FWAAA

About that bolded part: I don't think it's realistic to think that Delta will acquire three more USA-HND flights. The current numbers being thrown around are a reduction in the number of nighttime flights from four to one, plus enough daytime slots for five flights, for a total of six USA-carrier daily flights to HND (plus, presumably, an equal number for JAL and NH to split). This means an increase for USA-carriers from four daily flights to six daily flights. Here are some articles explaining the numbers:

http://kyodonews.net/news/2016/02/12/49600

http://kyodonews.net/news/2016/02/08/49077

http://canmua.net/new-york/japan-us-...da-406335.html

It's likely that AA, DL and UA would be permitted to switch their current LAX and SFO flights to daytime operations. Given that the nighttime slots work fine for HNL-HND, I predict that HA would keep the lone nighttime flght, and that leaves just two new daytime flights for AA, DL and UA to fight over.

I seriously doubt that DL would win both of them, since AA and UA would obviously make compelling cases for JFK, EWR and ORD in addition to DL's probable applications for DTW and JFK. SEA is a loser, as it lacks sufficient O&D compared to NYC and CHI. Delta's insistence that SEA-HND was a seasonal market probably dooms a future SEA-HND bid.

NYC and CHI to Japan are not seasonal markets and daytime slots at HND would avoid the issue that caused the failure of AA's JFK flight and DL's DTW flight: the nightime slots aren't optimal from the west coast but don't work at all from the east or midwest.

FireEmblemPride

http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO...6A210C1000000/

It's official -- the US and Japan agree on 12 daily flights between HND and US, with 10 of them during the daytime and 2 in the evening through early morning. They will split the allocations in half, leaving 5 daytime slots to be presumably negotiated between the US3 carriers.

TheMoose

I suspect this spells the end of MSP/PDX-NRT and, moreover, nonstop flights to Tokyo from those cities. I can't see any scenario where Delta operates a split operation at TYO beyond the one-off LAX-HND which currently operates, and with the five or fewer slots Delta will gain, those cities are likely to be the "odd men out".

kiwicanuck

I guess we'll see how much they like all the Nike Longhaul business class traffic throughout the rest of their network, I wouldn't be surprised to see it go bye if they cancel NRT or AMS from PDX

Tanaka07

Why would they cancel PDX-AMS? It's a very profitable route that feeds into the KLM hub. And with the huge increase in passenger numbers PDX-Europe in the past year I wouldn't be surprised to see PDX-CDG soon. DL can shift the PDX-NRT frame over to PDX-CDG. I actually HOPE DL drops PDX-NRT so it would open up an opportunity for a different carrier that can provide better connections to more Asian countries(maybe KE PDX-ICN or NH/JL PDX-NRT).

kiwicanuck

PDX-AMS is the NIKE shuttle for all intents and purposes and both NRT and AMS are/have been directly subsidized by Nike. I think the swoosh would prefer a direct to PVG than NRT but are unlikely to keep subsidizing the routes and actually bid competitively both routes should they lose the nonstop to Asia.

firstmob

Might be time to kiss and make up with KE and move everything to ICN!

JORBUST

NRT is not going to be a hub for Delta within a few years, maybe sooner. People like to fly into HND better when visiting Tokyo, and that's going to lower their loads enough that the connection traffic doesn't justify it. They will end re-purposing those aircrafts for direct flights. For example I could see them getting rid of a direct flight to NRT and adding a flight to Taipei (and no longer flying NRT-TPE).

mnredfox

I love NRT, wouldn't be opposed to a move to HND though. I do find NRT a better airport and loved it when I visited the town of Narita on a long layover. If a move to HND is in order, just please make sure the DL SC has a beer machine.

FWAAA

Delta won't be gaining anywhere near five new flights to HND. There are currently four flights allocated to the USA carriers, and later this year there will be six total (five daytime and one nighttime).

That leaves two additional daily nonstops for AA, DL, UA and HA to fight over. Delta might gain one, but it's unlikely it would get both.

KDCAflyer

I don't understand why they refuse to consider this. China is looking less and less economically attractive by the day. KE is a much more established and globally recognized airline than MU, and ICN is a much more developed airport.

Delta seems set on a PVG hub, but an ICN hub could also make a lot of sense. Don't see a reason why they couldn't at least try both.

pbarnette

I think the number of slots DL gets will be entirely dependent upon how much the DOT weights having a third viable competitor and whether it considers the JL and NH slots to effectively be AA and UA slots (they are). If the goal is to maximize total competition, they will give DL both. If the goal is to give geographical diversity, the decision may differ. I don't think HA will get anything save maybe the late slot.

pbarnette

If KE doesn't want to play nice, the decision is made for DL and they have no choice but to look to MU. There is scant evidence that KE wants to play nice.

jiburi

Delta made noise about dropping MSP but would have never guessed LAX get the AX.

SFO was first, now LAX. With both of california cities gone, NRT downsize is becoming real....

Anyone impacted by this change?

Jiburi

BenA

I think, given the China Eastern partnership they're trying to build up, Delta would also prefer PVG. If your speculation is true, I wonder if the PDX market would be a good test for Delta's new plan to flow traffic to Asia through Shanghai instead?