rylan

I think DL stands out from the competition as allowing the waiver for their top tier. This likely drives additional Amex spending and revenue for both companies.

Personally I'll probably not make DM, at least not regularly... and that would be my first time not as a DM since the program started.

My travel patterns fluctuate, so I take advantage of rollover and amex spend to fill in the gap in a slower year where I would only make PM normally, such at this year.

Overall big devaluation to the program and slap to DMs... the result will be lower revenue for Amex and large increase in the PM base vs DMs.

For those who are thinking the usual selfish thoughts that it will mean more upgrades, think again... did you forget that DL is pushing FCM hard? Those seats will just get bought up. This won't help your upgrades. The only thing it will do is reduce the number of pax with GUCs.

babypuwet

You can easily do 125,000 miles for less than $4,000. Although, I do think most people would fall somewhere between $5,000 to $9,000 if travelling internationally. A round-trip anywhere to Asia would yield between 15,000 to 20,000 miles and runs on average $850 (deals can be had for less than $700 regularly).

kop84

Should people who fly less then $.12 per mile ($15K/125K MQM's) get GUC's that can have value in the thousands of dollars?

rylan

Alternatively, those buying expensive D1 fares don't need the GUCs since they or their company pays to sit up front all the time.. and now they need the high fares to keep DM so wouldn't buy a cheap ticket and upgrade.

KDCAflyer

As someone who only flies enough for PM, all I can say is:

SeaHawg

Perhaps value to us, the flier, but what is the actual cost for DL? $50? $100 max? We're talking about the marginal cost of seats that go unfilled in J. What's that cost DL? A couple of meals, wine, a SkyClub visit, an amenity kit, and other miscallaneous items?

Without the GUC, fliers who have the waiver and travel internationally on coach fares to top off MQM's will likely try out the generally superior INTL J competition. I'm on track for $11k spend (my money- because I own my company) - Suppose my flying next year is the same, would paying $4k for a J fare to retain DM status be worth it over Plat status, or would I have a better experience catching a deal in competitor's J and depriving DL of that spend?

With PE becoming more of a mainstay, and my inability to sleep on planes, it may be wise just to shop around more.

kop84

You don't have to buy that expensive of fares to get to DM. $.12 per mile gets you there, its just not all V/X fares. Same $.12/per mile gets you FO, GM, and PM.

$15K / 25 RT's per year is $600 per ticket base fare
$15K / 40 RT's per year is $375 per ticket base fare

You don't have to be a TATL/TPAC D1 traveler to get DM...something tells me the RT numbers for several DM's here is light for a given year.

tentseller

FTW:

• Annual spent on DL <$10,000 or even less depending on VDB vouchers. Personal outlay is probably around $0.04-0.05/MQM
• Annual MQM collected >150,000.
• Non-US resident so MQD waived.
• AMEX is Asian version for better benefits and reward accumulations.
• Sitting on 500k+ MQM to roll over.
• Have full flexibility on TPAC work flight schedule.

hnewman

The only way this changes is if AMEX yells. If this happens I am canceling the Reserve Card and getting the cheapest AMEX I can get.

Zorak

Right, besides the AMEX angle, people who fall short on MQDs may move the extra 50K MQMs onto other airlines.

Of course, depending how many Mileage Boosts someone currently enjoys, that could represent anywhere from 0-50K of actual flying.

Still, for those who remain DM, less competition for upgrades can't hurt.

Fewer SC memberships maybe?

kop84

The marginal cost to transport any single person on board is negligible when you look at it that way. But when you look at it as an opportunity cost to DL as not being able to sell that seat...I'm sure there are many flights with people on GUC's that have sold out in J...it's back to thousands of potential dollars.

Zorak

But isn't the refrain for those waitlisted with certs that you only get the inventory when RM thinks it won't sell the seat? Sometimes they get it wrong and you clear a cert and the flight ends up full. Other times there isn't demand and NRSAs clear into J.

I guess we'd all be interested in knowing what the average amortized opportunity cost of a cleared cert is to DL

Grouchy

In 2004 and 2008 it was AmEx bailing out Delta by providing them basically with a $600 million & $1 billion boost in liquidity. Appareantly times are changing and Delta seems to have enough liquidity/other sources of income as i imagine they will factor or have factored that all into any decision.

rylan

I would suspect not many... and not one that I've been one yet. DL has the statistics and if flights sell out in J, they don't make the upgrade space available until a couple days before the flight or only at the gate... take LAX-SYD and ATL-JNB as examples.

Other flights I've been on with a GUC always had some available seats at boarding time that got filled with non-rev.

MSCOTT8

You didn't know you were wrong on the last one, so how would you know you were wrong on this one....