justforfun

Not a discount, but an effect of the "crisis"...

Peninsula Bangkok has been showing sold out from 12/30-1/4 (or thereabouts) for months. I was lucky I booked back in July. Just checked back last week and all dates around New Year's, all room categories are available. Very interesting.

TomCayman

Interesting thread indeed.

I run a "mid level" property in the Cayman Islands... which means high season (winter) rates starting at $300 per room... not inexpensive, but not luxe pricing by any means.

Of course I am trying hard to gaze into my crystal ball to forecast 2009 and so how I should market, but a few thoughts from me as a hotel insider, would welcome the views of the community ! :
- At the top are those who will still travel and don't really care about the price
- Some of the mid/top level demographic (and virtually all FT members in that demographic!) will be savvy enough to at least try to get a better deal than they might have got last year.. figuring that hotels will be hurting.
- We are certainly seeing an increased number of people contacting us asking for a better deal than we normally offer... though nothing like the proportion of such calls that luxe properties are seeing.
- Another trend is people holding off from booking hoping to get steep last minute discounts. Sometimes that may work, but other times they will run into almost complete lack of availability to top destinations/hotels at peak times, so a dangerous game to play.
- Beyond folk seeking value simply because it may be there, another trend is "guilt downsizing", where people are still doing ok financially but just "feel" like they should spend less on their vacation.... personally I am targetting those folks
- Moving into 2009, for those who a) are able to maintain their household income, and b) have relatively low leverage and reserves of funds, those people will have the mental / emotional balancing act between losses on listed investments and gains in net disposable income... as..
- Cost of living will (given a few months) plummet in 2009... gas prices, heating prices, airline ticket prices (drop in demand), fuel surcharges, commodity/grocery prices, mortgage interest rates.

Heck, need a better crystal ball !

elitetraveler

From GA News...

Honeywell predicts healthy bizjet decade


Honeywell Aerospace has added its own upbeat forecast to that of last week's predictions from Forecast International.

Surveys made by both organizations indicate that business aviation - primarily the jet and turboprop sectors - will continue to grow throughout the coming decade. Honeywell's report predicts deliveries of up to 17,000 new jets worth approximately $300 billion over the next ten years. The Forecast International number, reported here last week, was a slightly less optimistic 15,936 bizjets worth $223 billion.

The Honeywell forecast is based on responses from flight departments, production data from OEMs and other market analyses. It predicts a peak next year, with the growth cycle resuming in 2012. Forecast International's report prophesied a similar peak, but assumed resumption of growth in 2013.

Honeywell anticipates record deliveries of about 1,200 new business jets this year, up by nearly 1,000 from last year but still below last year's prediction of 1,300 deliveries. The report says that next year's deliveries could reach 1,400 business jets, compared to Forecast International's more optimistic 1,600.

Both reports point out high order backlogs and international demand as indications of the business jet market's strength, but add that there are some warning signs, including the current economic slowdown, fuel costs, user fees and U.S. market saturation. Those factors are expected to bring on a "shallow" decline between 2010 and 2012.

BLG

I agree that the business jet market is a good one. The great majority of those jets are for corporate use. As I look at things, business jets are productivity enhancers (and, yes they are also exec perks), but they are for the most part not like yachts which are strictly high-end recreational purchases by individuals. And -- if the economic slowdown is as bad as it might be -- plenty of corporations will start scaling back on their jet purchases as well.

francophile

Dim Days for Luxury Hotels
By JOE SHARKEY
Published: October 27, 2008

Excerpt:

Even as midprice hotels began losing business this past summer, luxury hotels continued to fill their rooms. Companies treated the hotels as perks for top executives and quality locations for high-level business meetings. And many leisure travelers considered a stay at a top hotel — even for a couple of days — to be worth the cost.

Times have changed.

Since mid-September, almost in parallel with the stock market turmoil, demand for fancy hotel rooms has plummeted. Patrick Ford, the president of Lodging Econometrics, said that luxury hotel room revenue rates “slowed in mid-September and really ratcheted downward during October.”

