Tedgrrrr

awesome - thanks

ethernal

This is just not true. On an O&D heavy route, the Reserve card makes a HUGE difference. Everyone buying at around the same time is buying the same fare class. Connecting routes it makes less of a differences (because married segment logic can result in a much more disparate spread of fare classes - on a route selling only M fares on a nonstop may be selling U fares on a connection or vice versa).

ATL-SJC, for example, is typically an H fare for 1-4 weeks before departure and then an M fare on most busier times 0-7 days before departure. While exceptions exist, this is pretty typical, and ATL-SJC is a high O&D route.

If most people are buying their tickets between 1-4 weeks before departure, then they are all getting the same exact fare class. If you don't have a reserve card, you are going to be at the bottom of the stack against Diamonds who do have a reserve card (or get mired in different tiebreakers like MQD waiver, corporate priority, and ticketing time). This can easily move you 10+ places on the upgrade list.

While all of this is a moot point (no one is getting a C+ or F upgrade if they're on an H fare flying ATL-SJC during busy hours - that's reserved to M/B fare holders or using RUCs), the point is that it can make a big difference in your relative placement on the list - at least 10-15 spots.

Worldtraveler727

I flew AUS-MSP-MKE-ATL-AUS this week. Only upgraded on MSP-MKE at the window. Ended up 5 of 40 on MKE-ATL and 11 of Max on ATL-AUS. Paid W or S fare as a Diamond 2+MM. Usually I miss by 1 or 2 but missing by 10 is new.

MSPeconomist

If you're truly standby and not just awaiting seat assignment at the gate, you haven't yet been confirmed onto the flight and therefore you CANNOT be on the upgrade list. Something is wrong, but I'm not sure it's what you think.

Tedgrrrr

no no you missed it. I had a confirmed seat on DL999 - SDC to a later flight because my inbound flight was delayed; and then tried to switch back to DL 999, and this time I was put on standby for DL 999. That is why I can relate to both the Upgrade list and standby list. But it's clear now that others had confirmed seats but not seats assigned and that is why I was 8th.

shukar

This is anecdotal, but last few weeks, I have been consistently below #5 when previously I used to be #1 or #2 as DL DM with Reserve card. I understand that a lot of things can affect the position on UG list, but it has persisted over a number of flights on different days and routes - with no obvious change from behavior on my end . My employer booking agency site always suggests cheapest tickets (not Basic Economy) and I usually buy with 5 to 8 days before the outbound flight.

WillBarrett_68

in any case, your position on either list is relative to the other people on the list, and it's highly unlikely any of the other people were on both of those lists.

The Situation

Since they introduced FCM and really started pushing it heavily, profits and margins are down. DL went from $4.5B in profit in 2015 to $3.9B in 2018 and margins have gone from ~11% to ~8%. I would say that the decrease has less to do with rewarding frequent fliers and more to do with selling seats for less than people are willing to pay (i.e. my recent $112 upgrade for 3300 miles in the air).

ethernal

I'm pretty sure 2015's outsized profits were primarily driven from the fact that the cost per barrel of Jet-A went from $120 in September of 2014 to $40 by December 2015. Airlines always outperform in times of falling fuel prices when the falling fuel price is not associated with a demand collapse (i.e., recession). Capacity (and, therefore, ticket price) was decided and modeled using a key input price factor that decreased by 65%.

HDQDD

Admittedly, I don't know what year they started FCM, but it wasn't last year. I was referring to a more macro level. 8-11% margins @DL were unheard of until ~2013. I also stipulate that FCM probably didn't drive that either, but ancillary fees (bags, seats, C+, FCM) in general are definitely contributing.

El Boocho

Had an odd one a few weeks ago. I think I was 8 of 8. I forget if I sat in Y or said screw it and bought up to the F seat. Still I was surprised. Could have been just one of those days, but something seemed off to me.

btonkid12345

I bought a V fare on ATL-SJC the day before departure and was instantly upgraded to F. YMMV, but your hyperbole of 10-15 spots lower as a Diamond Medallion is a bit much.

8 of 8 as a DM has to be wrong. Did you call or ask an ACS agent to verify that your placement on the list was correct? I was bottom of the list once for JFK-BOS and after I had someone review it, I went to #1 .

Zorak

Seems hard to be so confident about that without knowing the route and fare bucket.

MSPeconomist

Assuming that it wasn't a basic economy or award ticket, that it was a normal continental48 domestic FC route not ticketed as a codeshare etc., and that no one else was on the same PNR and no companion upgrade was requested, it's extremely unlikely that a DM would be 8 out of 8 on an upgrade list. A DM on a low fare class could be # 8, but there should be lower tier elites on the upgrade list beyond 8, and with 8 there's no question of the full list not being shown.

Was the person previously "upgraded" to C+?

Zorak

That's true, I didn't consider the 8 of 8 total aspect.