Mar 5, 2020, 5:17 pm
Last edit by: CPH-Flyer
This thread is for discussion of the coronavirus / COVID-19 pandemic as it relates to Japan. Non-Japan-related discussion should be taken either to the most relevant forum, the Coronavirus and Travel forum, or the OMNI forums.
UPDATE FOR TOURISTS LOOKING TO VISIT JAPAN AFTER COVID-19 BORDER RESTRICTIONS EASE
Japan does currently not allow entry for general tourism purposes. Most visa waivers are suspended, and travel to Japan for non resident foreigners generally require a visa. And quarantine as described for the countries and territories below.
UPDATE FOR PEOPLE WITH VISAS THAT ALLOW ENTRY INTO JAPAN
The quarantine requirements mentioned below will generally apply to entrants in Japan. As the conditions of who can obtain a visa for entry on exceptional circumstances are not clearly listed anywhere, it is necessary to confirm entry requirements with your local Japanese diplomatic representatives
Spouses and children of foreign permanent residents or Japanese nationals, can obtain visas for short term stays (up to 90 days) by applying in person or by mail at an overseas Japanese consulate. Required documentation includes application form, letter with reason for purpose of visit, bank statement and Koseki Tohon. Processing times have been reported as on the spot to up to one week.
From March 1st, business travelers, students and technical trainees can again enter Japan. There is a need to have a receiving organisation to apply for the visa. For business travelers, there will be one point of contact with the Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare. Though the full details are not published yet (as of typing on the 27th of February, please add them if you have seen them)
Business travelers must have a Japanese company or organization apply for a Certificate for Completion of Registration to the MHLW ERFS system. This is a two step process. The company must first register and then apply for the Certificate for the traveler. These can both be done online and completed in less than an hour.The website for doing this is https://entry.hco.mhlw.go.jp/.
After getting the certificate the traveler must apply for visa at the Japanese Consulate or Embassy with jurisdiction for where they reside. (They are quite strict about this. E.g. you can't apply while traveling in a foreign country.) The information on the Consulate pages state that you need Letter of Guarantee, Invitation Letter, etc when applying for the visa. In fact, however, if you have the EFRS certificate, all you need is the visa application, your passport and a photo. The Consulate will issue the visa within 5 days.
UPDATE JAPANESE CITIZENS AND RETURNING FOREIGN JAPAN RESIDENTS
All people travelling to Japan has to present a negative PCR test taking no earlier than. 72 hours before departure to be able to board the flight. The certificate has to meet the information requirements and test types from the Japanese government.
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/000799426.pdf
From the 7th of June, passport number, nationality, signature and stamp from the doctor/medical institution are no longer required.
The requirement for pre-departure test will be removed for passengers on flights landing after the 7th of September 00:00 provided that they have received a full bases vaccination and a booster vaccination. Accepted vaccines are Moderna, Pfizer, Astra, Zeneca, J&J, Novavax, Covaxin.
Uploading documents in advance via the mysos app or via the mysos website is required. For details please see https://www.hco.mhlw.go.jp/en/
The arrival process is as follows. Countries will be grouped in red, yellow, and blue.
Red countries:
Albania, Sierra Leone
Yellow countries:
Andorra, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belarus, Belize, Bhutan, Botswana, Brunei, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Cook Island, Cuba, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Dominica, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Grenada, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, India, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Kosovo, Kuwait, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Liechtenstein, Macau, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Mauritania, Mauritius, Namibia, Nauru, Nicaragua, Niger, Niue, North Korea, North Macedonia, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Portugal, Republic of Burundi, Republic of Congo, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Republic of Vanuatu, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, San Marino, Sao Tome and Principe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Seychelles, Solomon, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria, Tajikistan, Togo, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Ukraine, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vatican, Venezuela, Viet Nam, Yemen, Zimbabwe
Blue countries:
Afghanistan, Algeria, Argentine, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Benin, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cote d’lvoire, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Djibouti, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Estonia, Ethiopia, Finland, France, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Jordan, Kenya, Kyrgyz, Laos, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Palau, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Sudan, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Uganda, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States of America, Western Sahara, Zambia
For updates to the lists of countries and territories and changes to the rules check the website of the ministry of foreign affairs https://www.mofa.go.jp/ca/fna/page4e_001053.html and ask in the thread for clarifications and experiences of entering Japan.
