Bloggers posting wrong and misleading advice
Aug 25, 2014 | 7:23 pm
#106
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http://www.dansdeals.com/archives/50288
http://www.dansdeals.com/archives/50351
Aug 25, 2014 | 7:34 pm
#107
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 832
I suspect the rumors of an impending BA devaluation would not have been so widely circulated if not for the airlines' own past actions.
Aug 25, 2014 | 8:48 pm
#108
Join Date: May 2009
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No parroting from me in posts from this morning and afternoon:
http://www.dansdeals.com/archives/50288
http://www.dansdeals.com/archives/50351
http://www.dansdeals.com/archives/50288
http://www.dansdeals.com/archives/50351
But they did have a reason: quite a few airlines have developed a bad habit of making big negative changes to their programs with little or no advance warning. The results is what we saw during the last 24 hours: a frequent flyer community that panics at the slightest hint a major devaluation may be coming.
I suspect the rumors of an impending BA devaluation would not have been so widely circulated if not for the airlines' own past actions.
I suspect the rumors of an impending BA devaluation would not have been so widely circulated if not for the airlines' own past actions.
Aug 26, 2014 | 4:06 am
#109
Join Date: Aug 2010
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I don't think we get to call his musings on Avios misleading. He was very upfront that he had no idea what he was talking about and that he was engaging in pure speculation. Perhaps, like when he 'still trusted' AA he was trying to goad them into not changing anything using reverse-psychology or something.
As one commenter succinctly put it:
"voice of reason said,
So one long flowery post to just say you have no clue?"
With all of those warnings that he was merely speculating and that he had no real information to base his speculation on, it's tough to say he was being misleading.
And it's hard to be surprised that his speculation was dead wrong...especially when BA tweeted that they are not devaluing (although VFTW termed that Tweet 'a non-denial denial.')
So wrong, yes. Misleading, no.
Sometimes even come hither bloggers get it wrong. And when they do, thank goodness FlyerTalk is here to correct them: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/23422126-post117.html
^
And, at the end of the day VFTW likely got a surge in clicks just in time for the end of the month. And that's what REALLY matters, innit?
As one commenter succinctly put it:
"voice of reason said,
So one long flowery post to just say you have no clue?"
With all of those warnings that he was merely speculating and that he had no real information to base his speculation on, it's tough to say he was being misleading.
And it's hard to be surprised that his speculation was dead wrong...especially when BA tweeted that they are not devaluing (although VFTW termed that Tweet 'a non-denial denial.')
So wrong, yes. Misleading, no.
Sometimes even come hither bloggers get it wrong. And when they do, thank goodness FlyerTalk is here to correct them: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/23422126-post117.html
^
And, at the end of the day VFTW likely got a surge in clicks just in time for the end of the month. And that's what REALLY matters, innit?
In addition, he doesn't hide his light under a bushel basket ("hey, see me on ABC," "I coined the term SkyPesos," "Chris Elliott is an idiot," "that magazine is wrong in their rankings of airline FF programs," "Hyatt is THE most valuable hotel program--no matter what," or "the bumbling, incompetent, venal government is holding Uber down AGAIN"). His speculation was unnecessary and badly thought through--he could have reported the rumor, said that nothing was certain but that he'd do more research, and promised to report back with further and more accurate information. And it really had to gall him that the eventually accurate information broke not on MP, his little baby, but on FT from BA folks who know their stuff.
Gary's BS detector was actually on--"The award chart has gotten astronomically expensive for short distance flying so expensive I almost questioned whether it was a mistake"--but he didn't listen or listened selectively. He even bragged about his contacts with certain airlines--while acknowledging he doesn't have those contacts with BA--but it never seemed to occur to him to use his contacts at AA to see if he could confirm the changes. Given that BA and AA work pretty closely together, that seems a possible and reasonable approach. And, of course, because MP has never really reached a point where it has developed into something much different from FT with its own flavor, there were no BA experts at MP he could contact to get information.
But that approach would have required actual work. Instead, we get this:
Of course, it makes no sense for Iberia to have this chart and not British Airways. Otherwise, you just transfer your Iberia points over to British Airways Avios and redeem on partners from there. In order to effectively charge so much for partners, youd expect that both programs would have to more or less move in tandem.
