Frontier Launches Service from TTN to 3 New Airports
Apr 21, 2014, 2:53 pm
#106
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,120
I noticed on some days, still $38 fares on TTN-IND vs. over $100 fares on TTN-MDW.
May 1
TTN-MDW now selling for $162.09 (681 miles)
TTN-IND now selling for $38.10 (607 miles)
While TTN-IND is still new, Frontier has promoted it enough already and I doubt Frontier will nurture it endlessly. After the peak summer season, it might be problematic.
I think an increase of TTN-FLL and TTN-MCO will be likely by winter, TPA and RSW remain, and maybe even launch of PBI, while key markets like MDW, ATL, DTW, RDU remain of course. I don't know enough about CLT and CVG performance but they seem strategic to keep, but some of the longer distance Midwest cities would need pax buying tickets until the low fare buckets go away, and pax buying at higher fares.
Outside of TTN realm, I think there is good case for even PBI-MDW along with UST-MDW. Southwest doesn't operate nonstop between PBI-MDW (even during the winter) and AA's flight on PBI-ORD is generally priced high. Southwest pretty much ran high fares from MDW-FLL and MDW-PBI as well, even though Spirit was sort of competing out of ORD.
The September/October schedule should be interesting. I think Frontier is very prudent to publish schedules not going too far out. Frontier's schedule only goes to September, while Southwest, JetBlue and the legacies go 2-3 months out further.
Last edited by rtalk25; Apr 21, 2014 at 3:08 pm
Apr 21, 2014, 3:23 pm
#107
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: CLE,OH
Programs: UA 1K 3MM, AA Plat, F9 Elite, the later two thanks to Jeff $, HHdia, Mgold, WynDia, Choicepl, IHGDia
Posts: 1,405
There's an article from Press of AC:
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/c...a4bcf887a.html
The Casino Reinvestment Development Authority would “buy” a certain number of unfilled seats on each flight for a certain period of time.
Maybe F9 could operate a few flights into/out of ACY to complement TTN and ILG and have the fallback of subsidy assistance if it's underperforming. This doesn't appear to be route or carrier specific, so it would offer Frontier flexibility to have 3-6x weekly, which fits Frontier better, instead of dedicated daily service.
I'd think PIT, CLE and UST (Florida entry) would be ideal, with PIT and CLE designed for pax that commute from NJ to these short-haul markets (but long enough of drive), perhaps moving CLE-TTN to CLE-ACY, and adding PIT with this as well.
Since at some point, TTN will be maxed out, it'd make sense to dedicate TTN to the slightly longer stage, destinational and profitable flights including MDW, ATL, DTW and MCO and non destinational, experimental, but over 500 mile distance smaller Midwest markets like STL, MKE and MSP if these prove possible past the summer season.
For ILG, it could open up DFW, IAH which are even longer since the runway is longer, but dedicate up to 5x weekly for both to attract more business pax. This would steal some pax from AA out of PHL. The Avis car rental at ILG does cater to the Frontier inbound and outbound flights, so one can rent a car from ILG (if coming up from DFW or IAH) and get easily to most of the western or eastern side of the PHL market. Most businesses are west of PHL and ILG is within one hour from points like King of Prussia, PA. Plus, the pax will be in the area to swing by the local Christiana area to buy something they need tax free.
Southwest is ending PHL-FLL and PHL-RSW is unknown. It has 4x daily on PHL-MCO and 1x on PHL-TPA in October. I think the 4x daily on PHL-MCO is decent but Southwest is susceptible that if Frontier adds more out of TTN especially and ILG as well, it could see even more of it's pax flee to TTN (and maybe ILG). In the cold winter, pax prefer short walk from car to gate ability without waiting for shuttles.
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/c...a4bcf887a.html
The Casino Reinvestment Development Authority would “buy” a certain number of unfilled seats on each flight for a certain period of time.
