AA_EXP09

It doesn't make sense to me.
A TATL to YVR from LON is already 10 hours, add another 5+ hours to get to HNL.

GRALISTAIR

Are continuation flights allowed? So BA doing LHR (or LGW as they specialize in handling holiday traffic) to SEA or SFO or LAX or LAS and continuing (new crew + refuel if necessary but same aircraft) onto HNL could even go on to Fiji. Or would that defeat the whole object? Just do LGW/LHR take Santa's shortcut onto HNL. So by definition Hawaian Airlines could do the same.

LIH Prem

It's 7200+ miles, definitely a long flight.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LHR-YVR...&EV=410&EU=kts

AA_EXP09

Longer than a SFO-HKG flight...

LIH Prem

Indeed.

-David

BarryAZ

We vacation on the Big Island nearly every year -- from the Phoenix area.

USAirways has a non-stop from Phoenix (using Hawaiian is a one stop - Phoenix/Honolulu and back to Kona). Honolulu is not on my favourite stop over list though.

Our alternative is to sandwich it in using Alaska Airlines via Portland where we have good friends.

Now if Hawaiian offered a non-stop to Kona from Phoenix and used a 330 with lie flat business class, we'd be up for that.

As to long haul flights -- we are planning on that next year. Going to Australia and NZ. Likely from LA using Cathay Pacific LA/HKG/Brisbaine and then Auckland/HKG/LA -- why Cathay? Frequent flyer miles via Alaska for either first class or business class. There are other airlines we might use, but we'd rather travel Cathay Pacific than Korean Air or <shudder> Air Pacific (Fiji). Alaska also pairs with Delta and Qantas, but getting FF with them is just about impossible.

Now if Alaska were partnered with HA, then that trip could be using HA Phoenix/Honolulu/Brisbane and Auckland/Honolulu/Phoenix -- but they are not and, for that matter, I don't think either the A330's or B767's that HA has have any lie flat seats either.

AA_EXP09

Cheapest fare on SFO-HKG is just over $1000 (based on CX/UA comparison of cheapest fare)
I don't see people paying $1000+ to go to HNL so I doubt that they could make the route work (and presumably CX is selling the seat at below cost.)

irishguy28

I don't know if BA/any European airline would have the necessary rights to operate such a flight, stopping in one US port before continuing to another (HNL), and even if they could, they definitely would not have the right to pick up passengers for carriage only between the US ports, which would make such a service harder to justify (only US carriers can carry passengers on domestic sectors entirely within the United States).

HA would be able to do this, however, and could perhaps make it work - but I think it's unlikely. I could never imagine HA operating non-stop services to Europe. There just wouldn't be the market/demand to sustain such a service. My guess is that most Europeans that find their way to Hawaii like to stop off in the continental United States in either, if not both, directions, taking in Hawaii as part of a longer, multi-centre holiday.

LIH Prem

they are making it work on other routes and people that fly from UK and EU to Hawaii today pay more than that.

That seems to be where Dunkerly has been successful, making routes work that haven't worked or don't work for others.

Anyway, no matter how you look at it or agree/disagree with an opinion here, that's all it is at this point.

They could do it via YVR.

-David

tdowl5757

"It's still some five years until those aircraft arrive in our fleets," Dunkerley added cautiously, "and so we certainly watch Europe very closely with absolutely not making any commitments right now."

Perhaps in a few years it might make sense, and for purely selfish reasons, I hope so....

DCF

I admire Dunkerly, but considering that he's English, he's totally missing the point.

The key issues here are:

1. Ultra-Long-Haul non-stop flights are too expensive to operate.

2. British and European people will fly 14 hours for a 2 week beach vacation: they already do to Thailand, Malaysia, Bali, Mauritius, Maldives.

3. Existing scheduled long-haul leisure flights from the UK cater to travellers who correspond to 4 star (Outrigger), 5 star (Hilton, Westin, Sheraton, Marriott) and Luxury (Halekulani, Royal Hawaiian, Ritz-Carlton, Four Seasons and St Regis properties. 4 star passengers buy full-service Economy return fares at around $1500 return, 5 star passengers buy Premium Economy (38 inch pitch, unlimited free drinks for $3000 return) and luxury passengers buy Business Class (flat bed for $5000 return).

4. All of these groups avoid Hawaii currently, because getting there involves an acceptable 7 hour flight to the East Coast followed by an unacceptable quality 9 hour flight to Hawaii without food and IFE and blankets and pillows included. They also require long transits at their mainland gateway.

It seems to me that the solution will require Hawaiian to

1. Operate two separate fleets, one for domestic flights to the West Coast (an A330 configured 18 First (recliner) and 276 Coach) and the other for Japan, Korea, New York and Europe (6 lie-flat Business, 18 Premium Economy using domestic First seats, 252 Coach).

