How safe is Egypt?
 

I am planning a trip to Egypt to include 5 days in Cairo and a Nile cruise to Luxor and Aswan for 4 days in the middle of September 2005. I have read recently about attacks on foreign tourists and am a bit worried about that trip. Also it has been announced that there are going to be presidential elections in September.

In the opinion of the FT how safe it is to travel to Egypt in September this year? Should I just cancel the whole trip and go somewhere else?

I would appreciate any thoughts and suggestions on this issue

I would think it depends on your view of the world and your safety. From my opinion regarding myself and my safety, I wouldn't cancel because I know how to handle myself and I am not worried that I will become a statistic. But that doesn't mean no one else should. It should be an interesting time in September, but expect a lot going on because of the elections. I think that targetting foreigners will be less than just general protesting, but who knows.

There are people here on FT that chase revolutions. I don't remember the guy's name. There are others who won't go to Bangkok alone because they are afraid of white slavery. I do remember her name but she will go unmentioned. Most people fall somewhere inbetween. I think you just need to ask yourself how much risk youre willing to take and then go with your gut. I didn't feel threatened at all in my week in Cairo except for all the obnoxious tourists and the touts wanting to sell me their mother's mother.

I will say that if youre going to spend your time constantly looking over your shoulder, consider going some other time. The last thing you need is to be paranoid for a week.

Thanks Darren, I agree entirely with most of your observations. I need to spend some time convincing my better half about these relativities
drumbo

I just got back from a very similar trip to Egypt. I was amazed to come back and find people were worried about me because of the bombing. Really, Egypt's had about as many major terrorist incidents in the last 10 years as the U.S. has -- and there's virtually no other type of violent crime, unlike the States. What's more, since the recent incidents, the police presence at sites like the market has been greatly increased.

You'll be barraged by touts and driving anywhere in Cairo means taking your life into your hands (makes Boston drivers look tame), but you'll have a terrific trip and everyone you know who hasn't been will be incredibly jealous.

Regarding Fatilities in my neighborhood:

First: I think the average annual terriorist success rate on tourists for Egypt for the past 5 or so years is under 2. I felt very safe while there.

I think the average annual success rate of accidentals(drive bys, etc) regarding tourists in the Washington DC metro area is over 10.

The entire Wash-Balt SMSA has over 1000 violent fatalities a year. You want to go somewhere unsafe, go to DC.

If your wife is scared then why go. I personally would not go anywhere in the Middle East and I was born in Egypt.

>>First: I think the average annual terriorist success rate on tourists for Egypt for the past 5 or so years is under 2. I felt very safe while there.<<

Mmm 2 you say? About 30 + were killed in a hotel a few years ago in Taba. That alone averages to 7 a year in the past 5 years. And many more wounded? As long as one is not one of the unfortunate it's no big deal?

It's like playing Russian Roulette and going to the casino. Those who want to gamble go at their own risk.

Than I guess you never leave your house? Please. All life is a risk. Travelling in Egypt, one of the safer parts of the Middle East, may be a different kind of risk than the ones we take every day, but it's certainly not more dangerous than getting on a domestic air flight -- something I assume most people on this board do quite often.

I'll take a domestic air flight over crossing a busy intersection in Cairo on foot and/or a taxi ride to the airport anyday, thank you very much. One of the nastier things I've seen in my life was a black BMW wrapped around a utility pole near Heliopolis, including some parts of the owner... :(

Googled stats: Egypt has 1.875 fatalities per thousand vehicles, the USA has 0.190. That added up to 4,400 deaths in 1994, and I very much doubt things have gotten better since... so why are you worrying about 5 or even 30 deaths in a year?

Could be because terrorists TARGET tourists, drivers do not (at least so far).

Your up to 30 tourist deaths a year are, well, tourist deaths. Very few of the road fatalities are likely to involve tourists.

Al Qaeda attack against Israel. Hotel is on the Egyptian/Israel border. Significient number of the dead were Egyptian employees. More like 15-18 tourists.

My county is now up to 70 murders this year, with under 1 million population.

[QUOTE=TeaAddict]Than I guess you never leave your house? <<

It's a very "personal" decision. Everyone is free to decide what they want to do. It's safe as long as you return safe and sound. However tell that to the 60 who got killed 10 years ago or to the 3 who got killed in Cairo recently etc etc.

[QUOTE=slawecki]Al Qaeda attack against Israel. Hotel is on the Egyptian/Israel border. Significient number of the dead were Egyptian employees. More like 15-18 tourists.>>

Whether they tried to target Israelis is insignificant. They want to target all western tourists. However minute the risk, it still exists.

However everyone is free to make their own decision as it's very personal. I don't march straight into the fire. I avoid it. Maybe I think like this because I am from Egypt and left because of all the political turmoil.

Egypt's safe enough to visit and a tourist is far more likely to die due to a vehicular accident there than being targetted by terrorists.

That said, I recommend visiting Egypt now before it too becomes an increasingly destabilized place (courtesy of domestic and international idiocy).

It is not only Israeli tourists who are targeted in Egypt. A few years ago
eighteen Greek tourists were gunned down in their bus near the Pyramids.

Shortly after 9 German tourists were killed when their bus was fire bombed also in Cairo.

People forget quickly. Some are braver than others and are willing to take risks. It's a personal decision.