Maybe F9 could operate a few flights into/out of ACY to complement TTN and ILG and have the fallback of subsidy assistance if it's underperforming. This doesn't appear to be route or carrier specific, so it would offer Frontier flexibility to have 3-6x weekly, which fits Frontier better, instead of dedicated daily service.
I'd think PIT, CLE and UST (Florida entry) would be ideal, with PIT and CLE designed for pax that commute from NJ to these short-haul markets (but long enough of drive), perhaps moving CLE-TTN to CLE-ACY, and adding PIT with this as well.
Since at some point, TTN will be maxed out, it'd make sense to dedicate TTN to the slightly longer stage, destinational and profitable flights including MDW, ATL, DTW and MCO and non destinational, experimental, but over 500 mile distance smaller Midwest markets like STL, MKE and MSP if these prove possible past the summer season.
For ILG, it could open up DFW, IAH which are even longer since the runway is longer, but dedicate up to 5x weekly for both to attract more business pax. This would steal some pax from AA out of PHL. The Avis car rental at ILG does cater to the Frontier inbound and outbound flights, so one can rent a car from ILG (if coming up from DFW or IAH) and get easily to most of the western or eastern side of the PHL market. Most businesses are west of PHL and ILG is within one hour from points like King of Prussia, PA. Plus, the pax will be in the area to swing by the local Christiana area to buy something they need tax free.
Southwest is ending PHL-FLL and PHL-RSW is unknown. It has 4x daily on PHL-MCO and 1x on PHL-TPA in October. I think the 4x daily on PHL-MCO is decent but Southwest is susceptible that if Frontier adds more out of TTN especially and ILG as well, it could see even more of it's pax flee to TTN (and maybe ILG). In the cold winter, pax prefer short walk from car to gate ability without waiting for shuttles.
CO did CLE ACY loads were awful. Granted fares were awful also. CLE TTN is doing pretty well load wise.
Apr 21, 2014, 4:59 pm
#108
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: new zealand
Posts: 530
I'd have to guess that these routes would have to perform phenomenally by July and August in order for them to continue past the summer.
I noticed on some days, still $38 fares on TTN-IND vs. over $100 fares on TTN-MDW.
May 1
TTN-MDW now selling for $162.09 (681 miles)
TTN-IND now selling for $38.10 (607 miles)
While TTN-IND is still new, Frontier has promoted it enough already and I doubt Frontier will nurture it endlessly. After the peak summer season, it might be problematic.
I noticed on some days, still $38 fares on TTN-IND vs. over $100 fares on TTN-MDW.
May 1
TTN-MDW now selling for $162.09 (681 miles)
TTN-IND now selling for $38.10 (607 miles)
While TTN-IND is still new, Frontier has promoted it enough already and I doubt Frontier will nurture it endlessly. After the peak summer season, it might be problematic.
It appears to be true of al the non-Florida cities. ATL was good from the git-go (at 4 x weekly) but not at the fares we're seeing now. RDU was originally announced as 6 x weekly and they cut it back to 5 x weekly to give mid-week time to build.
I guess it is the ever-present problem at TTN - that people are unaware of the airport, or that it has airline service.
CLT may be another ATL, but it started in deep mid-winter and initially had some lower load (midweek) days, same with CVG - Monday/Friday good, but Wednesday has taken a while to catch up.
Florida may be the exception to all of the above and UST appears to be - so far - in the same Florida pattern, presently the first week appears to be booked to similar levels as TPA and RSW. The returns may be a tad lower, because (a) it is a tiny local market and (b) incoming TTN traffic won't start to go back for a week or two.
I find it all fascinating because it isn't often I get the chance to watch an airline/airport build from nothing and it has only been eighteen months since those first 2 x weekly flights to MCO.
So I find it difficult to guess the future. I do agree with with you about PBI (and I'm still hoping for NAS) but perhaps UST is the one that intrigues me most - a not-well-known airport to a virtually unknown airport.
Ever optimistic, I sure hope that we'll see more at UST - MDW or CLE or ALT or CLT? - but I'm not yet sure of its seasonality.
