shuigao

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries The meter I refer to has the infection rate. For Italy, it is now 1 in 3,424 infected. In fact going by this Metric China is only in 14th spot.

Italy 1 in 3,424
Norway 1 in 5,443
Denmark 1 in 7,204
Switzerland 1 in 7,598
Spain 1 in 8,936
Sweden 1 in 12,300
Austria 1 in 14,970
China 1 in 17,793
...
Singapore 1 in 29,239
Japan 1 in 172,413

Non-European countries excluded. The infection rate numbers are why I'm still on the fence about not cancelling my 26th March Sakura trip. Singapore's infection rate is 6x more than Japan, so in theory heading over is safer for me. Also, we have been getting a half dozen 'imported cases' daily lately, but they are all from Europe and none from Japan.

Also, I found this article really interesting. I think we all already know that the # of confirmed cases lags reality (because it takes time for people to come forward or be traced to be tested). The author tries to crunch numbers from China to try and find out how much it lags: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

Two key takeaways: 1. In the early days of China hitting exponential confirmed cases growth, the actual number of already infected was many many multiples of that. 2. Once lockdown was initiated, although the confirmed cases number continues to grow, the actual number of new cases started to drop. I cannot say if this will be the same for Europe.


Tomas Pueyo's graph, not mine.

JCC87

I'm due to go Tokyo 21/04 but with Europe now having more new cases daily than anywhere else in the world. I'm just waiting for Japan to close it's borders any day now.

mjm

I certainly will be hoping along with you that this does not happen. I have travel to Blighty scheduled for end April.

Taipei

Wow, terrible ending. Hope it was not as bad as it sounds

hailstorm

Apparently nothing serious, but he will be on the shelf for a month.

freecia

This feels like the truth in my area around SFO & SJC, too. Schools are closing this coming Monday and the local county doesn't release how many tests were run. We're really not doing well and as a tech hub filled with science and math types who are still people, statistics only gets you so far when you don't have a good sample set. Let's just say that I find it better for my everyday life to assume any of the myriad of symptoms could be coronavirus AND a cold/flu. This applies to myself, too.

shuigao I'm tending to side with mjm's doctor friend as someone who seems to be living in a situation where testing isn't readily available, quick, and no contact information is publicly released unless it is a really public facing role like the TSA or Fire Department. From what I read on the news, it is a very different situation to be in than Singapore which has good contact tracing and monitoring. As a person of science, I too look towards stats for answers. Certain places just aren't providing the whole picture - either because they are overwhelmed and clusters take priority over individual counts, they lack the capabilities to do so, "differences in testing approach", or "difference in culture". So statistic data quality really isn't the same at the moment. It could entirely be that Japan is better off than my area near SJC/SFO but I can't really compare as our statistics data quality is known to be lacking.

I'm playing cancellation chicken with an early April cruise from New Zealand. The cruise line should be sending cancellation notices shortly as they're globally suspending cruises until mid April and then it's dealing with airfare. I've normally been in Japan around this time of year and had been cautioning a friend to not buy tickets for May in Feb, as sitting on the sidelines without money in the game is far less stressful. We had already planned to cancel our travels while watching the local community transmission numbers, knowing we could be asymptomatic, and waiting to see if we would be asked to/given work from home guidelines.

It is also the lesser of my worries - I live with my senior aged parents who are generally healthy but still ... We've been reducing shared areas and contact points like dishes, utensils, and bathroom, especially after a co-worker said he wasn't feeling well on Thursday with body chills, no cold or fever, and is feeling better Friday. He did stay home once he felt unwell and I've been social distancing for well over two weeks (our health dept says 3 ft, not 6 but hey, no co-worker has been publicly offended by my distance), washing hands regularly, and self monitoring temp (our health dept. hasn't advised that, yet). Reducing and sanitizing work & home contact points. It's a few weeks of working from home here on out, too. I really can't imagine how to do all this while traveling daily, on the level which is needed, and come home to a shared household especially if you have to be self quarantined due to gov't regulations.

Onsens - I'm still admiring them from afar on Instagram I'd also worry about communal bathing as I usually touch my face while in the water with wet hands. I'm guessing others have also wiped their face of sweat or sneezed after showering and put their hands back in the water. Some onsens add chlorine but unless it was enough to irk regular onsen bathers, I wouldn't really trust how much is in there. I wish there were gofundme's to keep some of them afloat until things are better. So many day onsens are tiny places which only collect a few hundred yen, already, and must be hurting, much less Hakone and Noboribetsu.

MSPeconomist

OTOH if you think the corona virus doesn't like hot humid climates, then parts of an onset could be nice and relatively safe.

ainternational

Just cancelled my flight for today from Haneda back to the Bay Area. Mainly because, coming from Japan, most companies won’t allow employees to officially meet face to face. Mitigates the benefit of returning immensely, although I just remembered that one of my car leases may be ending this week. I guess I’ll be going over some time in the next week or so.

