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EK's problem is threefold:
1. Their brand and reputation is very closely linked to the A380, phasing the aircraft out will come with some brand damage, question is, how severe, no doubt they can get over it.
2. They have insisted on only ordering new A380s if they get a neo, which Airbus says won't happen. Do they lose face and order the A380 as it is or are they too proud (and EK is an extremely proud airline!)
3. They aren't growing as fast as expected, so do they take the macro gamble on having the demand to fill the future A380s or do they take the more sensible, conservative gamble given the short-term outlook and buy smaller airframes.
A big question is also around how the FZ partnership pans out. If they can offload skinnier routes to FZ they'll have excess 77Ws which can be put on the routes where the A380 is struggling to be filled. The most sensible purchase would be for 737 MAXs or A321s, or even A330neos, but narrowbodies won't happen anytime soon (see earlier point on pride!).
A combo A330neo/A350XWB order with 10 A380s as a consolation prize might be my bet.
EK must be one of the very few major airlines that don't operate narrow bodies. I can only think of EK, CX & SQ (oh & VS). Any others?Originally Posted by skywardhunter
EK are going to leverage Boeings vs Airbus to get the best deal. I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see them still pull an A350 order out of the hat, combined with some discounted A380s.EK's problem is threefold:
1. Their brand and reputation is very closely linked to the A380, phasing the aircraft out will come with some brand damage, question is, how severe, no doubt they can get over it.
2. They have insisted on only ordering new A380s if they get a neo, which Airbus says won't happen. Do they lose face and order the A380 as it is or are they too proud (and EK is an extremely proud airline!)
3. They aren't growing as fast as expected, so do they take the macro gamble on having the demand to fill the future A380s or do they take the more sensible, conservative gamble given the short-term outlook and buy smaller airframes.
A big question is also around how the FZ partnership pans out. If they can offload skinnier routes to FZ they'll have excess 77Ws which can be put on the routes where the A380 is struggling to be filled. The most sensible purchase would be for 737 MAXs or A321s, or even A330neos, but narrowbodies won't happen anytime soon (see earlier point on pride!).
A combo A330neo/A350XWB order with 10 A380s as a consolation prize might be my bet.
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We'll CX operates narrow bodies on their low cost subsidiary Cathay DragonOriginally Posted by Saltire74
EK must be one of the very few major airlines that don't operate narrow bodies. I can only think of EK, CX & SQ (oh & VS). Any others?S
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My hopes and reality sadly I think will not meet.Originally Posted by djsflynn
What do you reckon is going to happen next on the EK 787 front? Best guess?
We all too quickly forget that EK placed an order in 2013 for 150 77X frames, totalling US$76b. I don't have a timescale for that, but that alone renders the 787 obsolete within the fleet for now.
I think that FlyDubai will most likely be consumed by EK in the coming months. It makes excellent operational and financial sense and provides the network expansion that EK want without having to change strategy and buy narrow body aircraft.
Fully expecting the A380 order to go ahead. What becomes of T3 if they don't? What about all of those promises of a seasonal 380 route to outstations? It would be seen as a retreat, and that is one thing EK don't do.
Ambassador: Emirates Airlines
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There are still around 50 A380s to be delivered. OK, some of these will replace older frames, but it's still maybe 40 new aircraft.Originally Posted by sydtogla
Fully expecting the A380 order to go ahead. What becomes of T3 if they don't? What about all of those promises of a seasonal 380 route to outstations? It would be seen as a retreat, and that is one thing EK don't do.
Where will these be deployed? The A380 is already used on some routes where it is too big, and actually gets downsized during quieter months. Maybe consolidate 3 flights using B777 to 2 flights using A380 like at BHX?
Can the growth continue? It already seems to have flattened somewhat, so I'm struggling to see where all these new planes will be deployed.
That said, I'm hoping for an A350 order... having flown the QR model, it's a very nice and quiet plane.
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Where will these be deployed? The A380 is already used on some routes where it is too big, and actually gets downsized during quieter months. Maybe consolidate 3 flights using B777 to 2 flights using A380 like at BHX?
Can the growth continue? It already seems to have flattened somewhat, so I'm struggling to see where all these new planes will be deployed.
That said, I'm hoping for an A350 order... having flown the QR model, it's a very nice and quiet plane.
The issue, as eternaltransit has pointed out a few times, is that the A380 has a lesser cargo capacity than the 77W. I think it's something like 8t vs 22t. This is why for example JNB for the longest time remained at 4x 77W despite A380 capability at the airport and ostensibly sufficient load for an A380 in terms of pax. It's not as simple as looking at how full the pax cabin is.Originally Posted by DYKWIA
There are still around 50 A380s to be delivered. OK, some of these will replace older frames, but it's still maybe 40 new aircraft.Where will these be deployed? The A380 is already used on some routes where it is too big, and actually gets downsized during quieter months. Maybe consolidate 3 flights using B777 to 2 flights using A380 like at BHX?