UPDATE FOR TOURISTS LOOKING TO VISIT JAPAN AFTER COVID-19 BORDER RESTRICTIONS EASE
Japan does currently not allow entry for general tourism purposes. Most visa waivers are suspended, and travel to Japan for non resident foreigners generally require a visa. And quarantine as described for the countries and territories below.
UPDATE FOR PEOPLE WITH VISAS THAT ALLOW ENTRY INTO JAPAN
The quarantine requirements mentioned below will generally apply to entrants in Japan. As the conditions of who can obtain a visa for entry on exceptional circumstances are not clearly listed anywhere, it is necessary to confirm entry requirements with your local Japanese diplomatic representatives
Spouses and children of foreign permanent residents or Japanese nationals, can obtain visas for short term stays (up to 90 days) by applying in person or by mail at an overseas Japanese consulate. Required documentation includes application form, letter with reason for purpose of visit, bank statement and Koseki Tohon. Processing times have been reported as on the spot to up to one week.
From March 1st, business travelers, students and technical trainees can again enter Japan. There is a need to have a receiving organisation to apply for the visa. For business travelers, there will be one point of contact with the Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare. Though the full details are not published yet (as of typing on the 27th of February, please add them if you have seen them)
Business travelers must have a Japanese company or organization apply for a Certificate for Completion of Registration to the MHLW ERFS system. This is a two step process. The company must first register and then apply for the Certificate for the traveler. These can both be done online and completed in less than an hour.The website for doing this is https://entry.hco.mhlw.go.jp/.
After getting the certificate the traveler must apply for visa at the Japanese Consulate or Embassy with jurisdiction for where they reside. (They are quite strict about this. E.g. you can't apply while traveling in a foreign country.) The information on the Consulate pages state that you need Letter of Guarantee, Invitation Letter, etc when applying for the visa. In fact, however, if you have the EFRS certificate, all you need is the visa application, your passport and a photo. The Consulate will issue the visa within 5 days.
UPDATE JAPANESE CITIZENS AND RETURNING FOREIGN JAPAN RESIDENTS
All people travelling to Japan has to present a negative PCR test taking no earlier than. 72 hours before departure to be able to board the flight. The certificate has to meet the information requirements and test types from the Japanese government.
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/000799426.pdf
From the 7th of June, passport number, nationality, signature and stamp from the doctor/medical institution are no longer required.
The requirement for pre-departure test will be removed for passengers on flights landing after the 7th of September 00:00 provided that they have received a full bases vaccination and a booster vaccination. Accepted vaccines are Moderna, Pfizer, Astra, Zeneca, J&J, Novavax, Covaxin.
Uploading documents in advance via the mysos app or via the mysos website is required. For details please see https://www.hco.mhlw.go.jp/en/
The arrival process is as follows. Countries will be grouped in red, yellow, and blue.
- Group “Red”：On-arrival test is required. 3-day quarantine at a government-designated facility is required, however, those who obtain a valid vaccination certificate may have 5-day home quarantine (or 3-day home quarantine + negative result of a voluntary test) instead.
- Group “Yellow”：On-arrival test and 5-day home quarantine (or 3-day home quarantine + negative result of a voluntary test) are required, however, those who obtain a valid vaccination certificate are not required to have on-arrival test, home quarantine and other measures.
- Group “Blue”：Regardless of the vaccination status of the entrants/returnees, on-arrival test, home quarantine and other measures are not required.
Red countries:
Albania, Sierra Leone
Yellow countries:
Andorra, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belarus, Belize, Bhutan, Botswana, Brunei, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Cook Island, Cuba, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Dominica, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Grenada, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, India, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Kosovo, Kuwait, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Liechtenstein, Macau, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Mauritania, Mauritius, Namibia, Nauru, Nicaragua, Niger, Niue, North Korea, North Macedonia, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Portugal, Republic of Burundi, Republic of Congo, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Republic of Vanuatu, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, San Marino, Sao Tome and Principe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Seychelles, Solomon, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria, Tajikistan, Togo, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Ukraine, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vatican, Venezuela, Viet Nam, Yemen, Zimbabwe
Blue countries:
Afghanistan, Algeria, Argentine, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Benin, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cote d’lvoire, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Djibouti, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Estonia, Ethiopia, Finland, France, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Jordan, Kenya, Kyrgyz, Laos, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Palau, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Sudan, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Uganda, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States of America, Western Sahara, Zambia
For updates to the lists of countries and territories and changes to the rules check the website of the ministry of foreign affairs https://www.mofa.go.jp/ca/fna/page4e_001053.html and ask in the thread for clarifications and experiences of entering Japan.
