Nothing to do with bravery.

In the last 25 years (1979-2004), a higher percentage of tourists died from diseases acquired in Brazil than tourists got killed in Egypt during the same period. People don't remember that either.

GUWonder -you're doing my head in with these statistics :)

More people die from random gun attacks in the US, from snakebites in India, or from boredom in Canada, etc etc etc

Point is (again) Egypt has folk who are looking for an opportunity to murder western tourists. Disease is avoidable (don't sleep around, use mozzy spray, skip the ice-cream) - machine guns in reception aren't.

Which is why every upscale hotel in Cairo has a metal detector. ;)

I never feel threatened in Egypt or Saudi, or UAE, or Jordan, etc and I'm a tall blue-eyed American. :p Trust in God I say.

The point is (again) that the UK and US have such folks too and that safety and security are relative to real risk.

I'm quite confident that the likelihood of my being killed by criminals in DC exceeds the likelihood of anyone I personally know being killed by terrorists in Egypt this year.

Not too long ago machine guns at check-in were not generally avoidable in major US metropolitan airports either; of course, those guns were in the hands of the "security" forces. Then again, I'm quite confident that historically the US government is more likely to accidentally shoot down a passenger jet full of tourists than terrorists are to shoot down a plane full of tourists in Egypt. Even in the future this is likely to hold true too given a combination of possible trigger-happiness and paranoia in the US. For now, history is the best indicator of the future even though past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and thus time may tragically tell us otherwise.

Now (as in this year) is the best time to go to Egypt.

I largely agree with those who argue that the numbers of tourists killed in Egypt is small enough for it to be considered a small risk. However, we're not dealing with a natural, random phenomenon here. This is malicious human behavior in a very unpredictable place. Mubarak is near the end of his rule and we might be entering a very tumultuous, violent stretch in Egypt. Then again, we might see fewer instances of terrorism directed at tourists.

Also, consider the impact of having a terrorism attack against tourists occur somewhere else in Egypt while you are there. That would be more than a little frightening to many people.

In the end, I'd probably still go. Let's just be realistic about risk -- it's not very predictable right now.

Malicious human behavior is to be found universally, from very "predictable" places to "unpredictable" places. The risk level is very predictable right now; it's lower this year than next.

What is amusing is how people are more concerned about random violence that is improbable to strike them than they are about events/occurences that are far more likely to strike them (e.g., driving within 5 miles of your house to/from work and getting hit by a high-speed SUV driver side).

If anything, irrationality will deter people from visiting Egypt this year.

Okay, GU, let's compare your prediction with reality: how many tourists in Egypt will be killed by terrorists in the coming 12 months?

>>

GUWonder this is very interesting. Where can I obtain information about tourists dying from diseases while on trips to Brazil?

My mother got a terrible illness there (she was in the Amazon region); spots in the mouth and throat and it took months to cure. I got Hepatitis there and was in bed 10 days when I got back.

I don't know where you can obtain information about tourists dying from diseases while on trips to Brazil. I read about tourists dying from diseases acquired while in Brazil. ;)

So you wish to re-visit this thread on May 21, 2006? ;) Ok: fewer tourists will be killed in Egypt in the May 21, 2005 to May 20, 2006 period than our soldiers killed in Iraq during that same period.

As I said before, the risk is higher next year than this year. Risk is also relative: for example, more Iraqis will be killed in terrorist attacks and crossfire in Iraq in the next 6 months than tourists will be killed in Egpyt in the next 6-months. Of course, irrational fear of low risk occurrences is relatively high with some individuals (and especially certain tourist types). What's your opinion about visiting Israel? Safer or more dangerous than Egypt for an American?

My "prediction": in the next 6 months more Americans will be killed in acts of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter in America than foreign tourists are killed in Egypt in the next 6-months.

If you do the research given the current run rates from the 2001-2004 period -- and I don't get paid by you to share mine -- then perhaps you can tell us how many tourists (given the current run rates) would have to be murdered in Egypt before the likelihood of a tourist being murdered in Egypt exceeds the likelihood of an American being murdered in the US in the next 6 months?

You might offer this to Egypt's office of tourism:

Egpyt -- The Pyramids, the history, the splendor...and all with less risk to your person than being a US soldier in Iraq!

.... all with less risk than walking in the shadow of the US Capitol.

I just read about 2 tourists who died of yellow fever they caught in the Amazon.

I just read about 2 tourists who died of yellow fever they caught in the Amazon. Really gives me the desire to travel to exotic spots.

I've travelled to Brazil plenty of times, and everyone I personally know (including myself) has lived to tell the tales. Then again, it's been more Sao Paulo (and Brasilia) than some "exotic" locale. :D