Revenue per available room, the standard measure of performance, dropped 14 percent at upscale and luxury hotels in the week ending Oct. 18 over the comparable week last year, according to Smith Travel Research. For hotels in general, the decline was about 8 percent.


Full article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/bu...sq=ritz&st=cse

username: flyertalk
password: flyertalk

elitetraveler

I think where you may be off base in your thinking is in your belief of a "pure" definition of "corporations" and how various missions actuate.

Outside of the Fortune 500 many corporations are owned or controlled by individuals, so it comes to a personal choice by the controlling shareholder or owner in the case of large private companies. Also, virtually all jets are owned by corporations, some simply formed to own the jets.

So here's a question: The CEO of a "company" goes to Phoenix on the company jet for a business meeting, he then flies to Aspen for the weekend to meet his family, then flies to Atlanta, Houston and Chicago for more meetings, then to Palm Beach and plays golf with a client and has dinner with his sister-in-law before returning to Aspen for the weekend and on Sunday night back to New York.

How would you allocate this trip between business and leisure?

What chances are the CEO is going to park his/her jet?

Kagehitokiri

from NYT article >

Raffles

"guilt downsizing" is an interesting concept, and one which I think will genuinely hit some luxury retailers. Part of the fun of buying luxury items is showing them off to your friends, and if your friends are going through redundancy / budget squeezes then they won't be too keen to share your joy at a new £1,000 handbag - so you simply don't bother.

That said, holidays are different because no-one needs to know exactly where you go, or what class you fly. Many FT'ers on average incomes have found they can't easily tell their friends they are flying in First on holiday, even if it is all from miles. I can't see people trading down too much if they can afford not to.

luxury

Just got this e-mail from Four Seasons about an almost chain-wide Spa promotion:


http://www.fourseasons.com/spa/the_d...ampaign=&path=

For the properties I have looked at, buy a 50 minute treatment and get upgraded to a 80 minute treatment at no additional charge as long as you use an AMEX card for payment....

robyng

Just FYI - I heard today that Carlos Slim - second richest man in the world - had lost about 40% of his $50 billion net worth in recent months. Still think he can afford the Four Seasons .

Also - I thought that St. Augustine Florida is the oldest city in north America. Robyn

BLG

I'm already seeing public and private companies cutting back dramatically on both travel and entertainment. This will be true for the "corporate jet" market, just as it's already true for investment bankers who I know -- who never would have flown anything but F or J, but who are now flying in Y. But as I said before, I think that yacht sales are far more correlated with luxury travel than are corporate jets. The planes have their obvious business uses, even if they do take the CEO to a round of golf from time to time.

Here's an article from the Chicago Tribune that bears out the fact that corporate jet usage has already fallen off.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...,6829672.story

I'm not trying to present a bleak "the world is ending, no one will ever stay at a nice hotel again" picture of things. I think I'm just saying the obvious: Luxury travel is not in the least bit immune to a worldwide economic downturn of very significant proportions.

erik123

But maybe he won't pay for his cousins any more - or rent two floors?

DavidO

This may be an indicator of future things to come from other New York properties ... but the newly renovated Plaza Hotel (Central Park South @ Fifth Avenue) is offering a Third Night Free (subject to availability) until April 1, 2009. I checked, and the Virtuoso amenities (Full American Breakfast in the Palm Court, upgrade if available, and $100 F&B credit) are combinable with this promotion.

mstraveler

It did not do nothing . We went to Thailand in the wake of that crisis and got $53 Priceline rooms at the brand new 5 star Marriott resort on Phukhet. We would not have gone without that tailwind. They may not have made money on us, but they did not have a totally empty, brand new luxury resort.

Revolution

Some Tokyo properties are heavily discounting their rooms. The Peninsula Tokyo can be had for 38.000 Yens this winter and suites are 50% off . Same goes for the Park Hyatt and the Grand Hyatt which can be had for 39.000 Yens & 23.000 Yens respectively. These 2 properties were both charging at least 50.000 Yens just 3 weeks ago.