hayzel7773

iamamadscientist

Whats the benefit of saving money by having less transition costs for a new aircraft type when there is the possibility that you cant fill it?

There a re a lot of things which need to be considered when ordering new aircraft.

bzcat

When there are only 2 choices in the market, you have to consider them both. However unlikely for A35K to get the nod over 779 for BR, it seems silly to not at least have airbus pitch and make a case for it.

I don't think BR is in a hurry to place an order. They have lots of 787-10 still to come and I believe they can also opt to take more 787-9 instead of 787-10 so they can down gauge some routes as the older 77W exit the fleet.

I actually think it is more likely that BR will order 797 before they order 779. BR can certainly use something bigger than A321 but smaller than 787-10.

username

Oh, how can a good Taiwanese bargainer not play 2 competitors against each other even if he/she knows who will be picked already

So, where did things go wrong with the incorrect projection of capacity needs? Was K Chang too ambitious (or, without him, BR could not grow as much)? Is the main problem the delay of transitting Mainland passengers (which neither KMT nor DPP government probably would have gotten)?

hayzel7773

It's the lack of transit pax and also the inability to grow out of TPE anymore. The previous promise of a 2020 Terminal 3 is no longer viable, straining the airports slots and BR's growth. KMT actually could've gotten transit deal; unfortunately, they ran out of time.

krispykrme

krispykrme

hayzel7773

In the next few years, we will begin to see how well EVP Albert Liao of Corporate Planning and President Clay Sun are at their job as BR deals with the influx of planes into their fleet. if their good, the airline will grow significantly while maintaining decent profits. If not, they need to find someone quick.

The Chairman Steve Lin is a very hands off guy and is mainly there as a representative to ensure shareholder and Evergreen group compliance and relations. He isn't even there most of the time.

username

krispykrme

1. CX has already came out and say that Chinese and ME3 are impacting their bottom line

"The airline attributed its performance to a number of adverse factors. A Cathay spokeswoman cited the growth in number of direct flights between mainland China and international destinations, as well as competition from global airlines in the region."

This was part of new article just in late 2017.

2. You do realize one the concession was for Taiwan to accept one china policy with each side have interpretation.

3. Under the previously discussed transit agreement- both side will no longer need check each side document (China will not check Taiwanese citizen card issue by them, and reverse it true). In other words- it became similar to a domestic to domestic transfer. This would means that Taiwanese citizen would not need to apply for China issued Taiwan resident card and can transit through china unchecked.

4. When the transit agreement was proposed- Chinese carriers was going to operate 15 out of 20 flights from 3 cities that will pilot the transit program. Taiwanese carrier was allocated 5.

The proposal was extremely onside.

someone0000

The problem is people also underestimate how much suppliers already know! ;-)

username

This discussion is obviously getting very political and it seems there is the "blame China on everything" attitude.

Some of the old discussions are here: Mainland China Considering Allowing Citizens to Transit Through Taiwan

This was in negotiations before the DPP government took over and the KMT government could not get it done either. Back then, the reports said that it was the Mainland carriers who objected this.

For #2 , many in Taiwan do consider the "one China, self-expression" arrangement THE standing agreement between the two sides since 1992, right? The "concession" is only in the mind of those who do not recognize this agreement, such as the current DPP government and some of their supporters.

Yes, there is a lot of unfair advantages on the Mainland carriers' side. Opening up transit passengers will help CI and BR chip away some of that, right?

I can argue all I want with you but I don't have the numbers CI and BR have. Taiwan's internal market is small. Intra-Asia yields are dropping due to LCCs. They have to rely on transit passengers - that is how they have grown the last 20+ years. With ULH planes and carriers like VN get stronger, CI and BR have to find new passenger / cargo sources.

The fact that BR and CI want this and have planned for this tell you they think it will work for them, right?

username

Of course, a good sales person is always full of hopes and dreams and will play along

krispykrme

username

The discussions are getting very political. I can't change your view and you can't change mine. So, we should just stop here.