Jerseyguy

From what I understand about pre clearance is that the arrival airport must have some minimum amount of customs presence because CBP reserves the right to screen passengers again if they feel its necessary. How much it requires is the question. I know that FBO Ronson Aviation has a customs agent for any of the small corporate jets that arrive.

lowfareair

I wonder if they could get that boost in agents if Frontier offers enough service internationally from TTN? YYZ, BDA, NAS/FPO, YUL, even YHZ as a longshot could all be offered, and if they get the distance to fly to DEN, they could add CUN. All of the airports currently offer US pre-clearance.

rtalk25

About how many more flights can F9 at TTN add?

I wonder if the next markets are ORD (not really new with MDW there, but sure F9 will market it as a new destination) and maybe GSO.

While CLT and RDU are bracketing GSO and one can fly into CLT or RDU and drive places in North Carolina with a rental car, I think service on TTN-GSO could be lured for GSO based pax who would rather not drive 80-100 miles in their car to get to either CLT or RDU just for a low fare flight up to the Mid Atlantic-Northeast.

It might capture the GSO region better with a GSO-TTN, plus F9 already services GSO via GSO-DEN so it has the benefit of getting more usage from the existing station. I'd guess than rather than beefing up TTN-CLT and TTN-RDU, it'd prefer adding TTN-GSO as a new route for a new destination.

Ironically, TTN-GSO was as a route that Eastwind Airlines use to offer.

Jerseyguy

Re: how many more flights
Right now TTN already utilizes both gates various times of the day. Today I believe there were 3 sets (2 flights within 30 minutes) and I'm sure it will become more when the MKE/STL/MSP flights start in a couple of weeks. They have a $900,000 renovation project approved (when it will start is still not known) which rumor has it will add more waiting space in in the gate area that could comfortably allow them to use both gates simultaneously. That addresses the gate area but still needs improvements to the check-in area. There are only 2 manned check-in locations for Frontier. There are about 5-6 kiosks available but that isn't a bag drop area and the area is crowded as it is.

Parking is ok for now they have approximately 1800 spaces available (1150 in the main lot and 650 in the remote lot). That should be plenty for their 10-11 flights a day they will be operating in 2 weeks. Probably 2-3 more flights a day could be added before they have to find another lot

So hopefully if they do the renovations right and find more space for both the check-in and the gate area, I'd say a total of 2-3 daily flights which could easily be 3-4 destinations.

This is of course could be stopped by a lawsuit from the local NIMBYs asking for an injunction on expansion until an EIS is completed (probably take a minimum of 2 years). That I believe would create a pseudo slot system where new destinations could be announced but at the expense of current frequencies.

davywavy

I imagine GSO may be on the list for potential service, but the one that intrigues me is ORD.

I can think of several reasons why Frontier started IAD-ORD instead of IAD-MDW, but the question is - what happens to ORD beyond this?

TTN-MDW may be at the point when, next spring, it can assimilate another two or three frequencies, but is there any value in having TTN-ORD as well as TTN-MDW?

I could see CLE-ORD, to avoid a direct challenge to Southwest's CLE-MDW, but I wonder how far they'll take it because DEN-ORD would be an overlay of Spirit.

rtalk25

CLE-ORD might be a good route.

However there are a few caveats:
There is MegaBus between Cleveland-Chicago. It's also a straight drive (no curvy roads or mountains like Pittsburgh eastbound), albeit CLE to Chicago is very boring driving through western OH and Indiana.

Also, Southwest does match ORD fares or UA and AA match Southwest's MDW fares on routes. Atleast it's so with PHL-MDW and PHL-ORD. Southwest does match Spirit to an extent on LGA-MDW competing on LGA-ORD (Spirit). Southwest will have some discounted advance purchase WGAs like $125 one-way fares.

However, I think Frontier can shine given that it has popularity with CLE based pax, and that Southwest's short window fares are high. e.g. For Friday June 13, Southwest is selling CLE-MDW one-way WGA for $202. If Frontier offered low fares on CLE-ORD, people from Pittsburgh and Youngstown would drive to CLE, I'd bet. It'd also be good if Frontier considered CLE-MKE.

Between ORD and MDW, there are more hotel rooms with airport shuttle out of ORD than MDW. I was looking at MDT-MDW. The fares are low - I don't think it's performing as hot, but for a pax, it's great that I can fly on a Friday/Saturday-Monday for $130 r/t all in (before bags) with just two weeks advance purchase. I would have to get to Harrisburg the night before and stay at a hotel there, but it still comes out inexpensive all in.

However, the hotels in the Loop are all $200/night and decent MDW hotels (with shuttle) are on the high side now that it's peak Chicago season. ORD still has hotels (decent ones) where rooms are about $100-125/night around the summer weekends. However, the MDW-MDT return is scheduled early in the morning so it's difficult flying out of MDW if one is staying at an ORD hotel. During the winter and even up to March/April, the same Loop hotel rooms are sometimes below $100/night, so then it's less a problem where it's easy to stay in the Loop and fly in/out of MDW.

Also, ORD has the benefit of being closer to some suburban areas in Chicagoland over MDW. That might be good for those VFR and if relatives prefer picking one up at ORD or to attract those who live by ORD.

Regarding TTN-ORD, I don't know but Frontier does like to market new cities/routes (to keep existing F9 pax interested in F9 or TTN), so maybe it'll advertise access to a new airport even though it's just Chicago but another airport, just for more differentiation if that has value.

knope2001

So we're just under a week out on the launch of Trenton to MSP, MKE and STL, plus a few weeks into the new Trenton-IND and BNA service. Curious to see how these new routes were shaping up I've been watching both seat maps and fares for a few weeks for June/July/August. Last night with a bunch of time on my hands I looked up all flights to/from TTN-MSP/MKE/STL from next week's launch date (6/13 or 6/14) through 8/1. And I did the same for TTN-IND/BNA for some comparison.