Apr 22, 2014, 3:38 am
#109
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 138
Outside of TTN realm, I think there is good case for even PBI-MDW along with UST-MDW. Southwest doesn't operate nonstop between PBI-MDW (even during the winter) and AA's flight on PBI-ORD is generally priced high. Southwest pretty much ran high fares from MDW-FLL and MDW-PBI as well, even though Spirit was sort of competing out of ORD.
The September/October schedule should be interesting. I think Frontier is very prudent to publish schedules not going too far out. Frontier's schedule only goes to September, while Southwest, JetBlue and the legacies go 2-3 months out further.
The September/October schedule should be interesting. I think Frontier is very prudent to publish schedules not going too far out. Frontier's schedule only goes to September, while Southwest, JetBlue and the legacies go 2-3 months out further.
Apr 22, 2014, 8:45 am
#110
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,120
I think Frontier adjusted the flight departure time. Can anyone confirm?
I think last time I checked, Frontier was charging very high for ILG-DEN-west on days that it was being sold.
In late August when the flight is moved back earlier, prices appears more in line for ILG-DEN-west.
More ILG-Florida, including ILG-FLL addition, is a possibility. Right now, USAirways is charging $135 on PHL-FLL after Southwest ends it, and there are some $113 PHL-MIA flights.
If it creeps up where US/AA charges too much to like DTW-So. Florida prices that Delta gets away with, I'd expect more competitors including Frontier from ILG-FLL. Delta charges like over $250 one-way on it's DTW-FLL route and DTW-MIA, even though Spirit is on the route. I suppose the Delta-Spirit symbiosis in DTW is far different than when US and Southwest were aggressively competing for similar type pax in PHL.
I am surprised though on the frequency that Southwest has on BWI-FLL even during the slow season of October. It's at 10 daily departures, exceeding their capacity on BWI-MCO and BWI-TPA each. Southwest is clearly trying to protect that route from Spirit, but as a side effect, some Delaware Valley pax in the southern part of the market and Central PA pax might be heading to BWI, which might dampen prospects for Frontier being noticed on more ILG-FLL.
I'd like to see ILG-Texas. I think ILG-DFW and restoration of ILG-IAH but done differently, like 5x daily and with a morning flight every weekday, would find a nice niche in the Philly market. Ideal for self employed, consultants, and small business travelers, VFR pax from the Philly region (and DFW and IAH) to these major economic and populous markets, looking for a better deal than AA's monopoly pricing and Spirit's very limited 1x daily small cramped seat flight.
A roundtrip fare on AA or US now is no less than about $428 on PHL-DFW and $856 on PHL-IAH on UA. I think Frontier could price at $120 one-way and $240 r/t would be a huge bargain even if about $100, thus $340, is used on a hotel at a Christiana hotel to catch the early morning flight.
However, I don't know if Frontier is headed truly in Spirit and Allegiant's direction as leisure only, or if it wants to be decent and reasonable enough for some business pax as well. I think TTN-RDU and these other cities makes it appear that it's working for not only leisure.
Last edited by rtalk25; Apr 22, 2014 at 9:44 am
Apr 22, 2014, 11:10 am
#111
Join Date: May 2004
Location: HYI/AUS/SAT originally TTN/EWR/PHL
Programs: Southwest Rapid Rewards, Jetblue TrueBlue, American Advantage
Posts: 1,190
Frontier Launches Service from TTN to 3 New Airports
it appears that in order to make the most out of their fleet they are having to do some juggling and creative scheduling. It appears that they decided to make the DEN flights out of ILG, night/redeye flights because that is the only city that can utilize a redeye return because of the time zones that it crosses. However as has been said it gets in too late for connections. I've heard several conflicting stories about Frontier and connections. It seems like they want to move away from them but then Daniel Schurz had said in a quote about why they want to do TTN-DEN that not only does the route allow trips to Denver but allows connections to the west. If they want to utilize their fleet and dont want to do connections then perhaps they need to do a redeye flight to west coast cities such as LA or perhaps SAN (I dont know what the fare is but Id imagine PHL or EWR to SAN is expensive) ILG-LAS competes with spirit which does Redeye PHL-LAS
Apr 22, 2014, 12:09 pm
#112
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,120
Since TTN has a runway issue for long distance take off, would it be possible to do a late evening ILG-LAX with a red-eye return on LAX-TTN? Maybe in the morning it could have a run to BOS or PVD or PIT which would be popular with the commuter crowd around TTN. The return back would return at ILG.
