I think the most unjustified changes that were announced concerned the treatment of rollover MQMs.
In the world of rollover that had existed for nearly 15 years, one has been indifferent, once earning the highest status they can, between continuing flying thereafter in one year vs. postponing that travel to the following year.
The MQM to MQD conversion rate nearly eliminates the value of MQMs. If MQMs still existed in 2024, I would start the year ~80% of the way to Platinum. At the announced MQM to MQD conversion rate, I would start the year ~17% of the way.
As a result, had I known these changes would occur, I would have been better off postponing over half my 2023 travel into 2024, and not bothering with over half of my credit card spend.

There are two ways that they could have not destroyed rollover MQMs:
- Announce now that 2024 will operate under the old rules, but no MQM could be rolled over into 2025
- Make the MQM to EQD conversion such that one would earn the same percentage progress towards next year's status requirements via MQDs as they would have under MQMs

I think everyone uses some variation of VALUE when buying tickets....while weightings may vary, VALUE = PRICE + SCHEDULE + SERVICE. (And SERVICE is both actual SERVICE plus PERKS.) For some folks, the SERVICE element goes up by being rarer, but for everyone else, it goes down in value. Which makes PRICE and SCHEDULE more important for those folks. Essentially, Delta just re-weighted everybody's concept of value for them.

So for me, now retired, having the premium branded Delta card made sense, as for only 25k spend, I knew I would be Plat with MQD waiver...but no longer. First thing I did, was downgrade that card to the Blue card. Amex refunded the pro-rated balance of annual fee, and I kept a credit line open with the blue, although that will never be utilized now--I'd rather earn points that hold value more than SkyPesos.

So, with perks out of the way, I will focus on price and schedule. What does that mean? I book trips using Vacations by Marriott. In the past, if Delta wasn't the best priced flight, I'd still fly them anyways because I knew I'd get and earn perks (aka LOYALTY). But now, no longer. Sure, if they are most convenient to a location and price isn't out of whack, they'll still get my business....but if British business to London is 1,000 cheaper, it will be a no brainer to fly British instead.

In effect, it is all transactional now. Kind of the opposite of trying to build loyalty.

DL wants to reduce the amount of "stale" elites in favor of "current" ones. The DM herd is the unrewardable size it is because of rollovers.

We are here because of Covid rollovers and the accelerator. Not the legacy rollovers.

So many people are saying this but DM was not automatic even with rollover except for international members. But US members still had to meet the MQD requirement or meet the $250K MQD waiver. And look at this way: using the formula in the new system, that $250K on a DL Reserve would net 25K MQDs or more than enough MQDs to have qualified for DM. So DMs who were maintaining DM status were still having to spend significantly (either on flights or on a CC) with DL. Sure rollover allowed the lower ranks to swell because rollover adding up and then an MQD waiver at $25K being the same for PM, GM, or FO and plenty of folks floated up to these levels. But DM still took extensive spend to obtain.

The impact of the pandemic era rollovers, credit card bonuses, etc have been well covered (I do think people are underplaying the impact of earning status on award travel). I do think people are ignoring a few things that are leading to higher elite levels relative to Delta's current thresholds

1) Increase in premium leisure travel (people spending more of their money on travel, hybrid work increasing three day weekends, baby boomers retiring on inflated home values, 401Ks, etc)
2) Impact of inflation - the $25K MQD threshold isn't that much anymore for many professionals in the era of $100 a person dinners, high cost of daycare / preschool, whateverver else
3) The increase in signups of both Amex Platinum and Delta Reserve, and people's willingness to pay $500-$800 for a card

Everyone is saying "Delta showed their cards - they want to do XYZ." Well Delta has to devalue, because the current system is probably too easy for many given the current reality

I am surprised Delta didn't wait to see how Diamond shook out with the $20K MQD requirement. But there may be more people who can fly Delta One ($3,000 to $7,000 or more) fares than we think, resulting in a larger DM pool than anticipated. Also I always thought the $250K MQD waiver was crazy, but apparently a lot of business owners are making that spend.

Problem is that Delta is in bed with AmEx, and publicly has revealed how valuable the AmEx remuneration is towards the P&L statement. Delta has created this big problem and there is no easy way out as either way a demographic is going to be upset and loudly complain. If Delta just focused on its core business of flying planes instead of being the Delta Bank of American Express, it wouldn't be in this predicament.

Did AA admit 2 weeks after the loyalty point program announcement last year "No question, we probably went too far"? This is a very greedy and narcissistic CEO, as this was a very aggressive strategy bet that blow-up. I'm sure that the Alaska and JetBlue status match was a wake up call as I believe this Atlanta Rotary Club forum occurred after JetBlue's announcement. AmEx had enough data after 14 days to go back to Delta that credit card cancellation rates were up significantly compared to the historically rate.

Ed does not say anything by accident. To Wall Street, he indicates that he provides a market leading elite experience exceeding other airlines. Today he told a different audience he is not providing an elite experience and reiterates a supposed comittment. Which he is not, he should try calling his customer service line and speaking to one of the 50% of those who answer who are in their first year or two of service. He will succeed in thinning the herd for sure and by walking back some of this he may keep those who buy the premium experience argument. I'll see what 2MM has bought me, apparently very little other than a free bag. There is not a chance I will keep my $695 Amex Platinum without lounge access and if I am not competing for Delta status, I have no reason to buy a DL international flight since they tossed non J passengers out of the lounges. If I do buy J, there are better options than DL. Next week on business travel I will not be on DL and will instead take the most convenient and lowest cost option.

You might want to be careful. It is very likely that these "changes" will be nothing more than window dressing. DL already knows many are dazzled by shiny things. They might just throw a few shiny things at people and hope they see it as DL capitulating.

I would be shocked if the changes they announced are not enacted exactly as announced but maybe on a slightly longer time line.

People are flying AF or KLM business fares for the better hard and soft product, especially inflight FA's, than D1 and getting the 40% MQD credit. D1 is an inferior product compared to DL's JV partners, as Mr Bastian is delusional if he believes that D1 is a premium experience. Come on now, where is the inflight wine menu? I remember the days of master sommelier Andrea Robinson. I'm sure that AmEx CL has a master sommelier who can be loaned to DL for the D1 and domestic FC wine program.

I don't dispute the difference between AF/KLM and Delta D1, but D1 is a lot more than those routes (think transcons, stuff like JFK and ATL to ZHR/BCN/MAD, flights to Asia, etc). Regardless of the actual metal my point is that the universe of people willing and able to pay for business class, and to credit to Delta, may be larger than we thought. Plus for me personally the ability to redeem D1 JFK to BCN last year via a SkyMiles flash sale, and to earn elite credit for it, helped me cross over to DM.

DAL is down over 16% for the past month, as I would be interested in the past 2 weeks. 5 days its down 5.71%. Did the recent stock slide have anything to do with the announced "rollback"?

This. We've seen the endgame. Delta just may now take a couple years to get there.

The massive mistake they made was making the PM waiver only $25,000. During Covid years not deducting the 75k MQM each year everyone and their neighbor and cousin - even my cleaning lady - were all PM.