Your itinerary seems pretty reasonable and your lower-car profile move is sensible.
That said, I think your "don't leave the hotel unless on an excursion" seems unnecessary, at this stage.
I would continue to monitor the situation between now and the time of your trip.
The political climate in the country is dynamic ... and somewhat volatile from an overall stability perspective.
Do you have a plan B if the situation on the ground was to become untenable?