argue defraud) us all when we try to redeem those same 25K miles...preferring to shake us down for 50K *EVEN AS* they may still have "cheap seats"" at $375 or less available. IOE - the airlines themselves seem to not have any respect for the fact that these affinity miles and points DID have a true hard cash positive benefit for the airline, and they seem resentful when we travelers try to redeem same. To their discredit and loss.

Talk about having your cake and eating it also.

But your proposed "maverick award" is just too complex for the average traveler to figure out; after all, I knew where you were headed and still had to read it a couple of times.

Bottom line - the airlines are very comfy issuing and spewing out zillions of miles to their affinity partners (Delta shook down AMEX royally last year (in their infamous pre-sale of affinity miles to AMEX) and then playing games w/ capacity controls, blackout dates, and such, to really make the game tough. Add in that the dynamic (I've seen it written) that as many as 30% of all award points and miles issued never get redeemed (forgotten, orphaned, death of the member, never get to the threshold to redeem, etc)...and we consumers should be enraged. Instead we are collectively meek and mild sheep, and these airlines will NEVER give back the takebacks they have scammed from us all much less subscribe to a complex "game" on their simple scheme already thats working so beautifully on their behalf.

Moral of the story: For me and mine, we have now bandoned credit card affinity mile accumulation strategies. We determined what we feel is the bext FLEXIBLE currency (starwood's starpoints IMO), and we focus on accumulating them. If you can't *beat* these scummbag airlines at the "REDEMPTION" game, then beat them at the "EARNINGs GAME". Your efforts are aimed at somehow convincing the airlines to modify their REDEMPTION strategy, and I think the effort, while commendable, is probably a waste of time.

To simplify...

7 days before a given flight, if less than 50% of J revenue seats are sold, FFP will open up 6 'Maverick award' J seats for redemption.

7 days before a given flight, if less than 75% of J revenue seats are sold, FFP will open up 3 'Maverick award' J seats for redemption.

The 'Maverick award' holder would understand and agree in advance that if the airline was able to sell all of the remaining J inventory within the 7 days, and was in an oversell/bump situation, the 'Maverick award' holder would be the first to be reaccomodated on a pre-agreed upon space available basis as follows:
* J Class on alternate routing
* J class on same flight next day
* Y class on alternate routing (member only charged Coach miles)
* Y class on same flight next day (member only charged Coach miles)
* refund member miles


The airline maintains its ability to maximimize revenue potential, with a minimum logistical re-accomodation burden and with a calm and
understanding passenger who has reasonable expectations because of
already being aware of the risk/benefit and transparent reaccomodation policy of the award.

I trust that this is a bit easier to digest.

I agree with everything ILUVCITIBANK has stated. The Maverick Award scheme, even in its revised form, is too complex for the average member to embrace. In addition, the general basis of the proposal, i.e. airlines are willing to part with no capacity controls at twice the mileage cost, is proving to be incorrect as CO NonePass members can attest. CO has been incredibly stingy with standard (capacity controlled) awards so NonePass members started redeeming more no capacity control awards at twice the miles. Not satisfied with twice the miles, CO has now increased the number of miles required on certain "EasyPass" awards in order to stem the growing number of redemptions.

Let's face it, some programs (CO and DL come to mind immediately) don't want to give award seats away at any cost. They don't want or refuse to recognize what ILUVCITIBANK correctly points out....that the airline already received good revenue for the award seat it is providing (via mileage sales to partners). Until they begin to embrace that concept, I don't expect they will be doing the FF any favors through increasing award seats availability. The only way flyers can turn the tide is to refuse to give their business to these airlines in any form, be it ticket purchases or additional mileage accummulation via partners.

I have a different problem to point out. beaubo uses the formulations "available seat inventory" and "J revenue seats" to identify the trigger levels at which the reward becomes available. However, the number of seats that the airline might theoretically sell on any particular flight is unlikely to be constant, and very unlikely to be published by the airline. Overbooking strategies and other yield management techniques may make these numbers incalculable. In a cabin of, say, 20 seats, the airline might be prepared to take bookings for, say, up to 40 seats at x months out, but reduce that number over time until the day of the flight. Or a sophisticated yield management system might be prepared to take more overbookings at full fare than for restricted fares at any specific point before the flight, because more of the full fare bookings will cancel because they're on more flexible conditions. And airlines may regard the total number of seats available for sale at any point in time (including planned overbooking) as a confidential number.

The "simplification" misses much of the point of yield management, from both the airline and the passenger points of view. Not every flight has the same sales pattern. Coach seats from the continental U.S. to Hawaii tend to be occupied by people who have planned the trip well in advance. Business class seats to London tend to be occupied far closer to travel time. The reasons are simple: last-minute business trips are common, but last-minute vacations are not. Yield management software uses the history of each specific flight on that day of the week, taking holidays and all the rest into account, to figure out how likely it is that X paying passengers will show up between then and departure.

