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Coronavirus impact in Japan [consolidated]

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Old Mar 5, 2020, 5:17 pm
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This thread is for discussion of the coronavirus / COVID-19 pandemic as it relates to Japan. Non-Japan-related discussion should be taken either to the most relevant forum, the Coronavirus and Travel forum, or the OMNI forums.

UPDATE FOR TOURISTS LOOKING TO VISIT JAPAN AFTER COVID-19 BORDER RESTRICTIONS EASE
Japan does currently not allow entry for general tourism purposes. Most visa waivers are suspended, and travel to Japan for non resident foreigners generally require a visa. And quarantine as described for the countries and territories below.

UPDATE FOR PEOPLE WITH VISAS THAT ALLOW ENTRY INTO JAPAN
The quarantine requirements mentioned below will generally apply to entrants in Japan. As the conditions of who can obtain a visa for entry on exceptional circumstances are not clearly listed anywhere, it is necessary to confirm entry requirements with your local Japanese diplomatic representatives

Spouses and children of foreign permanent residents or Japanese nationals, can obtain visas for short term stays (up to 90 days) by applying in person or by mail at an overseas Japanese consulate. Required documentation includes application form, letter with reason for purpose of visit, bank statement and Koseki Tohon. Processing times have been reported as on the spot to up to one week.

From March 1st, business travelers, students and technical trainees can again enter Japan. There is a need to have a receiving organisation to apply for the visa. For business travelers, there will be one point of contact with the Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare. Though the full details are not published yet (as of typing on the 27th of February, please add them if you have seen them)

Business travelers must have a Japanese company or organization apply for a Certificate for Completion of Registration to the MHLW ERFS system. This is a two step process. The company must first register and then apply for the Certificate for the traveler. These can both be done online and completed in less than an hour.The website for doing this is https://entry.hco.mhlw.go.jp/.

After getting the certificate the traveler must apply for visa at the Japanese Consulate or Embassy with jurisdiction for where they reside. (They are quite strict about this. E.g. you can't apply while traveling in a foreign country.) The information on the Consulate pages state that you need Letter of Guarantee, Invitation Letter, etc when applying for the visa. In fact, however, if you have the EFRS certificate, all you need is the visa application, your passport and a photo. The Consulate will issue the visa within 5 days.

​​​​​​

UPDATE JAPANESE CITIZENS AND RETURNING FOREIGN JAPAN RESIDENTS

All people travelling to Japan has to present a negative PCR test taking no earlier than. 72 hours before departure to be able to board the flight. The certificate has to meet the information requirements and test types from the Japanese government.

https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/000799426.pdf

From the 7th of June, passport number, nationality, signature and stamp from the doctor/medical institution are no longer required.
​​​​​
The requirement for pre-departure test will be removed for passengers on flights landing after the 7th of September 00:00 provided that they have received a full bases vaccination and a booster vaccination. Accepted vaccines are Moderna, Pfizer, Astra, Zeneca, J&J, Novavax, Covaxin.

Uploading documents in advance via the mysos app or via the mysos website is required. For details please see https://www.hco.mhlw.go.jp/en/


The arrival process is as follows. Countries will be grouped in red, yellow, and blue.
  • Group “Red”:On-arrival test is required. 3-day quarantine at a government-designated facility is required, however, those who obtain a valid vaccination certificate may have 5-day home quarantine (or 3-day home quarantine + negative result of a voluntary test) instead.
  • Group “Yellow”:On-arrival test and 5-day home quarantine (or 3-day home quarantine + negative result of a voluntary test) are required, however, those who obtain a valid vaccination certificate are not required to have on-arrival test, home quarantine and other measures.
  • Group “Blue”:Regardless of the vaccination status of the entrants/returnees, on-arrival test, home quarantine and other measures are not required.
Vaccine certificate does require three doses of vaccines.
​​​
Red countries:
Albania, Sierra Leone

