GU, Bretteee is looking at the risks to Western tourists, not the populations generally. The point is that they are specifically targeted in Egypt and (so far, at least) specifically avoided in Israel.

What are you saying: that tourists at a hotel or a cafe or club in Israel don't count as victims also (especially when it's near/over a holiday)?

A terrorist organization's "promise" being close to meaningless, the point is that "Western" tourists are not specifically eliminated from terrorist strikes in Egypt or Israel any more than non-"Western tourists" are in Egypt or Israel.

Bretteee is not looking at the risks to tourists specifically; for if Bretteee were -- and even if Bretteee were drilling down for "tourists that count" of just European descent -- the risk level in Egypt is statistically lower for such persons than they are in Israel.

Egypt is safer than Brazil or Israel for "Western tourists".

Typical targets for Hamas and its ilk are city buses and local marketplaces. Israel's terrorists are trying very hard not to hit Americans and Europeans. It's not that they keep their promises or that they give a rat's arse about them. Rather, they hope to encourage Europe to put more pressure on Israel and to make Americans less sympathetic to Israel.

A quiz for you, GU: since the Oslo accords in 1993, in which country were more Western tourists killed by terrorists? (Israel or Egypt) How confident are you in your answer?

Finally, let me clarify that I'm not suggesting in the slightest that Western tourists' lives count more in any sense. I'm focusing on that group because a large majority of FTers are Western, and many of them ponder the question that is the title of this thread.

That's amusing but not wholly accurate; and it's certainly not precisely true.

If Israel's terrorists are trying very hard not to hit people of American or European affiliation, then one needs to explain how lobbing random rockets and hitting marketplaces avoids Americans and Europeans any more than it avoids Israelis and others there not of American and European affiliation? If anything, Israel's terrorists don't care who they strike as long as the blowback is low or non-existent.

I'm confident that more people of "European" origin were killed in Israel than in Egypt by terrorists since 1993. Shift from 1993 to 2000, and I'm confident that people of European descent were more likely to be killed in terrorist attacks in Israel than in Egypt.

Since 2000, "Western" visitors are safer from violence in Iran than they were in Egypt or Israel. Perhaps Iran is a better choice to visit than Egypt or Israel. After all, Iran's safe until Israel, Kurdish proxies, Bushists or Bushist proxies start unleashing violence there.

We seem to be using different terminology. How about we speak only of Western tourists (foreign citizens of a Western nation on a leisure visit), since "people of 'European' origin" would include lots of Israeli citizens and residents, and some citizens and residents of Egypt as well.

Are you saying that you are confident that more Western tourists (as defined above) were killed by terrorists in Israel than in Egypt since 1993?

I said what I said above.

Have you looked at the numbers? If so, then you would understand why segmenting casualties in Israel is not always a straightforward matter -- for there are lots of dual(+)-citizens not identified (or even publicly acknowledged) as dual(+) citizens.

Egypt is as safe (if not safer) than Israel for people of European descent.

This thread is a fine example of how a "travel advisory" is often nothing more than a manifestation of a political axe to grind.

For "Westerners" willing to visit Washington or Miami if given the opportunity/resources: Egypt, Israel, Iran are all safe enough for "Westerners" to visit. Those telling potential visitors otherwise may well have an axe to grind against one or all of those countries.

Not to post reason in the midst of a nice offtopic debate, but let me respond to the OP with this.

I went to Cairo for the first time last year to pick up an AONE RTW ticket on BA/AA. Was a bit worried about safety and security myself, especially since I still look somewhat ex-military, which I am.

Let's put it this way. There are certain parts of Cairo - especially the suburbs - that I wouldn't feel comfortable walking around in, as it is very clear Westerners aren't welcome there. (I got together with a native college friend of mine who drove me around a bit and he mentioned the fact that it probably wouldn't be a good idea to hop out of his car in this particular location.) But then again, there are certain parts of DC or Chicago or Boston or New York that I wouldn't feel comfy walking around in either.

Parts of Aswan are supposed to be a hotbed for radicalism, so that's also a concern.

But the fact of the matter is that Egypt spends a whole lot of resources on making the country safer for tourists than for the common Egyptian, as the $20B or so per year it brings in is crucial to keeping the country afloat. (I vaguely recall that it went down about 40% once the Iraq war started and the Egyptians were not real happy). That means you'll see AK-47 toting "Tourist Police" (they wear the title it on their armband) at virtually every place you might consider visiting. That also means that as was said elsewhere almost every upscale hotel worth staying at (e.g. potential bombing target) has several metal detectors and private security staff. And it also means that any bus trip or cruise trip you might take will also have private security.

Sure, if you're wearing a super-bling-sized Star of David and decide to take a Quran out and desecrate it on Friday in front of a mosque waving an American flag and screaming "Death to Allah" you're likely to face Darwinian deselection. And if you haven't been to a third world country there are precautions that you should always take. You're not walking around Western Europe, and acting like a dumb American tourist will always get you noticed. But in general people are actually curious to hear a little bit about America and American politics that proves we might not be this monolithic cowboy-hat wearing country after all. 90% of Egyptians have an unfavorable opinion of the US but that doesn't mean they aren't curious to meet an American.

