This is my last attempt, GU. Instead of comparative numbers, what do you think the actual number of tourists killed by terrorists in Egypt will be in the coming 12 months (or shorter period, if you prefer)? You claim this is "very predictable".

Hey, if you're pretty close, I'll sing your praises. If not, I'll challenge your assessment of how predictable this risk really had been.

As I said in regards to the actual number of tourists killed by terrorists in Egypt:

That's an actual number, whether one understands it or not. It's not necessarily an exact number, but it's an actual real number, where X (the number of exact persons killed in acts of murder and non-negligent manslaughter in America) exceeds Y (the number of exact tourists killed in Egypt in acts of murder and non-negligent manslaughter). As I said before, risk is relative; also, predictable does not mean arriving at an absolute, exact figure. "Predictable" also involves relative trends and ranges. If some here cannot understand that basic principle, nothing reasonably stated will help them understand.

Based on historical trends, thousands of Americans will be killed in acts of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter in the US in the coming 12-month period; far fewer tourists in Egypt -- or, for that matter, Israel which has both: a) a higher proportion of American passport holders passing through/staying/visiting; and b) more terrorist incidents than in Egypt -- will be killed in such acts.

Even if one takes the worst post-1970 year for Egyptian tourism (measured by: a) terrorist attacks striking tourists; and b) tourism numbers estimated by Egyptian authorities), female college students in FL that year were more likely to be raped. For perspective, a female tourist in Egypt has been safer in that period than a female college student in Florida.

Brazil, Egypt, and Israel are just fine for American tourists. Of course if one wants to operate on the basis of irrational fear, that's nothing surprising either.

Why compare this terrorism risk for tourists in Egypt with the number of "Americans will be killed in acts of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter in America"? The risk of homicide here (and most places) is heavily concentrated in certain areas and among disadvantaged socioeconomic groups.

I trust you would agree that those contemplating a holiday in Egypt are, in general, at a relatively low risk of being killed in this country. They want to know the risk they face in Egypt, not that of a hypothetical person in the USA.

I find it odd that no hard number (as in a specific integer) comes to mind for you when it is "very predictable".

I trust you would agree that those contemplating a holiday in Egypt are, in general, at a relatively low risk of being killed in Egypt too.

Less than 16,503.

<<That's an actual number, whether one understands it or not. It's not necessarily an exact number, but it's an actual real number, where X (the number of exact persons killed in acts of murder and non-negligent manslaughter in America) <<


You keep on comparing risk of being a murder victim from terrorism in Egypt, with murders in America. First of all:

Not everyone lives in America. Where I live the murder rate is tiny.

Secondly there are only generally certain areas in America that are dangerous and most smart people know "to keep out of these areas." So with Egypt, Bali, etc same thing. Better to keep away till the situation calms down. Just my own two cents.

Lastly the numbers of killed generally do not include those who are wounded which increases the number of victims. Why walk into a fire knowing that you are a target?

What's your opinion of visiting Israel over the next 12-months? There are more incidents of terrorism in Israel than there are in Egypt since 2000.

So that's your idea of "very predictable".

By the way, San Francisco's rainfall for next year is also very predictable. It will be less than that of the Amazon Basin's and fewer than 1,000 inches.

Thanks for that tidbit; I don't usually keep track of the rainfall in the farther reaches of the Amazon basin or around SFO.

What's your idea of safe or not safe? Is visiting Israel over the next 12-months safe? As is apparent to most, there are more incidents of terrorism in Israel than there are in Egypt since 2000, but even most OECD governments are not strongly advising against visiting Israel. Most everyone I know who has gone to either Egypt or Israel during the last few years has had a very good time; and I suspect those who go during the remainder of this year will have a grand old time too.

Please recall, GU, that I agree with you on this larger point. I'd guess that touring Israel these days is about as risky as spending a week in a somewhat less safe than average part of a major US city.

My point is that the threat of terrorism is a very difficult thing to predict. Looking back at the number killed in recent years is somewhat useful in assessing risk, but I submit that terrorism today is a far less predictable risk than most.

And terrorism, while no more or less predictable today than a decade ago, results in no higher numbers of killed or injured today than a decade ago. Furthermore, terrorist capabilities have not radically changed in the past decade. What has changed is that terrorist incidents just get more people's attention in the US & Europe since increasingly people of European descent have joined the numbers of other people also killed and injured in terrorist attacks.

When terrorist incidents strike parts of Latin America, Africa or Asia, it generally gets less TV play time in the US/Europe unless/until such attacks have a large component of victims who are people of European descent or can stoke up racism, alreadly latently present in many populations. Thus, fear of terrorism is often heightened when pre-exisiting racist/tribalist biases/lenses can be applied. The net result is that irrational fears grow even further -- lockstep with growing "self-confidence" in racist/tribalist positions (which are often dismissed as not being racist/tribalistic).

May that be the truth. The fact is that nuclear weapons continue to proliferate. Terrorists are doing everything they can to get their hands on some. If they obtain one, that's tens of thousands or more dead. If they obtain a large cache of them, that's a direct threat to modern civilization.

Ok (sort of). However, the greatest amount of nuclear material that may have been acquired in a single transfer to a non-state actor known to use violence occurred more than a decade ago. And modern civilization seems to have held up just fine since then. Also, the greatest amount of nuclear proliferation is state-to-state nuclear proliferation. Whoopy-dee-doo so far. After all, even the majority of those formerly weak states that had nuclear weapons/weapon-grade material/components are asserting increasingly greater control over their possessions.

Modern civilization won't be going anywhere even with a handful of nukes in the hands of terrorists. Let's not forget the percentage of civilization wiped out by the Black Death at it's peak. That was a far greater threat to civilization then than a Hiroshima & Nagasaki was 60 years ago (or later).

Yes, Egpytians are very grumpy indeed according to this:

http://www.morainevalley.edu/ctl/Mid...im%20World.jpg

:D

but our government (or the Israelis') are more likely to bomb/sabotage Iran and kill thousands there long before some non-state terrorist organization from Egypt even sets off a nuclear device anywhere. Perhaps for the scaredy cats, Iran is recommend. After all, Iran is an even safer place for tourists than Egypt or Israel if one has an irrational fear of non-state actor-perpetrated violence afflicting them. Perhaps tourists should visit Iran intsead since non-state terrorists are even less likely to strike there than in Egypt or Israel, right?

Actually I disagree with you. Terrorists in Egypt directly target "western tourists." In Israel they don't go expressly against western tourists such as hotels and tour busses.

Indeed, when a US student was killed in a bombing by Hamas a year or two ago, Hamas issued a statement clarifying that they were not targeting an American, but that she was in the wrong place at the wrong time.

You really think there have been more incidents of terrorism in Egypt than there have been in Israel since 2000? If one thinks that, then believes misinformation. The numbers of civilians killed and wounded in terrorist attacks in Israel certainly exceeds the number of civilians killed and wounded in terrorist attacks in Egypt since 2000.