Yellow countries:
Andorra, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belarus, Belize, Bhutan, Botswana, Brunei, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Cook Island, Cuba, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Dominica, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Eswatini, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Grenada, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, India, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Kosovo, Kuwait, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Liechtenstein, Macau, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Mauritania, Mauritius, Namibia, Nauru, Nicaragua, Niger, Niue, North Korea, North Macedonia, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Portugal, Republic of Burundi, Republic of Congo, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Republic of Vanuatu, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, San Marino, Sao Tome and Principe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Seychelles, Solomon, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Syria, Tajikistan, Togo, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Ukraine, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vatican, Venezuela, Viet Nam, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Blue countries:
Afghanistan, Algeria, Argentine, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Benin, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cote d’lvoire, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Djibouti, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Estonia, Ethiopia, Finland, France, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Jordan, Kenya, Kyrgyz, Laos, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Palau, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Sudan, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Uganda, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States of America, Western Sahara, Zambia



For updates to the lists of countries and territories and changes to the rules check the website of the ministry of foreign affairs https://www.mofa.go.jp/ca/fna/page4e_001053.html and ask in the thread for clarifications and experiences of entering Japan.
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Coronavirus impact in Japan [consolidated]

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Old Apr 20, 2020, 9:54 am
  #1576  
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Originally Posted by hailstorm
All 1727 rooms of the Shinagawa Prince Hotel will be reserved for COVID-19 patients exhibiting light or no symptoms.
https://www.princehotels.co.jp/file.jsp?id=314324
Is this the one that once was a Le Meridian? Or is it next to that hotel? [Back when there was a LM near Shinagawa, there was also a Prince business hotel and IIRC another Prince hotel a bit farther back and up the hill.]

Now there are several Prince hotels (IIRC also in Marriott/Bonvoy, where one or two of them are LC) co-located in the same sort of garden area. It's confusing, at least to me.
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Old Apr 20, 2020, 10:01 am
  #1577  
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Originally Posted by jib71
Planned, I'm sure. It would appear that NRT has a stock of them - I've seen a photo of a stack of the boxes prior to being opened. My guess is that each one contains its own fold out platform (which looks pretty sturdy) and bedding. The outer box becomes the privacy screen. If you're a glass half-empty kind of person, it's on a par with the shelters that the homeless build for themselves ... on the other hand, it's also on a par with a business class seat that you pay thousands of dollars to lie on for a few hours in the sky.

I was just thinking how appropriate it looked for letting people sleep in sports halls or airport arrivals halls after an earthquake or typhoon ... but how suboptimal it is for this situation. I guess you fight the pandemic with the tools you've got, not the tools you'd like to have.


EDIT ー I think this is the manufacturer:
https://www.koei-co.co.jp/products/kantakun.php

And here's another maker:
??????? | J????????
Are the boxes used once only, or are they used again after having been used by someone who might have COVID-19?
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Old Apr 20, 2020, 11:08 am
  #1578  
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
Is this the one that once was a Le Meridian? Or is it next to that hotel? [Back when there was a LM near Shinagawa, there was also a Prince business hotel and IIRC another Prince hotel a bit farther back and up the hill.]

Now there are several Prince hotels (IIRC also in Marriott/Bonvoy, where one or two of them are LC) co-located in the same sort of garden area. It's confusing, at least to me.
It isn’t in the garden area at all. It’s a separate hotel complex that starts at the road opposite the Takanawa Exit at Shinagawa station up to the Aquarium complex. In their favour, the Prince Shinagawa Tower Hotels are VERY easy to miss unless one goes looking for them, it’s as if they are part of a mediocre shopping centre.

The Ex Meridien - now Shinagawa GOOS - is further up the hill, and behind the GOOS are the other Prince Hotels - Grand Takanawa, New Takanawa, and the Sakura Tower that is now a Marriott/Bonvoy.
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Old Apr 20, 2020, 3:38 pm
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Originally Posted by 5khours
Tokyo down again for the fourth day in row. (But need to discount for Mondays so we'll see what happens tomorrow.)
Difficult to get a precise read on the situation or trends when the testing pattern is so up and down day to day like below (from toyokeizai.net).

That combined with the fact that they're still only averaging 300 or less tests per day and >50% of test results are positive.
With this type of volume, there're never going to be much more than 200 new cases on any given day just cuz of the limited testing.
And yet public officials and government-picked experts keep referencing these numbers and draw conclusions based on them.
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Old Apr 20, 2020, 3:46 pm
  #1580  
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MSPeconomist here is a satellite photo that should clear this up:

Shinagawa Prince Hotels (they are in three different towers) are ringed in yellow. They are opposite Shinagawa Station.

Shinagawa GOOS (Ex Meridien) is ringed in blue.