Has any major carrier done that recently, have direct service one way only?
Has any major carrier done that recently, have direct service one way only?
Last edited by rtalk25; Apr 22, 2014 at 12:15 pm
Apr 22, 2014, 3:23 pm
#113
Join Date: May 2004
Location: HYI/AUS/SAT originally TTN/EWR/PHL
Programs: Southwest Rapid Rewards, Jetblue TrueBlue, American Advantage
Posts: 1,190
Since TTN has a runway issue for long distance take off, would it be possible to do a late evening ILG-LAX with a red-eye return on LAX-TTN? Maybe in the morning it could have a run to BOS or PVD or PIT which would be popular with the commuter crowd around TTN. The return back would return at ILG.
Has any major carrier done that recently, have direct service one way only?
Has any major carrier done that recently, have direct service one way only?
Also normal connections return 8/15/14 looks like the redeye is temporary (I would guess due to scheduling)
Apr 25, 2014, 5:39 am
#115
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: new zealand
Posts: 530
It's very early days. I expect that there will be more service to UST, but probably not a long distance route in the first instance. Eventually, if all goes well, I assume there would be a DEN-UST - giving you PHX-DEN-UST - but probably not for a year at least.
UST is a virtually unknown airport (in any commercial airline sense) and while all the signs and omens are good, it still has to prove its appeal.
FYI, here's an article about the preparations:
http://members.jacksonville.com/news...hts-take-may-2
"St. Augustine airport readying for Frontier Airlines flights to take off May 2
In an email sent Wednesday, Frontier spokeswoman Kate O’Malley said the company was satisfied with the customer response so far.
“We are very excited to start service between St. Augustine and Trenton-Mercer Airport in Ewing, N.J.,” she said. “Bookings have been strong, in line with expectations.”
There is one small concern:
"One of the most important tasks for the airport authority to complete is getting the airport “federalized” again. Airport security for commercial flights is done by federal agents, and the St. Augustine airport has to be certified to have passengers screened.
The final approval hasn’t been granted yet, but Wuellner said the process has been moving along well. He expects federalization well before the Frontier flights begin."
There's a week to go - let's hope certification comes through. :-)
UST is a virtually unknown airport (in any commercial airline sense) and while all the signs and omens are good, it still has to prove its appeal.
FYI, here's an article about the preparations:
http://members.jacksonville.com/news...hts-take-may-2
"St. Augustine airport readying for Frontier Airlines flights to take off May 2
In an email sent Wednesday, Frontier spokeswoman Kate O’Malley said the company was satisfied with the customer response so far.
“We are very excited to start service between St. Augustine and Trenton-Mercer Airport in Ewing, N.J.,” she said. “Bookings have been strong, in line with expectations.”
There is one small concern:
"One of the most important tasks for the airport authority to complete is getting the airport “federalized” again. Airport security for commercial flights is done by federal agents, and the St. Augustine airport has to be certified to have passengers screened.
The final approval hasn’t been granted yet, but Wuellner said the process has been moving along well. He expects federalization well before the Frontier flights begin."
There's a week to go - let's hope certification comes through. :-)
May 14, 2014, 7:51 pm
#116
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,120
I was looking at the schedule extension, and there is variation especially towards the end, but for October to November,this is what I was seeing for some of the markets. I didn't list any of the Florida cities which is used for vacations, or MDW or ATL which are near daily.