2. Extend the New York flight to London (x3 weekly), Manchester (x2 weekly) and Frankfurt (x 2 weekly). This avoids excessive fuel burn due to the shorter sector lengths, and also allows Hawaiian to get some higher-yielding traffic to JFK from Europe. There is already an overnight station at JFK, and the cost of the European overnights wouldn't be huge.

I would have thought that the risks would be relatively low, especially if they codeshared with Virgin, which would catapult Hawaiian's flights into their Virgin Holidays brochures.

The only difference between the West Coast and international A330/A350 fleets would be the removal of three rows of coach for one of lie-flat beds.

LIH Prem

Nice post, DCF.

Not to quibble, but it's easy to fly LHR (or other European gateway cities) to a West Coast gateway, then pick up a 5+ hour flight for the final leg. So the long haul 10+ hour domestic flight can easily be avoided.

So far HA has done well by not putting in the premium seating. (and that's why I tend to avoid them on overseas flights.)

Also the next gen a/c (787 and A350) were supposed to change the economics of those flights, weren't they?

I don't know if they will even try it or not, or if they do if it would be successful or not. We only know that they seem to be doing well at just about every new route they have tried, and they are willing to adjust things as required.

-David

DCF

I do take your points, but I have a few arguments against some of them:

1. Connecting at the West Coast still leaves a pretty long final sector in primitive aircraft conditions that the social demographic from Europe which travels on discretionary high-yield leisure travel simply won't accept.

Backpackers will accept that, but you can't make money on them alone.

But a 50 year old doctor and his lawyer wife from the suburbs of London is used to flying Premium Economy long-haul, and getting a glass of champagne before take-off and included IFE, pillows, blanket, premium drinks. Sitting in domestic Coach on United for 5 hours after having left London 14 hours earlier is a dealbreaker, pure and simple.

Instead of the possibility of a two-centre vacation between Hyatt Regency Waikiki and Hyatt Regency Maui they will just go to Le Meridien in Phuket instead.

2. I'm not arguing that there is a big or significant flat-bed leisure market.

One row for the Ritz-Carlton crew, then three to four rows of Domestic First Class marketed as International Premium Economy, using the same catering and IFE as First Class.

irishguy28

How does the social demographic from the US which travels on discretionary high-yield leisure travel get to Hawai'i then?

DCF

Aha, you have hit on the key issue.

In effect, Americans from west of the Rockies travel to Hawaii, but from east of the Rockies they are far, far more likely to go to the Caribbean or Mexico.

The general consensus is that this is because Americans get far less paid annual leave than other nationalities, so their time is at a premium and they minimise travel times combined with other nationalities. In Europe, by way of contrast, the "Ryanair" demographic may stay within 4 hours of home, but doctors, lawyers, bankers, accountants etc are relatively likely to vacation 7-24 hours' flying time away.

I would add three other factors to this. I am a New Zealander of British origin living in Australia and I own a unit in Hawaii, and I have three less positive takes on this.

Firstly, most Americans are incredibly ignorant about their 50th state. They haven't a clue that there is a Royal history or that it offers anything more than the "big beach on a t*rd of an island" that certain West Indian islands offer. Their own President has to play down his Hawaiian upbringing to get elected, and has to purport to be from Chicago.

Secondly, Americans know that their own domestic airline standards are dire, and they are no more willing to sit in such discomfort for longer than six hours than the rest of us. So West Coasters will holiday in Hawaii. People from the midwest and East Coast basically won't. The numbers from east of the Rockies look deceptively large, but relative to the numbers who go to the Caribbean and Mexico they are miniscule.

Thirdly, most of us are shocked when we first visit the USA by the way anything is marketed by lead-in pricing. Americans are conditioned from birth to seek a bargain and not to pay for what they might get free. So whereas British professionals holidaying in Barbados or Antigua buy Premium Economy or Business Class fares, their American peers buy "Coach" tickets and hope for an upgrade.

All across the US mainland market to Hawaii you see just two classes. There is "Coach with no hot food or baggage included" - HA is a partial exception - or there is "First Class in a big seat with little or no IFE and still virtually no proper catering".

That might be how Thomas Cook Airlines or Thomson sell cheap holidays to the Dominican Republic or Jamaica, but it's not what well-heeled Europeans want, expect or will tolerate.

A resident of Los Angeles may well tolerate five hours in Coach without IFE or food even though they are going to stay at the Ritz-Carlton on Maui.

A well-off English couple who stay in such hotels won't. They will go to Barbados instead, buying a Premium Economy return airfare from BA or Virgin.