The Takanawa Prince hotels and the Bonvoy Sakura Tower are ringed in red.

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Old Apr 20, 2020, 3:58 pm
  #1581  
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Originally Posted by Q Shoe Guy
Does either of you think that even 10% percent of the agglomeration is occupied ? They should turn the whole thing into the Corona Prince resort and build walls around it to.........There is an aquarium, movie theatre , McDonalds, Outback, 7/11.........what more do they need ?
I just remembered that one of the few powers granted to the government is the ability to commandeer property for medical use without the owner's permission.

So perhaps the only choice places like Prince Hotel have in this situation is how to frame their participation.
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Old Apr 20, 2020, 4:05 pm
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Originally Posted by s0ssos
Japan is doomed. I predict it. With 100% certainty.
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Doomed could mean a lot of different things, but in terms of health outcome I have a feeling things won't get anywhere near as bad in Jpn as it has in UK or Spain.
I certainly think the masking culture and lack of touchy-feely habits have helped. People are mostly compliant. There's a lot less sense of entitlement. All of that helps mitigate risks of third and fourth waves. There's a lot of idiots in leadership with oligarchical expert panel that's been way off mark thus far, but on the other hand there're so many smart people in Jpn. There's a lot of prowess in the domestic industry capable of providing necessary supplies. It's a largely homogenous nation with inbound travel now mostly cut off. More than anything, temp and humidity are rising up just when you need it.

Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
Is this the one that once was a Le Meridian?
I haven't heard that name in a long time. In fact, this may be the first time in ~20 years I'm reminded of that hotel name.
I believe it was called Hotel Pacific Meridian. Was that a Le Meridian hotel? I've stayed in the Keikyu Ex reincarnation. It's sort of a glorified business hotel.
The Prince that's been turned into Corona housing is in the different nearby complex as Laplap said. There're different wings/towers in Shinagawa Prince complex, but both times I've stayed it was a dump.
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Old Apr 20, 2020, 5:36 pm
  #1583  
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Does anyone not believe that Seibu Group will be heavily compensated ? And if they spin it correctly, they could look like saviours. With the way the tourism and business travel markets have collapsed Seibu Group are sitting on many 1,000's of rooms that need filling on a daily basis just in that location.
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Old Apr 20, 2020, 5:47 pm
  #1584  
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Originally Posted by Q Shoe Guy
Does anyone not believe that Seibu Group will be heavily compensated ?
Just like all the other businesses are being heavily compensated by the national government for their cooperation?
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Old Apr 20, 2020, 6:01 pm
  #1585  
 
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Originally Posted by evergrn
Difficult to get a precise read on the situation or trends when the testing pattern is so up and down day to day like below (from toyokeizai.net).

That combined with the fact that they're still only averaging 300 or less tests per day and >50% of test results are positive.
With this type of volume, there're never going to be much more than 200 new cases on any given day just cuz of the limited testing.
And yet public officials and government-picked experts keep referencing these numbers and draw conclusions based on them.
I'm not sure it's so much the volume. If you have a fixed test routine (e.g. cough and fever for 3 days before testing), the number of positive test results is a very good indicator for total number of actual new infections (less a time lag) even though the number of new infections might by 5x or 10x the number of positive test results. You might not know the ratio, but changes will be very closely correlated.

Rather than the absolute volume of tests, the daily variation in number of tests suggests that the test routine may not be fixed and therefore is not a good indicator for the number of actual cases. I don't think we can be certain of this though, because a) the natural growth curve of the infection may have a sinusoidal component, which causes an oscillation in the number of new daily symptomatic cases, or b) the testing may be related to discovery of clusters which occur more randomly.

The other good indicator of the number of infections is the number of deaths even though there is a longer time lag. The data from this over the last month is broadly consistent with what is being seen from test results.

