Tragic.

I knew this would come up like it did. ;)

.... and please keep my words in the context they originally were put in. A cut and paste or pulling things out of context from where the post was is unfortunately not an honest reflection of what I was saying in the address. (Reading the thread in order and the whole post in context would be more telling.)

And I don't value a tourist's life more than a local's life. For me human life's value is independent of the color of the skin, the residence, the faith and etc. of the person wounded or killed.

Seems to be on that trajectory still. Tragic.

That was your whole post (#27). It seemed to be a fairly straightforward assertion that being a tourist in DC was riskier than being one in Egypt. Did I misinterpret that?

Given the question raised by the OP, this thread really boils down to whether this is true:

I don't think it is irrational for a tourist to avoid Egypt right now. Tourists are being specifically targeted by terrorists who have demonstrated the means and the will to carry out their threats.

I might still choose to go there, but that's just me. However, today's attack (merely the latest in a series) amply demonstrates that a fear of terrorism by tourists in Egypt is grounded in harsh reality.

Clearly.

The Pyramids: less risky than being a US soldier in Iraq or walking in the shadow of the US Capitol .... in the context stated earlier. ;)


Fear of terrorism by tourists? Tourists did these acts of terrorism? I don't think so. Of course that's not fair to your post either. ;)

If you are going to take my posts out of context like you did, then I'm going to have to continue to demonstrate that "a cut and paste or pulling things out of context from where the post was is unfortunately not an honest reflection of what I was saying in the address. (Reading the thread in order and the whole post in context would be more telling.)"

According to the logic intrinsic in your posts, jewish people should not go to Israel either since jews "are being specifically targeted by terrorists who have demonstrated the means and the will to carry out their threats". Is it rational for a jewish person to avoid Israel now too? I don't think so.

Fear is rarely grounded in the harsh reality of reason and actual risk. That doesn't mean that fear is not a reality. It is. But it's not necessarily -- nor even routinely -- rational.

.... and terrorists in Egypt kill more Egyptians than they kill non-Egyptians. Of course putting up those images doesn't sell that well because it doesn't affect "people who are like us".

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N.B. The quotes attributed to me are only as dhuey posted them, and not necessarily in context.

In this thread, you've written about others who have axes to grind. I submit that this is yours. A FTer can reasonably ask (as the OP did re Egypt), how risky is it for them to tour Brazil, Israel, Egypt or anywhere else? In virtually all of these places, the answer about risks faced by the tourist is quite different than the risks faced by the locals in these places. Indeed, there is obviously a difference in the risks a local faces depending on where he/she goes (e.g., the beach in Rio, or the impoverished hillsides).

I'll give you the credit you're due, though. I tried to pin you down on the number of tourists who would be killed in Egypt in the next year. You wisely dodged that question. I guess you had a rational fear about how large that number might be.

That guess would be incorrect. No rational fear about how large/small the number. I said the number would be less than the number I gave.

I also did say (last year): The risk level is very predictable right now (in 2005); it's lower this year (2005) than next (2006). Didn't I say last year that it was better to visit Egypt then than now? Yes.

From everything you quoted above, I cannot see where I was in error? I wasn't in error before and am hitherto not. Who wants the number of wounded and killed in Egypt to be higher? I don't.

Don't a higher proportion of people get killed in Israel by terrorists than in Egypt for various comparable periods of time?

What axe do I have to grind? I'm not telling anyone to avoid a place based on irrational fear or any of various prejudices. I'll give you the credit you're due, though. I tried to pin you down with some questions and you wisely dodged those questions. Would it be fair to say that you had a rational fear about how that shows there is an axe to grind?

Sham el-Nessim, in the aftermath of the Alexandria troubles. :( And tomorrow is "Sinai Liberation Day".

Indeed, your bold prediction of fewer than 16,503 tourist deaths in Egypt is looking pretty solid right now. So is my prediction that the Royals will not win the World Series this year. Bonus prediction: Karl Rove will not win the Democratic nomination for president in '08.

Don't count your standard deviations yet. In 2005, we had...

On August 15, 2005, near the town of Rafah in North-East Sinai, a small, improvised explosive device (IED) detonated near a Multinational Force Observers vehicle, injuring its occupants. On July 23, 2005, three bombs exploded in the tourist town of Sharm El Sheikh at the southern tip of the Sinai Peninsula, killing scores of people and injuring many more. In Cairo, there were three unsophisticated attacks on crowded tourist destinations in April 2005. In one, a lone suicide bomber killed three foreigners, including an American, at Cairo’s Khan el-Khalili Market. Three Americans were seriously injured in this incident.