Coronavirus impact in Japan [consolidated]
Apr 19, 2020, 1:02 am
#1531
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 7,875
https://www.facebook.com/10001307844...035235703/?d=n
One (two?) gaijin’s difficulties in getting covid tested. Not sure how accurate or how representative this is of the rest of the country, hope it’s just an exaggeration.
One (two?) gaijin’s difficulties in getting covid tested. Not sure how accurate or how representative this is of the rest of the country, hope it’s just an exaggeration.
Apr 19, 2020, 1:11 am
#1532
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: TYO
Programs: Tokyo Monorail Diamond-Encrusted-Platinum
Posts: 9,633
Apr 19, 2020, 1:17 am
#1533
Join Date: Sep 2009
Programs: UA GS>1K>Nothing; DL DM 2MM; AS 75K>Nothing>MVP
Posts: 9,341
Apr 19, 2020, 1:42 am
#1534
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Hilton, Hyatt House, Del Taco
Posts: 5,380
https://www.facebook.com/10001307844...035235703/?d=n
One (two?) gaijin’s difficulties in getting covid tested. Not sure how accurate or how representative this is of the rest of the country, hope it’s just an exaggeration.
One (two?) gaijin’s difficulties in getting covid tested. Not sure how accurate or how representative this is of the rest of the country, hope it’s just an exaggeration.
As of now, the hokenjo (public health center) holds the key to almost all testing.
As I understand it, the most common scenario is for the patient to consult with a doctor who will decide if the patient should get tested. If the doctor decides the patient should get tested, then the case will be referred to the hokenjo who will then either refer the patient to the actual testing facility. Alternatively I believe the patient can call a hotline first and then it's decided whether he/she should be passed on to the hokenjo. Furthermore, I believe there was supposedly a change made where the doctor is supposed to be able to refer the patient straight to the testing facility. But what's been happening is that the hokenjo or even the testing facility would punt the patient back to the doctor because they claim the patient does not meet the criteria. A hokenjo in Saitama even publicly admitted to overly restricting testing access.
Reading so many anecdotes repeatedly of people being denied testing despite being obvious candidates. Typical example might be someone who had fever for 2 days followed by persistent loss of taste/smell, but being denied testing because she didn't have fever for 4 days.
I posted upthread about statistics related to the difficulty of finding a hospital to accept you if you're highly suspected to have Covid pneumonia. There was a report of someone being turned down by 110 hospitals.
In the 1-week period from 11th-17th April, Tokyo prefecture had tested only 1584 people (average of only 226 a day for an area with close to 10million people). During that time period, there were 893 new cases (ie, positive) confirmed.
Apr 19, 2020, 1:50 am
#1535
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: In the air
Programs: Occasional RTW club
Posts: 6,924
.
Reading so many anecdotes repeatedly of people being denied testing despite being obvious candidates. Typical example might be someone who had fever for 2 days followed by persistent loss of taste/smell, but being denied testing because she didn't have fever for 4 days.
Reading so many anecdotes repeatedly of people being denied testing despite being obvious candidates. Typical example might be someone who had fever for 2 days followed by persistent loss of taste/smell, but being denied testing because she didn't have fever for 4 days.
Apr 19, 2020, 2:25 am
#1536
Original Member
Join Date: May 1998
Location: Tokyo, Japan (or Vienna whenever possible)
Posts: 6,379
Despite this being a Japan themed forum my comment applies pretty much worldwide, I think it’s important to mention it here. I hear a lot of criticism of Japan by people both in and out of this forum because of testing procedures and I think that they are very wide of the mark actually.
I believe that if you go to a hospital to be tested and are found to have the virus and ate then hospitalized you’re going against common sense unless you are exhibiting symptoms which require the hospitals expertise to resolve. Common sense as he was here refers to that which would be best for all of us as a group rather than individuals.
I think that a better solution would be for people to go to the hospital when they are in a condition or approaching a condition, or in the case of those with chronic illness a condition which is likely to approach a serious condition when showing minimal symptoms but I don’t believe it’s necessary to test everybody.
It has generally become the opinion of many people in the world that the vast majority of us are eventually likely to contract this virus and a herd immunity will be developed.
it seems to me that a better statistics report is the number of people who have actually gotten the virus and who have come to the hospital based on the standards I mentioned above. Kind of like the way the normal flu is managed.