BNA: Sunday, Monday, Wednesday, Friday
CLE: Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday
CLT: Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday,
CVG: Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday
DTW: Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday
IND: Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday
MKE: Monday, Wednesday, Friday
MSP: Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday
RDU: Sunday, Monday, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday (Thursday resumes Nov.20)
STL: Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday
Most of these have Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday. The Thursday-Sunday pattern is good for weekend trips, and there is that Tuesday flight in there as well if one wants to do Sunday-Tuesday for some reason, maybe good if one just needs to be somewhere like first thing on a Monday morning and be at a place for just one business day.
I wonder if MKE will work on a Monday, Wednesday, Friday schedule. The fares are low but it's early. But, I'd think a Mon-Wed-Fri plane could be used to CLT instead to beef it up to near daily although CLT already has a Fri flight. Maybe the other Fri flight could be used for another MDW (or ORD) as TTN to/from MDW flights are always packed on Fridays.
My thinking is TTN has one too many Midwest non destinational cities connected, and maybe MKE is most extraneous. Along with a weaker schedule than the others, it's only 2 hours by drive from MDW.
CLE, while being a focus, actually has a worse TTN-CLE schedule than when it started with just 2x weekly, even though it's 3x weekly in October. It was a Sunday, Thursday pattern originally, that was better for weekend trips or a trip out to CLE for the work week.
In Fall, it has a Saturday flight and that Saturday flight is in the evening. Who wants to cut their weekend by flying back on Saturday evening. There is no Monday return either. Odd timing IMO.
The ILG-DTW schedule overlapped everyday with the TTN-DTW one with TTN-DTW have service more days, so another reason not surprised to see it go.
BNA: Sunday, Monday, Wednesday, Friday
CLE: Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday
CLT: Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday,
CVG: Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday
DTW: Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday
IND: Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday
MKE: Monday, Wednesday, Friday
MSP: Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday
RDU: Sunday, Monday, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday (Thursday resumes Nov.20)
STL: Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday
Most of these have Sunday, Tuesday, Thursday. The Thursday-Sunday pattern is good for weekend trips, and there is that Tuesday flight in there as well if one wants to do Sunday-Tuesday for some reason, maybe good if one just needs to be somewhere like first thing on a Monday morning and be at a place for just one business day.
I wonder if MKE will work on a Monday, Wednesday, Friday schedule. The fares are low but it's early. But, I'd think a Mon-Wed-Fri plane could be used to CLT instead to beef it up to near daily although CLT already has a Fri flight. Maybe the other Fri flight could be used for another MDW (or ORD) as TTN to/from MDW flights are always packed on Fridays.
My thinking is TTN has one too many Midwest non destinational cities connected, and maybe MKE is most extraneous. Along with a weaker schedule than the others, it's only 2 hours by drive from MDW.
CLE, while being a focus, actually has a worse TTN-CLE schedule than when it started with just 2x weekly, even though it's 3x weekly in October. It was a Sunday, Thursday pattern originally, that was better for weekend trips or a trip out to CLE for the work week.
In Fall, it has a Saturday flight and that Saturday flight is in the evening. Who wants to cut their weekend by flying back on Saturday evening. There is no Monday return either. Odd timing IMO.
The ILG-DTW schedule overlapped everyday with the TTN-DTW one with TTN-DTW have service more days, so another reason not surprised to see it go.
Last edited by rtalk25; May 14, 2014 at 8:34 pm
May 15, 2014, 6:29 am
#117
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 2,508
Noticed some post-Thanksgiving reductions by F9, most of which I’m assuming are seasonal:
TTN-IND 3x to 2x
TTN-MDW 7x to 4x
TTN-DTW 5x to 3x
TTN-MKE 3x to 2x
TTN-MSP 4x to 3x
TTN-BNA 4x to 3x
TTN-RDU grows 5x to 6x
They did say earlier this year that they were “considering additional leisure destinations [this] winter”, this would imply that we’ll see some announcements in July–August as these net reductions should allow for 2 new winter destinations at 3-4x weekly. If someone was up for mapping out the times the aircraft are sitting in Trenton that first week of December, you can probably start guessing based on those sitting for 5-6 hours at a time.
