I'm supposed to be in CAI with my wife in two weeks. I've read all the DoS warnings, so no need to quote those.

On the one hand, I've been to places like Israel when the news makes it sound like it is under imminent threat from Syria shelling it, and people just go about their daily lives. But, on the other hand, I don't want to be the "stupid American" that thinks he's invincible. I've also come to realize that anyhthing can happen anywhere, and not just in the middle east (I was sitting less than 50 feet from the first Boston Marathon bomb).

Here's the itinerary in two weeks. What do people think?

• Arrive CAI 5pm, have hotel car pick us up
• Stay at Fairmont Nile City
• Tour pyramids/Sphinx/Egyptian museum next day and attend the Sound and Light show that night
• Depart CAI 9AM the next morning, have hotel car drive us to CAI

I plan on asking the hotel to arrange ordinary, non-luxury cars that will blend in better than a giant shiny Mercedes. Also, I'm thinking that I should cut the Egyptian museum since it is right next to Tahrir Square. Also, as much as I hate to say this, I would NOT leave the hotel except for the arranged tours.

Thoughts??

Your itinerary seems pretty reasonable and your lower-car profile move is sensible.
That said, I think your "don't leave the hotel unless on an excursion" seems unnecessary, at this stage.
I would continue to monitor the situation between now and the time of your trip.
The political climate in the country is dynamic ... and somewhat volatile from an overall stability perspective.
Do you have a plan B if the situation on the ground was to become untenable?

of course you are safe. you are an american, and you are on vacation, and you dodged one bullet in boston.

in our extreme stupidity, we got into a war zone in nicaraga, and another in honduras. we also ended up in the middle of a civil unrest in italy, and again in france. i think all are high risk situations and sort of akin to crossing red lights in nyc, or crossing the dc beltway or playing golf in a thunderstorm.. just bad odds.

I do have a plan B if things get really crazy between now and then. All of our flights to/from CAI are refundable, and we could easily stay at our prior location for an extra day or two.

Overall, I think I still feel fine going based on the current situation, but I'm having a hard time describing what would be the cutoff point where I canceled everyhting. What do other's think? Military invovlement? Shutdown of the US Embassy?

Certainly if the tourist sights close, that defeats the entire purpose of going there, so I guess that's another cutoff point.

I would keep an eye on developments in the next 48-72 hours.
The Army Chief of Staff has given the political parties 48 hours to resolve their differences or the military will "introduce" a road map. Whether "introduce" means "impose", we should wait and see. But certainly the political situation is fluid, to put it mildly. With political instability goes general instability.

The Canadian Embassy has shut down in Cairo and pulled its' personnel. I do not think the analogy of Israel to Egypt is accurate. It is one thing to read press accounts of "imminent' threats and it is quite another to see pictures of millions of people in the streets protesting, multiple government ministers resigning and an American has already been killed in the street.

It is your vacation and your life, but it seems to me--to knowingly acknowledge that you are making yourself a prisoner in your hotel--is not a vacation I would enjoy! I understand you want to see they pyramids etc., but at what price.

As of July 3, The US embassy is closed. I'm not a "nervous nelly" traveler - I have spent considerable time in the Middle East, & speak serviceable Arabic.

Nonetheless, for me, this would cause serious reconsideration of my trip b/c it means that if things really disintegrate while I'm there, I have nowhere to turn. Things may improve between now and mid July.

I'm currently in Cairo (where I work full time).

Given the events of this evening (coup d'etat?) I would seriously consider postponing your trip for now.

Many expats who work here are making contingency evacuation plans - should the need arise. It's February 2011 all over again!

Hot off the press:

I helped a friend book an award trip from NY to Australia via among other places CAI. He had a nice stopover on the way there a week and a half ago but is coming back this weekend and has a connection in CAI again. He is not planing on leaving the airport but I wonder will MS keep flying? Did they in 2011? I recall reading about evacuation flights at during that time to Europe.

The airport is not affected ... MS' operations are continuing ... my company has people flying in tomorrow ... your friend will be fine ...

Thanks everyone for the input. Given the recent developments we decided to rebook everything and go to Mykonos instead of Cairo on this portion of the trip. Though, I'm going to remain hopeful and hang on to the Egyptian pounds I bought for a trip in the future.

Though, even up until yesterday the hotel (Fairmont Nile city) was telling me that it is safe and all the tourist sites were functioning as normal... The hotels must be getting clobbered.

The hotels and the tourism industry has been getting clobbered for a number of years now. ( since 2011) I would not trust them to be the arbiters of whether it is safe or not. They are not exactly uninterested bystanders. I do feel sorry for them.

I've been to Egypt before and would normally list as many others would - routine risk on a par different than America, but not frightening.

That being said, I think that you made the correct choice. Right now, this summer, is not a good time to be in Cairo. With regrets I share this horrific article about 91 confirmed rapes in Cairo in the last 4 days alone:
http://www.hrw.org/news/2013/07/03/e...exual-violence

There are going to be street battles in Giza, not a good time to be a tourist in Cairo.

Check back in a few months when things have settled down.