Last edited by 5khours; Apr 20, 2020 at 6:15 pm
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Old Apr 20, 2020, 6:11 pm
  #1586  
 
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It's interesting that Seibu has a hold on so much real estate in Shinagawa, even though Seibu does not serve Shinagawa.
I think Shinagawa is well-positioned to be both the gateway and one of the major hubs of Tokyo.
It's got huge untapped potential.
It's perfect that Seibu is loaning out that dump of a hotel to this Coronavirus effort. And after this situation is over, maybe they could blow up that Shinagawa Prince complex and turn it into a modern office/residential/retail/dining/hotel complex.
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Old Apr 20, 2020, 6:13 pm
  #1587  
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Originally Posted by evergrn
It's interesting that Seibu has a hold on so much real estate in Shinagawa, even though Seibu does not serve Shinagawa.
You know the story of Prince hotels, right? Especially why it's called "Prince Hotels".
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Old Apr 20, 2020, 6:21 pm
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Originally Posted by 5khours
I'm not sure it's so much the volume. If you have a fixed test routine (e.g. cough and fever for 3 days before testing), the number of positive test results is a very good indicator for total number of actual new infections (less a time lag) even though the number of new infections might by 5x or 10x the number of positive test results. You might not now the ratio, but changes will be very closely correlated.

Rather than the absolute volume of tests, the daily variation in number of tests suggests that the test routine may not be fixed and therefore is not a good indicator for the number of actual cases. I don't think we can be certain of this though, because a) the natural growth curve of the infection may have a sinusoidal component, which causes an oscillation in the number of new daily symptomatic cases, or b) the testing may be related to discovery of clusters which occur more randomly.

The other good indicator of the number of infections is the number of deaths even though there is a longer time lag. The data from this over the last month is broadly consistent with what is being seen from test results.
I have to admit you kind of lost me when you started talking about sinusoidal and this and that.
I think you're agreeing with me that the day-to-day variation in number of tests is problematic if one were to try to assess trends based on these numbers.
I suppose one could extrapolate out the infection incidence estimate by having a fixed test routine while keeping the number of tests low. Then again, I think it's difficult to adhere to the same testing criteria and rather the decision on testing has to be on case by case basis. You can't have the same testing criteria for healthcare workers as for general public (don't want to wait to test a nurse until she's been febrile for 4 days). And as an outbreak occurs at given hospitals on a given day, you'd then end up conducting mass testing at that site and thus the proportions of tests administered based on one set of criteria vs another might vary greatly from day to day.
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Old Apr 20, 2020, 7:54 pm
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Originally Posted by hailstorm
You know the story of Prince hotels, right? Especially why it's called "Prince Hotels".
It’s named after the singer?
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Old Apr 20, 2020, 8:23 pm
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Originally Posted by hailstorm
You know the story of Prince hotels, right? Especially why it's called "Prince Hotels".
It's an abbreviation for "The land formerly owned by a Prince" Hotels. There's a single ideogram that represents the concept but nobody knows how to read it.

Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
Are the boxes used once only, or are they used again after having been used by someone who might have COVID-19?
Since arriving passengers are tested, I guess the airport will know which beds were used by people with detectable viral loads. I guess that they would destroy at least those boxes.

Originally Posted by 5khours
With regards to testing, I think it's benefit in reducing transmission is hard to tell unless you can answer the following questions.

1. At what point after infection, will a test return a positive result.
2. At what point after infection can the virus be transmitted.
3. How does transmissibility vary between asymptomatic and symptomatic carrier.
4. What percentage of people with symptoms will self-isolate.
5. How long does it take after being identified as a possible carrier to a) get tested, b) get the result, c) identify your contacts, d) have your contacts tested, and e) get results from those tests. What is the total elapsed number of days.
WHO report from April 2nd offers clues to some of these questions:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200402-sitrep-73-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=5ae25bc7_2
  • Incubation period is, on av., 5-6 days.
  • People can test positive for COVID-19 from 1-3 days before they develop symptoms.
  • Shedding of the COVID-19 virus is highest in the first 3 days from onset of symptoms

From this I guess that a typical case might look like this:

Day 1 - Infection
Day 3 - Viral load reaches detectable levels
Day 4-5 - Pre-symptomatic shedding
Day 6-9 Onset of symptoms (generally mild at this point) and peak shedding

A contact tracing program that could trace contacts of symptomatic patients on days 6 to 9 after they were infected would support interventions with the infected contacts on days 3-5 of their infections (i.e. before the peak shedding phase).

Testing capability at that point (Day 3-5) is a nice-to-have but if you don't have the capacity to test contacts, you could just persuade them to isolate. Apparently, the state of Kerala in India has been quite successful at mobilizing local teams to do this.

With a four hour (or shorter) test, you stand a decent chance of isolating the right people during the pre-symptomatic shedding phase but that appears to be less important than persuading mildly symptomatic people to isolate.
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