TTN-IND 3x to 2x
TTN-MDW 7x to 4x
TTN-DTW 5x to 3x
TTN-MKE 3x to 2x
TTN-MSP 4x to 3x
TTN-BNA 4x to 3x
TTN-RDU grows 5x to 6x
They did say earlier this year that they were “considering additional leisure destinations [this] winter”, this would imply that we’ll see some announcements in July–August as these net reductions should allow for 2 new winter destinations at 3-4x weekly. If someone was up for mapping out the times the aircraft are sitting in Trenton that first week of December, you can probably start guessing based on those sitting for 5-6 hours at a time.
May 15, 2014, 7:08 am
#118
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,120
Now that ORD is used for domestic (IAD-ORD) within the F9 network, I wonder if TTN-MKE will get replaced with TTN-ORD down the road. Even if there is a TTN-MDW flight there as well, and TTN-ORD flight that replaces TTN-MKE and it leaves around the same time as MDW, it could be a way of capturing some from Chicago who live closer to ORD or need to arrive closer to there, while still offer capacity to Chicago in general. Chicago flights typically do well especially on Thursday-Friday-Saturday-Sunday and will probably do much better compared to MKE.
Many MKE pax are already used to using ORD.
Many MKE pax are already used to using ORD.
Last edited by rtalk25; May 15, 2014 at 7:13 am
May 16, 2014, 8:16 am
#119
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 138
Noticed some post-Thanksgiving reductions by F9, most of which I’m assuming are seasonal:
TTN-IND 3x to 2x
TTN-MDW 7x to 4x
TTN-DTW 5x to 3x
TTN-MKE 3x to 2x
TTN-MSP 4x to 3x
TTN-BNA 4x to 3x
TTN-RDU grows 5x to 6x
They did say earlier this year that they were “considering additional leisure destinations [this] winter”, this would imply that we’ll see some announcements in July–August as these net reductions should allow for 2 new winter destinations at 3-4x weekly. If someone was up for mapping out the times the aircraft are sitting in Trenton that first week of December, you can probably start guessing based on those sitting for 5-6 hours at a time.
TTN-IND 3x to 2x
TTN-MDW 7x to 4x
TTN-DTW 5x to 3x
TTN-MKE 3x to 2x
TTN-MSP 4x to 3x
TTN-BNA 4x to 3x
TTN-RDU grows 5x to 6x
They did say earlier this year that they were “considering additional leisure destinations [this] winter”, this would imply that we’ll see some announcements in July–August as these net reductions should allow for 2 new winter destinations at 3-4x weekly. If someone was up for mapping out the times the aircraft are sitting in Trenton that first week of December, you can probably start guessing based on those sitting for 5-6 hours at a time.
My gut feel will be going to 5-6x/week in FLL (up from 4x), 9x/week to MCO (up from 8x), and 5x/week to TPA (up from 4x), maybe an additional flight to RSW. I don't see them adding PBI, and even though Nassau has pre-clearance, my understanding is that there are other issues involved in an international flight for which TTN is not presently equipped.
And, after all this posting, I will finally get to experience the F9-TTN service - this July, down to Florida - Classic Plus.
May 16, 2014, 9:24 am
#120
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,120
The other option is if it adds some TTN-ORD in the mix. I question TTN-MKE but TTN-ORD might fill the role better in the winter and going forward especially as some from the suburbs of Chicago and Wisconsin pax don't like to trek to MDW.
Most likely it ramps up on Florida and maybe TTN-FLL. Southwest is out of the mix in PHL, and it's possible that US/AA might start overcharging but I can't see them too much since doing so only opens the avenue for JetBlue to add PHL-FLL.
I remember going on a Southwest PHL-FLL flight that was 30% full but it was during a mild winter. I used points, but the fares were just ok. Southwest didn't offer any ultra low fares to fill seats stimulate demand likely because of US being able to outmatch them at PHL. At TTN, F9 might have it's own niche with a lot of Northern-Central NJ customers as well.
Last edited by rtalk25; May 16, 2014 at 9:32 am