As I said in my previous post, Gary's now most valuable to me when I'm reading information gleaned from one of his airline contacts (with my BS detector turned on high to make sure the wool isn't being pulled over his eyes), or occasionally when he's pushing a credit card (with my BS detector set to maximum gain). I no longer think much of his blog otherwise.
Aug 26, 2014 | 8:00 am
#110
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And lots of people whose first impression of VFTW is that he has no idea of what he's talking about. Sorry, I can't dismiss his screwup on this. Gary's an adult who holds and has held jobs in the real world (unlike Lucky and MMS) so I hold him to a pretty high bar on accuracy since he should understand the values of research and reasoned analysis unlike some kid who just posts whatever he can find so that he can pay the bills and fund his travels through his credit card links.
In addition, he doesn't hide his light under a bushel basket ("hey, see me on ABC," "I coined the term SkyPesos," "Chris Elliott is an idiot," "that magazine is wrong in their rankings of airline FF programs," "Hyatt is THE most valuable hotel program--no matter what," or "the bumbling, incompetent, venal government is holding Uber down AGAIN"). His speculation was unnecessary and badly thought through--he could have reported the rumor, said that nothing was certain but that he'd do more research, and promised to report back with further and more accurate information. And it really had to gall him that the eventually accurate information broke not on MP, his little baby, but on FT from BA folks who know their stuff.
Gary's BS detector was actually on--"The award chart has gotten astronomically expensive for short distance flying so expensive I almost questioned whether it was a mistake"--but he didn't listen or listened selectively. He even bragged about his contacts with certain airlines--while acknowledging he doesn't have those contacts with BA--but it never seemed to occur to him to use his contacts at AA to see if he could confirm the changes. Given that BA and AA work pretty closely together, that seems a possible and reasonable approach. And, of course, because MP has never really reached a point where it has developed into something much different from FT with its own flavor, there were no BA experts at MP he could contact to get information.
But that approach would have required actual work. Instead, we get this:
Of course, it turns out that IB has had these differences for nearly three years, that there hasn't been a stampede of transferring from IB to BA, and that both programs don't move in the lockstep that Gary claims. That kind of analysis I expect from some of the goofballs around FT ("another awful BA devaluation"), but if you're a "go-to" guy with a kind of supposed expertise about travel, the airline and hotel industries, and general economics, you've undermined (again!) your own credibility.
As I said in my previous post, Gary's now most valuable to me when I'm reading information gleaned from one of his airline contacts (with my BS detector turned on high to make sure the wool isn't being pulled over his eyes), or occasionally when he's pushing a credit card (with my BS detector set to maximum gain). I no longer think much of his blog otherwise.
In addition, he doesn't hide his light under a bushel basket ("hey, see me on ABC," "I coined the term SkyPesos," "Chris Elliott is an idiot," "that magazine is wrong in their rankings of airline FF programs," "Hyatt is THE most valuable hotel program--no matter what," or "the bumbling, incompetent, venal government is holding Uber down AGAIN"). His speculation was unnecessary and badly thought through--he could have reported the rumor, said that nothing was certain but that he'd do more research, and promised to report back with further and more accurate information. And it really had to gall him that the eventually accurate information broke not on MP, his little baby, but on FT from BA folks who know their stuff.
Gary's BS detector was actually on--"The award chart has gotten astronomically expensive for short distance flying so expensive I almost questioned whether it was a mistake"--but he didn't listen or listened selectively. He even bragged about his contacts with certain airlines--while acknowledging he doesn't have those contacts with BA--but it never seemed to occur to him to use his contacts at AA to see if he could confirm the changes. Given that BA and AA work pretty closely together, that seems a possible and reasonable approach. And, of course, because MP has never really reached a point where it has developed into something much different from FT with its own flavor, there were no BA experts at MP he could contact to get information.
But that approach would have required actual work. Instead, we get this:
Of course, it makes no sense for Iberia to have this chart and not British Airways. Otherwise, you just transfer your Iberia points over to British Airways Avios and redeem on partners from there. In order to effectively charge so much for partners, youd expect that both programs would have to more or less move in tandem.