See http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_p.../cis_1108.html

2006 will have to get much worse (beyond today's attacks) to top 2005. Maybe it will. If it does, you'll be correct on the 2005 will be safer than 2006 prediction. Of course, at that point we would need to reexamine your whole idea of "irrational fear" regarding terrorism against tourists in Egypt.


As I've said before, not tourists in Israel. You hardly ever hear of them being targeted -- rather, it is ordinary Israelis. Are their lives less valuable? No. It's just a question of what to think about if you're going to be a tourist in Israel.

Your axe is this very idea of determining the risk of a tourist and leaving aside the risk a local population faces with respect to terrorism or other crime. You seem to think there is something callous or racist about doing so. I disagree.

I've added the underlines and bold in the following to highlight one thing that I agreed with and one thing I did not:

Cute, but that's not the point, and it's not in context. As said before, "a cut and paste or pulling things out of context from where the post was is unfortunately not an honest reflection of what I was saying in the address. (Reading the thread in order and the whole post in context would be more telling.)" Still, here goes again (even if the point will be missed):

The 2005 incidents have been noted, thank you. And I'm sure this thread can be revisited after year-end too, and I'll note what needs to be noted via that "prediction" at that time. In the meantime, some people can jump up and down and celebrate that lots of people got killed in Egypt (even if not as a high a proportion as in Israel) by armed persons. And then in 2007 do the same if there's an "error" or anomaly (recognized or otherwise) or statistically meaningful change. :rolleyes:

As I've said before, jewish people in Israel. I always hear of jews being targeted -- rather, it is ordinary jews, including jewish American and various jewish Europeans -- in Israel. Are their lives more or less valuable? I don't think so. Applying your logic, it's just a question of what to think about if you're going to be jewish in Israel, right? And the answer would tend toward "not visiting" Israel if jewish, if following the same logic, right?

My axe is not "this very idea of determining the risk of a tourist and leaving aside the risk a local population faces with respect to terrorism or other crime." (It is something else.)

While you've brought it up too, yes, there is something callous -- and perhaps even racist -- about downplaying the deaths of many (based on certain characteristics) while emphasizing (and overemphasizing at that) the deaths of some (based on certain characteristics), especially when the deaths are from the same.

Due to terrorism in Egypt, Egyptians pay the highest price in lives and livelihoods there.

To be revisited..... perhaps in 2007.

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N.B. The quotes attributed to me are only as dhuey posted them, and not necessarily in context.

Are you accusing me of such behavior?

Where? In other words, that's definitely not it.

... in 2007, perhaps we can revisit this topic upon prompt. An annual rite, right? Right.

I think if we divide Egypt into two sections, Sinai, and un-Siani, I think one section has been quite safe for tourists, while the other has had some problems.

Anybody who goes to Egypt on holiday is taking a substantial risk. And every time there is a big discussion on this Board with people saying that it is perfectly safe.

No it aint.

One does not have to be a rocket scientist to figure it out. One does not have to have a high IQ to figure it out. Three big attacks in 18 months as well tourists being hit in Cairo.

I still haven't seen any evidence that Egypt is more dangerous than anywhere else, especially the US. There are hundreds killed by murder in the city of LA alone each year. No one cares. This article http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la...ck=1&cset=true says that 46% of homicides in LA have not resulted in prosecution. 99% of the murders in Los Angeles aren't mentioned on the front page of the LA Times. Yet the LA Times is always ready to put on the front page murders of white people in the middle east.

Multiply this by every other major city in the US and you could statistically argue that the US is far and away the most dangerous and least-caring country in the world.

Really? Egypt is no more dangerous than the USA or anywhere else? How many tourists have been killed in the USA, Europe, Asia in the past 18 months?

Are the lives of tourists more valuable than the Egyptian lives lost too? Why the artificial segmentation of the two? Because Egyptian lives don't count as much? I certainly don't believe so.

Does the US even keep track of how many foreign citizens have been murdered in the US? Ok, what's the absolute number of foreign citizens murdered in the US? Given that what's the incidence of murder per 100,000 people in the US? How does that compare to the incidence of murder per 100,000 people in Egypt? ;)

You tell me. In case you didn't get the point, most all the murders in the US don't make the papers until they get to writing up the year-end statistics in each city. Then everyone is appalled by the thousands of murders that happened that year. My point is the US is far more dangerous if you go by statistics.