Also, if you're a male or a couple you should be fine. If you're a female, I wouldn't go alone unless I knew a bunch of Arabic or were in a group or had already made prearrangements to have a good tour guide, as Egyptians tend to look at single Western women like hookers. (You should have heard my university-educated tour guides.) Two women together is fine though.

And while, yes, its slightly possible you might get blown up by a car bomb, it is a lot more likely you will be fine, if just annoyed by the baksheesh (tipping) culture and the inevitable stop at the carpet, perfume, papyrus, and any other 'factory' where they will try to get your Western money in any number of sales pitches for schlock.

And edit: Since the OP sounds like they're Canadian, my apologies for lumping you with Americans. :)

"dual citizen" or no, GU, they would be reported by Israel as tourists and/or foreign nationals (Israel makes a point to emphasize when a foreigner is killed in these attacks). Let's include all such duel citizens who reside in another Western country as Western tourists. If we do that, then is it true that since 1993 there were more Western tourists killed in Israel than in Egypt?

I have no political axe to grind whatever. You brought in the risk comparison to tourism in Israel. I'm trying to see if you really mean it (before we turn to the numbers).

I said what I said above; if someone cannot understand that, then they are beyond understanding.

The lives of tourists, "western" or otherwise, are not any more valuable than the lives of non-tourists, "western" or otherwise. The risk for a person of any ethnic/national background, tourist or otherwise, is greater in Israel than in Egypt which is greater than Iran. [The nationality of tourists most likely to be hit in a terrorist attack in Egypt the last couple of years are unfortunately Israelis who are willing to visit Egypt and those who accompany them. Certainly no one is suggesting that we ditch our friends and family members in Israel just because they are "targetted" more often, right?]

The likelihood of being killed in a terrorist attack in NYC is multiples greater than being killed by terrorists while visiting the lakes of Minnesota or Wisconsin; perhaps we scaredy-cats should all run for cover from NYC, Egypt or Israel and choose to visit Minnesota, Wisconsin or Iran as "Western tourists".

It's fully within my understanding, GU.

-- You consider the risk of terrorism in Egypt to be "very predictable", but when pressed for your prediction on the specific number of tourists that will be killed by terrorists in Egypt in the coming 12 months, your most specific response is "Less than 16,503". You could say "zero", "50" or "250", but you wisely steer clear of this unpredictable figure.

-- When asked the simple question of which country, Israel or Egypt, has had more Western tourists killed by terrorists since 1993, you dodge that by quibbling over the impact of duel citizens on the definition of tourists.

Like I said earlier, I largely agree with your view of the big picture here. I just think you're taking a dubious route to the same point.

I never said that in Israel they had less terrorism. Again, in Egypt the terrorists look solely for "western tourists." In Israel they look for the local population and "attempt to avoid tourists." In fact they have officially indicated this.

It is up to each individual to decide whether they wish to visit countries in turmoil. In Jordan too they target hotels and tourists. Fortunately they have been able to stop them there so far.

>>The risk for a person of any ethnic/national background, tourist or otherwise, is greater in Israel than in Egypt which is greater than Iran.<<

You are incorrect. More "tourists" have been murdered or wounded in Egypt than in Israel.

>>Have you looked at the numbers? If so, then you would understand why segmenting casualties in Israel is not always a straightforward matter -- for there are lots of dual(+)-citizens not identified (or even publicly acknowledged) as dual(+) citizens.>>


Dual citizens in Israel generally are not tourists; they live there. As to Egypt being safer to Israel for people of European decent tell that to the 20 Greeks and 9 Germans gunned down on tourist busses, 60 Swiss, British and Germans slaughtered in Luxor etc etc.

When the Greeks were slaughtered the explanation was that they thought they were Israelis. The terrorists have a problem differentiating various nationalities.

When I lived in Egypt and my group were under constant target, the terrorists would end up killing French, Greeks etc "by mistake."

Let's not ignore the approximately 1,058 people killed in Israel since September 2000; people, often of European descent, who've been gunned down or been blown up on buses, at hotels, cafes, clubs, their family's house, etc.

Plenty of Israelis with dual citizenship (and even many Israelis without dual citizenship) are of European descent. Where such Israelis reside often varies from one year/time of the year to the next. In any event, an Israeli tourist going to another place in Israel and being killed in a hotel blast generally is still a tourist. Or do "domestic tourists" just not count? :rolleyes:

When you say "my group", who is included and who is excluded?

Contrary to your incorrect assertion, I am actually correct. For the time period I mentioned, the risk for any given person to be killed in a terrorist attack is greater in Israel than in Egypt (and certainly greater than in Iran). The ratio of killed and injured per 100,000 (incl. est. non-residents/non-immigrants) are quite clear about the relative incidence of violence affecting any given person in the mentioned countries.