Honestly I’m not concerned about infection risk - at this point I’d rather get it and get over it, assuming the “re-infection” story about the older Japanese man doesn’t become the norm. I would surmise that was somehow an error in testing or test sensitivity, as pointed out in mjm’s post above.

What I am more concerned about is being stranded somewhere due to travel restrictions. Does anyone think it is likely that we would see JP or the US ban one another’s citizens from entering, much like both have done for some other countries? I wonder what the infection rates would need be for something that drastic to happen...

5khours

1. I'm pretty sure the U.S. won't ban it's citizens/green card holders from returning and vice versa for Japan. If you're not a citizen/resident however, it could be tough to get back in.
2. I think there's a high risk of anyone traveling internationally to have to go into quarantine for a couple of weeks. Probably self quarantine but maybe not.
3. I think there's a risk of flights being cancelled separate from any official travel restrictions.
4. I'd be worried about the risk of infecting others.

hailstorm

For the benefit of those that read Japanese:

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/articl...seven-soci&p=1

The short summary: Abe's message is "do as I say, not as I do"

LapLap

You’ll have to make your guess depending on what you know about the kinds of political decisions both the USA and Japan make.
If it was just about the prevention of Covid-19 then your trip to the USA seems extremely risky.
Germany, France, Spain, The Netherlands, they are all on course to experience the massive numbers of infections that Italy is trying to cope with this next week, and they are all implementing serious delay methods. England will be following it’s own genius/misguided* path this week to massive numbers of infections. I am expecting Japan to replicate its travel band for those coming from Italy to other countries in Europe with similar massive numbers of infections next week.
Unfortunately, the USA is another country which will also have massive numbers of infections next week and that is where your own knowledge of Japanese and US decisions come into it. My own suspicion is that if Japan puts in a travel ban for the US, the US will reciprocate.

*delete the part required according to your own ideology

invalyd

They have been announcing bans with 48 hours notice which presumably leaves you enough time to get home. As others mentioned, you'd also still be allowed home if you are a US citizen. The biggest risk is cancelation of flights , again acting promptly can likely avoid any major risk there.
so I wouldn't worry.

Regardless, I hope you'll consider the responsible thing to do is self-quarantine for 14 days after returning.

Q Shoe Guy

ainternational, where do you want to be ? Unless you make your choice quickly (remember that last week we weren't even thinking of todays outcomes) it will be made for you. IMHO whether you leave and go somewhere else, it is likely you will either a) be forced into quarantine, as you are arriving from Japan b) be told to quarantine at your abode/ hotel . Should you go somewhere else and return to Japan , you will be forced into quarantine (and perhaps at a place not of your choosing ). If things become really drastic, immigration could in theory refuse you entry to Japan as you are not a Japanese passport holder.. So make a choice while you still can..........

Despite a few on here who are continuously running around with their hair on fire, personally I am good with how things are going ! I am more hopeful than I am distressed and glad we are now in Week 3 of super-gaman ! So the choice is still yours , for the time being !

freecia

If I had health coverage in both places, living solo & no at risk family/dependents, Japan could be better than the SF Bay Area for the next few weeks. Japan's been dealing with a hot spot from the Diamond Princess - 2/3 of the positives have recovered. SF Bay, instead, are getting a fresh crop of imports from Schengen & UK plus many people who are looking at the flight cancellations and trying to get back, especially before our numbers go up & get even more cancellations + potential lock downs. There's been community transmission for weeks including at SJC TSA with 4 cases and SFO Alaska with 1 but really things are really just heating up as we get more testing online. Even if you aren't concerned about your own risk, think of the relative comfort you might have if you need to quarantine or get care.

Where would you rather be stuck? Assuming you are healthy, Japanese customers are doing business in person while USA would almost require you to work from home, especially for those in Santa Clara county? Pretty much every tech company which employs people who can work from home are encouraging people to do so by this Monday. Some started last week and did more than encourage. Many are limiting visitors to offices, for those still open. Restaurants here are having a hard time, grocery stores are currently crowded, and food delivery drivers & low wage workers wondering if they'll be covered if they get COVID-19. Santa Clara County isn't allowing groups of over 100, even 35-100 restricted, and most meetings are virtual at this point so people can keep their distance and/or take care of kids who will not be in school from Monday for several weeks. https://edsource.org/2020/california...navirus/624984

Try calling the car leasing company and explain where you are flying from to return that car. They may also fall into the list of places who don't want to meet face to face.

PAX_fips

Tourists in JP might want to follow https://twitter.com/JapanSafeTravel - they also provide a hotline, if you need help