I see this whole testing thing like I see the Japanese proclivity to go to the hospital for a cold when people know full well there is no cure for a cold. You can tell them that and they may acknowledge it but they’ll still go to the hospital when they get a cold.
If in dealing with this virus they finally break that trend and start treating cases that actually need the expertise of hospitals instead of just trying to discover statistics then I think we as a country, and if it were applied throughout the world, the world would be better off.
I believe that if you go to a hospital to be tested and are found to have the virus and ate then hospitalized you’re going against common sense unless you are exhibiting symptoms which require the hospitals expertise to resolve. Common sense as he was here refers to that which would be best for all of us as a group rather than individuals.
I think that a better solution would be for people to go to the hospital when they are in a condition or approaching a condition, or in the case of those with chronic illness a condition which is likely to approach a serious condition when showing minimal symptoms but I don’t believe it’s necessary to test everybody.
It has generally become the opinion of many people in the world that the vast majority of us are eventually likely to contract this virus and a herd immunity will be developed.
it seems to me that a better statistics report is the number of people who have actually gotten the virus and who have come to the hospital based on the standards I mentioned above. Kind of like the way the normal flu is managed.
I see this whole testing thing like I see the Japanese proclivity to go to the hospital for a cold when people know full well there is no cure for a cold. You can tell them that and they may acknowledge it but they’ll still go to the hospital when they get a cold.
If in dealing with this virus they finally break that trend and start treating cases that actually need the expertise of hospitals instead of just trying to discover statistics then I think we as a country, and if it were applied throughout the world, the world would be better off.
Apr 19, 2020, 3:46 am
#1537
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2011
Programs: Hyatt Discoverist, SEIBU PRINCE CLUB Silver, Marriott Gold
Posts: 20,438
I think that a better solution would be for people to go to the hospital when they are in a condition or approaching a condition, or in the case of those with chronic illness a condition which is likely to approach a serious condition when showing minimal symptoms but I don’t believe it’s necessary to test everybody.
Apr 19, 2020, 3:51 am
#1538
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Hilton, Hyatt House, Del Taco
Posts: 5,380
Despite this being a Japan themed forum my comment applies pretty much worldwide, I think it’s important to mention it here. I hear a lot of criticism of Japan by people both in and out of this forum because of testing procedures and I think that they are very wide of the mark actually.
I believe that if you go to a hospital to be tested and are found to have the virus and ate then hospitalized you’re going against common sense unless you are exhibiting symptoms which require the hospitals expertise to resolve. Common sense as he was here refers to that which would be best for all of us as a group rather than individuals.
I think that a better solution would be for people to go to the hospital when they are in a condition or approaching a condition, or in the case of those with chronic illness a condition which is likely to approach a serious condition when showing minimal symptoms but I don’t believe it’s necessary to test everybody.
It has generally become the opinion of many people in the world that the vast majority of us are eventually likely to contract this virus and a herd immunity will be developed.
it seems to me that a better statistics report is the number of people who have actually gotten the virus and who have come to the hospital based on the standards I mentioned above. Kind of like the way the normal flu is managed.
I see this whole testing thing like I see the Japanese proclivity to go to the hospital for a cold when people know full well there is no cure for a cold. You can tell them that and they may acknowledge it but they’ll still go to the hospital when they get a cold.
If in dealing with this virus they finally break that trend and start treating cases that actually need the expertise of hospitals instead of just trying to discover statistics then I think we as a country, and if it were applied throughout the world, the world would be better off.
I believe that if you go to a hospital to be tested and are found to have the virus and ate then hospitalized you’re going against common sense unless you are exhibiting symptoms which require the hospitals expertise to resolve. Common sense as he was here refers to that which would be best for all of us as a group rather than individuals.
I think that a better solution would be for people to go to the hospital when they are in a condition or approaching a condition, or in the case of those with chronic illness a condition which is likely to approach a serious condition when showing minimal symptoms but I don’t believe it’s necessary to test everybody.
It has generally become the opinion of many people in the world that the vast majority of us are eventually likely to contract this virus and a herd immunity will be developed.
it seems to me that a better statistics report is the number of people who have actually gotten the virus and who have come to the hospital based on the standards I mentioned above. Kind of like the way the normal flu is managed.
