I think that kind of flyer is the obvious loser - people who have discretion over a small travel budget but when travelling personally, only fly cheap tickets.

The question for EK (which they probably have an answer to), is how much of their revenue come from these types of pax - that is, how many of their HVCs have a real choice in flying them - and whether they are acceptable collateral damage.

Also, their employer/business should be happy now that they are flying on cheaper airlines for each journey instead of making them pay for more expensive tickets just to get status, right :D

As for your personal travel choice - I think that depends on why you are travelling. Just assume there is no such thing as loyalty anymore, so go for what suits your itinerary (whether that's travel time, paid-for product, price, or schedule) and forget about any FFPs. Those days are increasingly over - even the US airlines are finally weaning their FFP members off upgrades.

I don't know, but I assume my friends will have been on a (expensive ex-DXB) "saver" and we can only speculate on the fare class of the upgraded pax.

Yes, I think you are right in your analysis.
Regarding this point it is partially true:
" people who have discretion over a small travel budget but when travelling personally, only fly cheap tickets." Emirates Economy ex-DXB is not really cheap though.
As you say, for sure EK has done the maths and most companies (unlike mine or my friends) have contracts and don't let their employees chose the flights.

Better to look for the best deals and forget about status.
But I still don't understand the maths of it. If for instance everybody will do that : chose the best (cheaper) deal and not the favorite airline (because of status - even-though it may be a bit more expensive), the total airline business will have a decrease in revenues?

The argument from EK (and all airlines to their hub captives) is that when you choose the hub carrier out of the hub, you are paying a premium for a direct flight.

This is less of an argument in DXB given you can drive down to AUH and take EY - but I suspect EY's fares will start to be similar to EK's in due course.

In terms of the sums - don't forget that FFP benefits, like miles and extra baggage, lounge access etc. represents a cost as well. Miles for instance, can be looked at as a kind of commission that the airline has to reserve - which is why they like to maximise breakage (how many of the miles go unredeemed).

If your pax is on a cheap transit ticket with a 15-20 USD margin and you have to pay 40 USD for lounge costs, then what's the point of keeping that pax?

I think EK would like to try and get pax to pay for the benefits out of their fare - i.e. buying a higher class of tkt, or at least try and get people to pay for the higher class by giving them a free taste of it. The thinking going - why should we reward a customer who is costing money?

Of course, the problem is that they have a FFP where some people can get status without contributing enough profit to pay for the perks (i.e. Gold on 5k USD), but can't easily overhaul the programme, so they do what they can.

Unfortunately some bona fide frequent travellers who actively divert spend to EK - which was the original point of the programme - are going to be the cost, if you look at things on a per ticket basis, rather than the relationship profit: perhaps EK will evolve the program to look at how profitable an individual pax is before offering upgrades, now the eligibility for upgrades list is entirely automated!

I'm gonna ignore that little dig ;)

I spend more than that in a year on EK btw, that's just the approximate cost of my usually route's fares to earn 50k tier miles.

I thought you'd notice that :D

Just did quick math, 7x return Y Flex South Africa - India = 51450 miles at an average of ZAR10k/trip = ~US$4850.

Also it seems that this policy is having its toll. At the lounge at HYD now, my booking still shows a Y seat and seat map is full in J so looks like I've been overlooked. Gold on a Flex ticket, not even a saver... :( Sad times indeed.

Whoops, spoke too soon, this is what we all love to see :)

https://s17.postimg.io/6b008wni7/ekupgrade.png

So, data point, with ~15-20 over Gold Flex still can get upgraded on a low-status route. We'll need a new op-up thread to create a new baseline now.

Does this mean an oppup? I've had this lots of times but when I've collected boarding pass it's been the seat I'd chosen when ticket was booked.

Yes as it previously showed my allocated seat and the assignment disappeared after check-in at the airport when I was in the lounge. For me this has been a consistent indicator (and am now sitting in 10E so...)

I think we'll see a lot more op-ups being done closer to departure now - since the new system is pretty automated, a flight controller can leave it all to the last minute as it's all on a screen, instead of checking for families, special requests etc. etc.

Does doing an online check in improve your chances of an operational upgrade?

It has no effect.

It is, based on observations posted here and in the dedicated op-up report thread, as well as confirmed two hours ago by a Skywards agent at the DXB A J Lounge, purely dependent on your are class primarily, and status secondarily.

Anyone dare to hope for an opup on this flight on a Business Flex fare?

F4 A4 J0 C0 I0 O0 P0 Y9 E9 R9 W9 M0 B0 U0 K0 H9 Q0 L0 T0 V0 X0

Any status? Most likely others in J will have status as well on the same flex fare.