Before I post any information it's important to take a step back and recognize the information for what it is.

First of all seat maps are always mushy as an indicator of booking, and that's especially true for an airline like Frontier where some bookings don't get an advance seat assignment. It's a faulty conclusion to see a flight with 40 seats chosen and assume it is booked to 40, both because some seats always show blocked on inquiry (F9 last row, for example) and some passengers are booked without seat assignments. But it's not totally worthless. A flight with 105 seats chosen is probably not 3/4 empty. A flight with 15 seats chosen is probably booked fuller than that, but it seems unlikely it is very full. Any particular flight could have something odd going on -- maybe that flight with only 15 seats chosen has a school trip of 90 booked but they are getting assignments at check in. But the more flights you look at the more you can see patterns, what seems typical, and doesn't.

When it comes to looking at fare data, again it's only an indicator of what might be going on, not solid factual data on what people already booked have paid. Yet it gives us some idea of what they think the market can support.

Although these are both decidedly fuzzy indicators, what makes them a notch more interesting is pulling data among relatively similar markets over several weeks. Seeing an average of 50 seats reserved on flights for market A doesn't really suggest to us if that flight will ultimately have 60 onboard or 130 onboard. But if we see market A booked to an average of 50 but the other four peers are booked on average to 90 we have an idea of how A is doing in comparison.

The markets are fairly close in distance, with MSP being a solid notch longer. Nashville and Indianapolis have the advantage of a head start, launching about six weeks before the others.

610 IND
701 MKE
706 BNA
835 STL
990 MSP

So here's what I find for the three new markets starting 6/13 or 6/14 through 8/1, plus IND and BNA for the same period.

Average seats reserved per flight (excluding the 6 which always show blocked)
74.6 msp
66.0 bna
62.5 mke
54.5 ind
53.8 stl

Average lowest available fare
179 msp
92 mke
91 ind
78 bna
68 stl

Percent of all flights with only "high" fares left ($130 or up for MSP, $100 or up for the others)
high fares
70.7% msp
27.5% ind
23.8% mke
17.9% bna
02.3% stl

Seems MSP is a real standout among the peers at this point. It will be interesting to see the real stats for loads and a bit later fares for these new routes.

davywavy

I'm a bit surprised - startled - that anyone would try to draw detailed conclusions from the online seat maps, which are notoriously "mushy." Frontier often fudges them to put the competition off the scent and not all third party bookings are shown.

It's particularly tricky with the fares on new routes out of TTN which is a relatively unknown airport. Frontier often keeps the fares low, even on some well-booked flights, to persuade people that the airport even has service, as happened with TTN-MDW a year ago.

Oh, well - each to their own, I guess.

rtalk25

Of all the new routes, I do hope TTN-MSP does last. Using summer time performance to predict year-round performance however is tough because demand is higher than usual in summer, but Frontier launched these routes in the summer.

However, it is longer than the others, and Minneapolis is a large top 15 market region, home to many businesses and wealthy people in Minnesota, so there should be demand from both sides especially if TTN is a low fare gateway to both Philadelphia and New York regions.

WN has no nonstop from BWI and doesn't price PHL one-stops low either. US and the legacies charge a premium to MSP so relative fares have been high to MSP. I don't think there is any nonstop LCC service to either PHL or EWR airports. Frontier did give 4x weekly which is a good start.

I wondered why Minneapolis based Sun Country had BOS, JFK and DCA but ignored Philly-NJ from it's major market include list (maybe it could use ACY if not wanting to get a US response from PHL), although it does not have ATL or Houston either as far as major markets ex MSP.

It's good that Frontier jumped in via TTN as the low fare provider between the markets.

davywavy

Based solely on the online seat maps (yikes - I know) even now, three months out, you can probably say that IAD-MSP will do well, and that doesn't start until the end of summer. MSP has always been good for Frontier, but I've no idea how it will actually pan out.

Jerseyguy

I think it has to do with wanting to know how service is doing, so you start trying to figure out the system or even get a sense of it. In an earlier post in this thread someone compared us to groupies. Sometimes I feel like that guy in the Crestor clorestrol drug commerical where hes treating a prescription drug as if it was a sports team and celebrating studies that indicate the drug works well. Yeah TTN.

EricR111

I've still wondered about the choice of some of these latest cities for TTN. MSP seems OK for the summer, but who the $%#! is going to fly there in winter? Penguins?

Look, the flights to sun destinations are generally doing the best. Instead of adding more destinations, F9 should have added more flights to Florida - I can't believe that they could not fill 5-6 flights/week to FLL instead of 3, for example, or perhaps add PBI (and even Nassau, Bahamas) as a destination.

And I still don't understand why they did not at least have seasonal service to MYR. I bet if you polled people in TTN's catchment area what city within 1000 miles they'd like to see service to that does not already have it, Myrtle Beach (or maybe Boston) would come out on top.

lowfareair

MYR has long-entrenched competition from Spirit out of both ACY and PHL.

Booked in advance, BOS is usually $59 each way flying from PHL, EWR, and Amtrak. Megabus/BoltBus is $25-$40. Frontier would need to match fares and still wouldn't offer a convenience factor except to those closer to TTN than the Trenton or Hamilton train stations.

Jerseyguy

Holy crap, Jetblue's entrance into the PHL-BOS and EWR-BOS markets have really lowered fares including as you point out via Amtrak. PHL-BOS is $57 including 1 checked bag on B6.

EricR111

I've taken Amtrak to Boston.

Walking would have been faster.