I see this whole testing thing like I see the Japanese proclivity to go to the hospital for a cold when people know full well there is no cure for a cold. You can tell them that and they may acknowledge it but they’ll still go to the hospital when they get a cold.
If in dealing with this virus they finally break that trend and start treating cases that actually need the expertise of hospitals instead of just trying to discover statistics then I think we as a country, and if it were applied throughout the world, the world would be better off.
But I think you're in the minority. Even within Jpn, both the concensus and rhetorics have changed completely compared to early March regarding the need for more and more testing. Even my father who only watches NHK and doesn't take well to outsiders criticizing Jpn have come around on this and is now questioning the way things are being handled.
WHO has said from early on to test all suspected cases, and that's the model that just about all countries aimed to adopt as much as they could (except Jpn and a few other countries). In spite of that, Jpn government's appointed experts (namely Dr.Oshitani) argued against robust testing on the argument that that would overwhelm their Jpn's healthcare system. Predictably, though, what we have seen (and this is stated now by most opposition party politicians and increasing number of experts appearing even on NHK) is that undertesting has backfired and now we are seeing a surge in Jpn majority with unknown transmission sources while healthcare facilities are already reportedly overwhelmed. Countries that adopted aggressive testing policy from early on (Korea, Germany, Canada, Iceland) have had better mortality outcome without healthcare being overwhelmed. I don't know about what all the countries did, but I know that Korea and most states in USA decoupled most testing from hospitals. People got tested in their cars and makeshift facilities, and those that tested positive but without major symptoms isolated themselves in homes or other non-hospital settings. Yes Jpn has this tradition of admitting everyone and anyone into the hospital, but it's their fault for not learning from what other countries were doing and instead waiting until April to realize that they too needed to start keeping most of the positive cases outside the hospital (they're still struggling to practice this, though).
By undertesting, not only has the #cases been grossly underreported but the #deaths is believed to have been indirectly underreported as well. Jpn government has repeatedly made assessments about the state of the spread and justified delaying the call for State of Emergency on the basis of low #cases . But they were making public policy comments and decisions based on numbers that were not valid due to gross underreporting. Undertesting also clearly contributed to more silent community and in-hospital transmissions. Finally, as hailstorm says, we know that this virus can behave unpredictably even in low-risk groups (influenza doesn't kill healthy people in their 30's); so it's more important for everyone with mild symptoms who actually are infected to get the testing done in case their clinical course take a drastic turn for the worse.
Herd immunity is really a concept, not a sure solution for this particular virus. After all, we still don't know enough about this virus. We don't even know if infected people are even achieving short-term immunity, given reports of people being reinfected. Is that due to high mutation rates resulting in different strains, or the inherent characteristic of this virus, or false-positive? We don't know. Plus if you just let things be and wait to rely on herd immunity, you're going to end up with far more casualties. So imo you've got to keep aggressively doing everything you can to keep more people alive and keep protecting our healthcare and achieve immunity with vaccine (which will hopefully work, but no guarantees) as early as feasible.
Apr 19, 2020, 4:11 am
#1539
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Hilton, Hyatt House, Del Taco
Posts: 5,380
But the question is, is this nefariousness, or is it typical Japan? The plight on Facebook implies nefariousness and “hiding” of cases on the basis that the doctors wouldn’t provide a ventilator because the oxygen in the patient was a few percent too high to fall into the ventilator procedure, but I kind of question if they were suppressing stats, or whether they just didn’t know how to act decisively vs. following procedure even if the procedure required the subject to walk off an unfinished bridge, which is not unheard of in Japan (following procedure to the point of mindlessness, not necessarily walking off a bridge).
So I can't really comment.
But I don't know that a lay person can make a sufficient argument about ventilator needs. I mean, we don't know if the person had oxygenation issue or ventilation issue or hemodynamic issue or what. Was the person okay in the end?
Nefarious implies malpractice. I wouldn't associate Japanese healthcare with malpractice any more than American healthcare, not that I know anything firsthand about recent Japanese healthcare. All the doctors from Jpn I've met have seemed very committed.
Apr 19, 2020, 4:29 am
#1540
Original Member
Join Date: May 1998
Location: Tokyo, Japan (or Vienna whenever possible)
Posts: 6,379
I take on board what you’re saying but I think that the Concept works as long as we’ve got a quick response for those that go to a higher level of severity. I don’t think that mining for gold by sifting through millions and millions and millions of pounds of river sludge is really the way to go about this.