As I said in my previous post, Gary's now most valuable to me when I'm reading information gleaned from one of his airline contacts (with my BS detector turned on high to make sure the wool isn't being pulled over his eyes), or occasionally when he's pushing a credit card (with my BS detector set to maximum gain). I no longer think much of his blog otherwise.
What was most disappointing to me though (as I have noted) was his response when his speculation was shown to be totally wrong.
Screw ups happen. Character is found in response to them. That means taking responsibility for your mistakes and promising to try harder in the future.
Instead the 'correction' post ends with the ominous: 'Of course there may well be a reason for them to publish the chart now.'
Rule of holes applies.
Alas.
Aug 26, 2014 | 8:02 am
#111
Join Date: Jul 2007
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No parroting from me in posts from this morning and afternoon:
http://www.dansdeals.com/archives/50288
http://www.dansdeals.com/archives/50351
http://www.dansdeals.com/archives/50288
http://www.dansdeals.com/archives/50351
Aug 26, 2014 | 8:04 am
#112
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: DFW
Programs: AA Lifetime Gold, Admirals Club, Global Entry
Posts: 1,156
Iwildernorva: One of the more interesting aspects of all this is how FlyerTalk stacks up against the blogs and, as you point out, this time the folks on the BA forum "who know their stuff" came out way, way ahead. (Ctownflyer's blog got also it right.) So I read the blogs -- or at least the better ones with actual original content as opposed to mostly "me, too" credit-card posts -- mostly for entertainment and I read FlyerTalk mostly for hard-core information. If I actually find a great blog post, I'm surprised and delighted. Plus, some of the worst blogs are entertaining as well, but only in a car-wrecks-are-interesting sort of way.
Aug 26, 2014 | 8:24 am
#113
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: ORF
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Yes, he got it totally wrong and rushed to publish without doing proper research. That cannot be denied.
What was most disappointing to me though (as I have noted) was his response when his speculation was shown to be totally wrong.
Screw ups happen. Character is found in response to them. That means taking responsibility for your mistakes and promising to try harder in the future.
Instead the 'correction' post ends with the ominous: 'Of course there may well be a reason for them to publish the chart now.'
Rule of holes applies.
Alas.
What was most disappointing to me though (as I have noted) was his response when his speculation was shown to be totally wrong.
Screw ups happen. Character is found in response to them. That means taking responsibility for your mistakes and promising to try harder in the future.
Instead the 'correction' post ends with the ominous: 'Of course there may well be a reason for them to publish the chart now.'
Rule of holes applies.
Alas.
Gary's analysis failed to account for three things. First, as previously noted, despite IAG's corporate banner, BA and IB are two different animals (to Willie Walsh's regret). Second, a change to BA's award chart for short-haul redemptions would require decoupling from BA's London calculated redemptions (not impossible to conceive, but a two-step process). Third, BA continues to show interest in expansion in the US market (Austin, Texas started this year and other routes are speculated). That doesn't eliminate the possibility that BA will make changes in the Avios program that will negatively affect Americans--just vastly reduces the likelihood.
Not goofball Internet speculation, but the kind of analysis I expect from a solid travel blog. Just not from VFTW anymore.
Aug 26, 2014 | 8:59 am
#114
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Of course, there'll eventually be a change to BA's award chart, just as there will be to all programs. It's been almost three years since the Avios rollout so changes are probably due. If not now, then by the end of 2015. Those changes are likely to be incremental (6K, 9K instead of 4.5, 7.5, for instance).
Gary's analysis failed to account for three things. First, as previously noted, despite IAG's corporate banner, BA and IB are two different animals (to Willie Walsh's regret). Second, a change to BA's award chart for short-haul redemptions would require decoupling from BA's London calculated redemptions (not impossible to conceive, but a two-step process). Third, BA continues to show interest in expansion in the US market (Austin, Texas started this year and other routes are speculated). That doesn't eliminate the possibility that BA will make changes in the Avios program that will negatively affect Americans--just vastly reduces the likelihood.
Not goofball Internet speculation, but the kind of analysis I expect from a solid travel blog. Just not from VFTW anymore.
