Is there a general rule that the email offers at check in are considerably less than weeks/months before?

I have booked
LHR - KIX in F, originally in J (flex) but already upgraded as KIX leg has game changer from 1st April and my fiance has never flown F!
NRT - DXB 6 day layover - LHR in J (flex) - current upgrade to first in manage booking at £2.4k for us both, I am tempted but if check in offer will be considerably less ill wait it out for a 'bargain'. Assume with me already upgrading they will know I am keen?

Cash upgrades in MMB way before the flight are just the fare difference between whatever your fare is and lowest available fare at that moment to the higher class. This is normally more $ than any offer you might get close to the flight BUT 1) you might not get an offer, 2) F might sell out, 3) prices may go up over time for the MMB upgrade due to seats selling, 4) the offer may be higher than today’s price (in a vacuum this isn’t the most realistic scenario). So, it’s a bird in the hand situation / is the price worth it to you / how busy are your specific flights / … Enjoy the flights to KIX…

understood thanks!!

Think I am going to wait it out and see if I get a too good to turn down offer, we already in F on the way out and J is still marvellous!!! thanks for the reply

It's very rare to get email offers for J to F as far as I am aware.

I agree that they are rare, but I got a J to F offer (two actually) last April. Was flying AMS/DXB/JNB. First got one for the first leg and the 'special' offer was more than the cash upgrade cost for the entire trip as per MMB! And then an email offer for DXB/JNB a few days later, same story. They really wanted me to fly F! So be careful with these email offers, they might not be as 'special' as you would like them to be!

Offer with kids
 

Does anybody know if travelling with a child, 3yrs , impacts the chances of an upgrade offer from Y to J?
2 adults and 1 child travelling, normally fly J but can’t justify paying the prices they want at Christmas time, so booked economy instead, flex out and saver back. Lhr-bkk

No one (other than EK) knows, but I doubt child v. adult status matters per se other than the fact that the child needs to stay with an adult (so it requires two available seats for the upgrade as opposed to one). A seat is a seat, a $ is a $. The issue is that in your case you’ll need three available seats for the upgrade. You may want to consider — if this is something you wish to entertain — breaking up the reservation into two: one with one adult and another with one adult and the child.

More importantly, you’re travelling during peak season to a warm destination so you should keep your expectations reasonable both in terms of the odds of not getting any offer and if you did that it won’t be cheap.

I was looking at paid for upgrades the week before this flight, and it was around £2000…

Talking to a couple on the flight, and they’d asked at the airport, and were offered Y-J upgrade for £750 each - which they took.

If there are 2 people on a PNR, can we upgrade just one person?

tks

call in and split the booking

Do Online Upgrade Offers at Check-in get additional Tier miles
 

I booked Business Saver and received an upgrade offer at online check-in to First. Passed because I did not know if this would increase my tier miles (or Skywards miles) earnings as if I were booked in First instead of Business. Would appreciate any guidance. TIA.

Would remain per original fare rules

Thanks THR. Just got confirmation of this as well at the Skywards service desk in DXB.

Is it 72hrs or 48hrs?
 

Does anybody know if the upgrade offer email is usually 72 hours before the flight or 48 hours? Flying LHR > DXB on Tuesday and J currently less than 50% full.

Just got another one of these. Flying J LGW/DXB/CPT next week. “Special” email upgrade offer for LGW/DXB only for ZAR 25347. Via MMB I can upgrade the entire trip for ZAR 22530.
“Special” my foot! Attempt at ‘criminal exploitation’ is more like it (if something like that would exist).
Also strange that I can now upgrade with miles although it’s a Saver (‘O’ bucket) ticket which should only be upgradable after check in opens.