Apr 19, 2020, 4:34 am
#1541
Original Member
Join Date: May 1998
Location: Tokyo, Japan (or Vienna whenever possible)
Posts: 6,379
There're different opinions on this, and you're entitled to yours. So I won't say you're off the mark.
But I think you're in the minority. Even within Jpn, both the concensus and rhetorics have changed completely compared to early March regarding the need for more and more testing. Even my father who only watches NHK and doesn't take well to outsiders criticizing Jpn have come around on this and is now questioning the way things are being handled.
WHO has said from early on to test all suspected cases, and that's the model that just about all countries aimed to adopt as much as they could (except Jpn and a few other countries). In spite of that, Jpn government's appointed experts (namely Dr.Oshitani) argued against robust testing on the argument that that would overwhelm their Jpn's healthcare system. Predictably, though, what we have seen (and this is stated now by most opposition party politicians and increasing number of experts appearing even on NHK) is that undertesting has backfired and now we are seeing a surge in Jpn majority with unknown transmission sources while healthcare facilities are already reportedly overwhelmed. Countries that adopted aggressive testing policy from early on (Korea, Germany, Canada, Iceland) have had better mortality outcome without healthcare being overwhelmed. I don't know about what all the countries did, but I know that Korea and most states in USA decoupled most testing from hospitals. People got tested in their cars and makeshift facilities, and those that tested positive but without major symptoms isolated themselves in homes or other non-hospital settings. Yes Jpn has this tradition of admitting everyone and anyone into the hospital, but it's their fault for not learning from what other countries were doing and instead waiting until April to realize that they too needed to start keeping most of the positive cases outside the hospital (they're still struggling to practice this, though).
By undertesting, not only has the #cases been grossly underreported but the #deaths is believed to have been indirectly underreported as well. Jpn government has repeatedly made assessments about the state of the spread and justified delaying the call for State of Emergency on the basis of low #cases . But they were making public policy comments and decisions based on numbers that were not valid due to gross underreporting. Undertesting also clearly contributed to more silent community and in-hospital transmissions. Finally, as hailstorm says, we know that this virus can behave unpredictably even in low-risk groups (influenza doesn't kill healthy people in their 30's); so it's more important for everyone with mild symptoms who actually are infected to get the testing done in case their clinical course take a drastic turn for the worse.
Herd immunity is really a concept, not a sure solution for this particular virus. After all, we still don't know enough about this virus. We don't even know if infected people are even achieving short-term immunity, given reports of people being reinfected. Is that due to high mutation rates resulting in different strains, or the inherent characteristic of this virus, or false-positive? We don't know. Plus if you just let things be and wait to rely on herd immunity, you're going to end up with far more casualties. So imo you've got to keep aggressively doing everything you can to keep more people alive and keep protecting our healthcare and achieve immunity with vaccine (which will hopefully work, but no guarantees) as early as feasible.
But I think you're in the minority. Even within Jpn, both the concensus and rhetorics have changed completely compared to early March regarding the need for more and more testing. Even my father who only watches NHK and doesn't take well to outsiders criticizing Jpn have come around on this and is now questioning the way things are being handled.
WHO has said from early on to test all suspected cases, and that's the model that just about all countries aimed to adopt as much as they could (except Jpn and a few other countries). In spite of that, Jpn government's appointed experts (namely Dr.Oshitani) argued against robust testing on the argument that that would overwhelm their Jpn's healthcare system. Predictably, though, what we have seen (and this is stated now by most opposition party politicians and increasing number of experts appearing even on NHK) is that undertesting has backfired and now we are seeing a surge in Jpn majority with unknown transmission sources while healthcare facilities are already reportedly overwhelmed. Countries that adopted aggressive testing policy from early on (Korea, Germany, Canada, Iceland) have had better mortality outcome without healthcare being overwhelmed. I don't know about what all the countries did, but I know that Korea and most states in USA decoupled most testing from hospitals. People got tested in their cars and makeshift facilities, and those that tested positive but without major symptoms isolated themselves in homes or other non-hospital settings. Yes Jpn has this tradition of admitting everyone and anyone into the hospital, but it's their fault for not learning from what other countries were doing and instead waiting until April to realize that they too needed to start keeping most of the positive cases outside the hospital (they're still struggling to practice this, though).