Trying to pick fixed parameters like "6 seats still unsold a week before" imposes a regularity that simply does not reflect the real world. Sometimes having six seats available a week before means five will almost certainly go unused. Other times that same combination means the flight will probably be oversold. Yield management software knows which is which.

I also agree with prior posters that this isn't a simplification. I have a Ph.D. from MIT, have actually been a rocket scientist (control systems for lunar missions) and understand FF programs pretty well, but I found it hard difficult to decipher. Yes, I could figure it out, but let's remember the KISS* principle!
___________________________
Keep It Simple, Stupid.

Look at it from the other side of the market. If I were the airline, what possibly could you offer me in return for spending $ and labor hours in programming this additional set of seat allocation rules? It's simpler for me (the airline) just to deny you a free seat. Who cares, they will get filled (or not) in the end anyway.

I.e. why should any carrier bother doing this for you when it rakes in the same amount of money without doing it? To fill 3 or 6 extra (non-revenue generating) seats on a flight?


-- another logistical consideration: when you buy a seat now, whether paid or award, the computer treats your seat like every other seat -- in terms of guarantees of service, bumps, reroutings, etc. You are creating a whole new kind of ticket/seat, which by default can be cancelled, moved, bumped -- a seat that is not really 100% sure it is a sold seat, but is more like standby that can be displaced by higher tickets -- and with 4 different options for behavior. (I don't know if that's even allowed under the terms of carriage contract).

I would like to be able to get award seats easier too, but this is just my reaction on why such a plan would be quite unattractive to any airline.

My brain just exploded.

dupe!

The "Maverick Award' availability would only kick-in IF less than 50% or 75% of J seats were sold 7 days out. So, if any of the scenarios you describe above is happening 7 days prior to departure, quite simply, there's no 'Maverick awards' made available.

That's kind of the point here...once all of the crazy contingencies that FFPs use as pretexts NOT to open seats are exhausted, and there's STILL 50-75% of an empty J cabin 7 days out, that's the time to release to us the basically 'conditional' award tickets.

For routes that have historic high walk-up sales, then its the member, not the FFP that assumes greater risk of award seat having to be re-accomodated. Over time, members who book 'Maverick awards' on these low advance sale/high last-minute routes and are consistently not maintaining their seats, they'll decide whether to keep trying or not...its very self-policing.

This policy might end up only being applicable for a select few non-trunk routes, but IMHO, ANY incremental increase in premium class award inventory, however conditional, is a start. I have been on too many intl. flights where empty J and F sets abound, so clearly all the inventory management gurus and their historicles (or 'hist-oracles') are producing far more art than science. The 'Maverick award' is just meant to compensate for such J sales prediction anomolies.

Having just recently flown AF CDG-ATL, there were 2 out of 12 F seats taken and less than 30 out 56 or so J seats taken. Knowing how long I fought for my original award seats, finding out how wide open F/J were, was very perplexing.


With respect to complexity, then just open this 'Maverick Award' to top-tier members, who are more likely to understand.





Unless I'm missing something, all of the TA booking engines can peer into airline revenue inventory. If a flight is highly sold or oversold, then Maverick award aren't relevant anyaway. If the flight is selling under 50-75%, then there's no hiding from that, so I don't see any confidentiality or competitive advantage issues.

World Point is so much easier! Got my World point card 6 months ago. Got my first 2 domestic tickets for 40K. It took 30 minutes to book tickets on the airline of my choice and time and date for my choice. Got miles and upgrades for them, too. Sweet!

While I agree the above is more complex than the average airline and passenger would embrace....I do think a standby award ticket would be a very good idea. Airlines already deal with lots of standbys on most every flights (mostly non-rev) so this would be nothing new.

It provides benefit to airlines:
-Their miles liability is reduced without risking loss of seat sales...a very important factor.

It provides benefit to the FF:
- They can get on flights to places they couldn't otherwise including in premium cabins when they are willing to be flexible.

I for one would welcome a standby award at the same levels as current saver...but available on all flights, and no guarantees. You only get on if the airline can't sell your seat. (I have even flown to Africa as a non-rev standby before...and I would do it again. It cost me a couple hotels nights...but that is OK).

World Points doesn't give me any affordable business class/first class options.

AND World Points doesn't take me several places I want to go...because the cheapest tickets cost more than their $ cap. For me FF are supposed to be to places that I can't get a cheap ticket....

i agree ... pretty simple

Another problem is that this "Maverick reward" is based on every flight having at least 12 J seats. That is not always the case.

You will have to start adding "if" statements for contingencies which does not help simplify this.