Originally Posted by
skywardhunter
The issue, as eternaltransit has pointed out a few times, is that the A380 has a lesser cargo capacity than the 77W. I think it's something like 8t vs 22t. This is why for example JNB for the longest time remained at 4x 77W despite A380 capability at the airport and ostensibly sufficient load for an A380 in terms of pax. It's not as simple as looking at how full the pax cabin is.
Interestingly they fly the A380 to Nice now, which is a tricky airport to approach and depart as it is, and I'd imagine not a super heavy route for the typical EK pax (as I'd imagine most Nice visitors come from Europe or the US, with the rest probably from China and far east which is where EK has a market).
I think the very biggest unknowns that will be the deciding factors on whether EK buys more A380s or not are the level of the discount that Airbus will give them, and the lease terms (as EK never fork out their own hard cash for them).
In terms of the discount, they are already running at 30% off list - so even if they are going to fly without the demand, it may still be worth it, if they can shave off another 25 million USD from the cost. The problem is whether Airbus is going to take a per-unit loss on it in the hope they can pick up A350 business (or even A320 for FZ), from an already loss making program (if we include development costs).
The leasing is going to be the more difficult problem imho - there seems to be little or no secondary market for A380s (even talk of stripping them down for parts), which means more onerous lease terms, both in interest rate and monthly payments, especially in terms of cash outflow.
They may think it's safer to go with a plane that will cost more in the long run but has easier monthly payments (or they can sell options to other airlines).