Gary's analysis failed to account for three things. First, as previously noted, despite IAG's corporate banner, BA and IB are two different animals (to Willie Walsh's regret). Second, a change to BA's award chart for short-haul redemptions would require decoupling from BA's London calculated redemptions (not impossible to conceive, but a two-step process). Third, BA continues to show interest in expansion in the US market (Austin, Texas started this year and other routes are speculated). That doesn't eliminate the possibility that BA will make changes in the Avios program that will negatively affect Americans--just vastly reduces the likelihood.
Not goofball Internet speculation, but the kind of analysis I expect from a solid travel blog. Just not from VFTW anymore.
Aug 26, 2014 | 9:29 am
#115
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: SEA
Posts: 4,049
Folks, you have this entirely wrong. These aren't journalists. Don't hold them to journalistic standards. As much as a lot of bloggers want you to believe that, because credibility brings eyeballs, they just aren't.
Gary is at best a pundit, at worst, a salesman. Often enough, he's a combination of both. I don't know that he tries to hide that, either. His job isn't to deliver you objective, fact-checked news. It's to deliver his opinion and to get you to sign up for credit cards. I'm not saying that as a negative thing about him, either. That's who he is and what he does for a living.
If you've ever wondered why actual journalists balk at bloggers getting press credentials, this is why.
Gary is at best a pundit, at worst, a salesman. Often enough, he's a combination of both. I don't know that he tries to hide that, either. His job isn't to deliver you objective, fact-checked news. It's to deliver his opinion and to get you to sign up for credit cards. I'm not saying that as a negative thing about him, either. That's who he is and what he does for a living.
If you've ever wondered why actual journalists balk at bloggers getting press credentials, this is why.
Aug 26, 2014 | 9:59 am
#116
Join Date: Feb 2004
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In the first post I broke down the hysterics by showing the numerous difference between IB/BA and that I wouldn't be worried about IB changes meaning anything.
Gary made a comment on that post and then made a post responding to that about how it is very worrying.
And then I saw Google Cache had the same IB award chart in their cache from July and got the PM from travellair confirming that IB pricing has been the same way since Avios launched which of course sealed the deal and I made the second post correcting the situation...
Aug 26, 2014 | 10:05 am
#117
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Fair enough, I definitely wasn't perfect. But at least 12 bloggers made posts about burning BA miles due to an imminent devaluation.
In the first post I broke down the hysterics by showing the numerous difference between IB/BA and that I wouldn't be worried about IB changes meaning anything.
Gary made a comment on that post and then made a post responding to that about how it is very worrying.
And then I saw Google Cache had the same IB award chart in their cache from July and got the PM from travellair confirming that IB pricing has been the same way since Avios launched which of course sealed the deal and I made the second post correcting the situation...
In the first post I broke down the hysterics by showing the numerous difference between IB/BA and that I wouldn't be worried about IB changes meaning anything.
Gary made a comment on that post and then made a post responding to that about how it is very worrying.
And then I saw Google Cache had the same IB award chart in their cache from July and got the PM from travellair confirming that IB pricing has been the same way since Avios launched which of course sealed the deal and I made the second post correcting the situation...
So nice job. ^
Aug 26, 2014 | 10:48 am
#118
Join Date: Jul 2007
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Aug 26, 2014 | 11:57 am
#119
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More excuses explanations as to why VFTW was paranoid about a BA change. And in the comments, a reminder about why he still trusts AA.
Again: rule of holes.
How about:
'Ha, even experts like me get it wrong from time to time. And boy did I about BA Avios redemptions. And it appears I started a bit of a viral panic. My bad! I'll dig deeper next time before I start speculating. Lesson definitely learned and I apologize if I needlessly freaked you out!'
Is that really so freaking hard on the ego?
Again: rule of holes.
How about:
'Ha, even experts like me get it wrong from time to time. And boy did I about BA Avios redemptions. And it appears I started a bit of a viral panic. My bad! I'll dig deeper next time before I start speculating. Lesson definitely learned and I apologize if I needlessly freaked you out!'
Is that really so freaking hard on the ego?
Aug 26, 2014 | 12:07 pm
#120
Join Date: Jul 2007
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Oh, and by the way, he "mistakenly saw possible signs" of a BA devaluation. Not instantly recognisable as humility and definitely several notches quieter than his screaming headline from two days ago ("HOLY SMOKE [...] Iberia Massively Jacks Up Award Rates!").