Can the growth continue? It already seems to have flattened somewhat, so I'm struggling to see where all these new planes will be deployed.
That said, I'm hoping for an A350 order... having flown the QR model, it's a very nice and quiet plane.
Interestingly they fly the A380 to Nice now, which is a tricky airport to approach and depart as it is, and I'd imagine not a super heavy route for the typical EK pax (as I'd imagine most Nice visitors come from Europe or the US, with the rest probably from China and far east which is where EK has a market).
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Interestingly they fly the A380 to Nice now, which is a tricky airport to approach and depart as it is, and I'd imagine not a super heavy route for the typical EK pax (as I'd imagine most Nice visitors come from Europe or the US, with the rest probably from China and far east which is where EK has a market).
I think the very biggest unknowns that will be the deciding factors on whether EK buys more A380s or not are the level of the discount that Airbus will give them, and the lease terms (as EK never fork out their own hard cash for them).Originally Posted by skywardhunter
The issue, as eternaltransit has pointed out a few times, is that the A380 has a lesser cargo capacity than the 77W. I think it's something like 8t vs 22t. This is why for example JNB for the longest time remained at 4x 77W despite A380 capability at the airport and ostensibly sufficient load for an A380 in terms of pax. It's not as simple as looking at how full the pax cabin is.Interestingly they fly the A380 to Nice now, which is a tricky airport to approach and depart as it is, and I'd imagine not a super heavy route for the typical EK pax (as I'd imagine most Nice visitors come from Europe or the US, with the rest probably from China and far east which is where EK has a market).
In terms of the discount, they are already running at 30% off list - so even if they are going to fly without the demand, it may still be worth it, if they can shave off another 25 million USD from the cost. The problem is whether Airbus is going to take a per-unit loss on it in the hope they can pick up A350 business (or even A320 for FZ), from an already loss making program (if we include development costs).
The leasing is going to be the more difficult problem imho - there seems to be little or no secondary market for A380s (even talk of stripping them down for parts), which means more onerous lease terms, both in interest rate and monthly payments, especially in terms of cash outflow.
They may think it's safer to go with a plane that will cost more in the long run but has easier monthly payments (or they can sell options to other airlines).
The last plan was to shift FZ to DWC. Now with this closer tie up the real question is where will they fit all these airfames at DXB if FZ ends up staying? I can't see FZ even sending the overlapping flights to DWC because it still won't work.
DWC should of been expanded, and completed for 120 million pax capacity a long time ago. All there doing is buying time, and trying to make themselves believe in there own delusion.
What's to say no airfames will be ordered at the DAS except military related the way things are panning out in the region??? We still have a long way to go until November, and decisions can be changed at the drop of a hat.
Let's not even get into limitations of only having two runways, and congested airspace.
DWC should of been expanded, and completed for 120 million pax capacity a long time ago. All there doing is buying time, and trying to make themselves believe in there own delusion.
What's to say no airfames will be ordered at the DAS except military related the way things are panning out in the region??? We still have a long way to go until November, and decisions can be changed at the drop of a hat.
Let's not even get into limitations of only having two runways, and congested airspace.
I was speaking to a QF pilot the other week about their commitment to the A380. He told me that whilst QF only have 12 A380s with 2 on order, they are struggling on some routes with (recurring) technical problems on certain frames. Just this week QF2 DXB-SYD had to be flown as EK2666 on EK metal after 2 days of unresolved issues. He says that a lot of his colleagues can't wait to get onto the 787!
On the other hand, the investment by EK in A380 maintenance on the ground is remarkable. I've not heard if they have similar issues with reliability.
On the other hand, the investment by EK in A380 maintenance on the ground is remarkable. I've not heard if they have similar issues with reliability.
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On the other hand, the investment by EK in A380 maintenance on the ground is remarkable. I've not heard if they have similar issues with reliability.
A380s are notorious amongst ground staff for faults!Originally Posted by sydtogla
I was speaking to a QF pilot the other week about their commitment to the A380. He told me that whilst QF only have 12 A380s with 2 on order, they are struggling on some routes with (recurring) technical problems on certain frames. Just this week QF2 DXB-SYD had to be flown as EK2666 on EK metal after 2 days of unresolved issues. He says that a lot of his colleagues can't wait to get onto the 787! On the other hand, the investment by EK in A380 maintenance on the ground is remarkable. I've not heard if they have similar issues with reliability.
I think a big problem is selling used A380's. MH tried it and didn't get a nibble. SQ first A380 is up for sale or lease and nothing has come of it. Granted it is an early heavier model.
http://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press...-a380plus.html
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They do have this though.Originally Posted by skywardhunter
2. They have insisted on only ordering new A380s if they get a neo, which Airbus says won't happen. Do they lose face and order the A380 as it is or are they too proud (and EK is an extremely proud airline!)
http://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press...-a380plus.html
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http://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press...-a380plus.html
Would have been far more efficient to just retrofit the new winglets (if possible). What a cop out!Originally Posted by FN-GM
They do have this though.http://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press...-a380plus.html