By undertesting, not only has the #cases been grossly underreported but the #deaths is believed to have been indirectly underreported as well. Jpn government has repeatedly made assessments about the state of the spread and justified delaying the call for State of Emergency on the basis of low #cases . But they were making public policy comments and decisions based on numbers that were not valid due to gross underreporting. Undertesting also clearly contributed to more silent community and in-hospital transmissions. Finally, as hailstorm says, we know that this virus can behave unpredictably even in low-risk groups (influenza doesn't kill healthy people in their 30's); so it's more important for everyone with mild symptoms who actually are infected to get the testing done in case their clinical course take a drastic turn for the worse.
Herd immunity is really a concept, not a sure solution for this particular virus. After all, we still don't know enough about this virus. We don't even know if infected people are even achieving short-term immunity, given reports of people being reinfected. Is that due to high mutation rates resulting in different strains, or the inherent characteristic of this virus, or false-positive? We don't know. Plus if you just let things be and wait to rely on herd immunity, you're going to end up with far more casualties. So imo you've got to keep aggressively doing everything you can to keep more people alive and keep protecting our healthcare and achieve immunity with vaccine (which will hopefully work, but no guarantees) as early as feasible.
I think that now that we’ve established a pattern of behavior that assumes everyone could be a carrier and that everybody must protect themselves as if they’re walking around in a disease ridden world then it would be the time to shift the paradigm to less testing unless the cases were severe so that we can utilize the facilities we do have and allow people to get their heads around the fact that if it gets serious they will have care. Conversely if it doesn’t get serious they need to stop acting like it’s more than just a three or four day thing for them.
More attention to the number of cases and the pace at which they are being cured would probably be a good statistic for people to see instead of just this German style super high number of cases which doesn’t really mean anything because they’re not the ones being treated. Focus should IMO be on only the cases that are in the hospital or are the ones being treated. We need to be a little more realistic instead of just so chicken little about the whole thing.
Apr 19, 2020, 4:52 am
#1542
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2011
Programs: Hyatt Discoverist, SEIBU PRINCE CLUB Silver, Marriott Gold
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I take on board what you’re saying but I think that the Concept works as long as we’ve got a quick response for those that go to a higher level of severity. I don’t think that mining for gold by sifting through millions and millions and millions of pounds of river sludge is really the way to go about this.
At this point, both Japan and South Korea have now confirmed a little over 10000 cases of coronavirus.
Here's the chart of South Korea's cases:
And here's the chart of Japan's cases:
Which looks better to you?
Apr 19, 2020, 5:21 am
#1543
Original Member
Join Date: May 1998
Location: Tokyo, Japan (or Vienna whenever possible)
Posts: 6,379
Well, South Korea thought differently. They've been extremely aggressive in testing everyone possible and following up on the positive results.
At this point, both Japan and South Korea have now confirmed a little over 10000 cases of coronavirus.
Here's the chart of South Korea's cases:
And here's the chart of Japan's cases:
Which looks better to you?
At this point, both Japan and South Korea have now confirmed a little over 10000 cases of coronavirus.
Here's the chart of South Korea's cases:
And here's the chart of Japan's cases:
Which looks better to you?
Apr 19, 2020, 5:30 am
#1544
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2011
Programs: Hyatt Discoverist, SEIBU PRINCE CLUB Silver, Marriott Gold
Posts: 20,438
はあ!?
One shows a country that confronted its issue head on, and has now largely returned to normal life. The other shows a country that instead chose to play whack a mole with the tips of the icebergs, and is now worse off than it's ever been. How is that "equally bad"!?
One shows a country that confronted its issue head on, and has now largely returned to normal life. The other shows a country that instead chose to play whack a mole with the tips of the icebergs, and is now worse off than it's ever been. How is that "equally bad"!?
Apr 19, 2020, 5:52 am
#1545
Original Member
Join Date: May 1998
Location: Tokyo, Japan (or Vienna whenever possible)
Posts: 6,379
はあ!?
One shows a country that confronted its issue head on, and has now largely returned to normal life. The other shows a country that instead chose to play whack a mole with the tips of the icebergs, and is now worse off than it's ever been. How is that "equally bad"!?
One shows a country that confronted its issue head on, and has now largely returned to normal life. The other shows a country that instead chose to play whack a mole with the tips of the icebergs, and is now worse off than it's ever been. How is that "equally bad"!?
はあ！indeed.
Admittedly Japan failed early on, but I believe we as a world are at a point where we do not need to recreate the wheel in every country. I believe acting with maximum caution and efficient use of resources is wise.