GYEWorldTraveler

Your argument just proved why they made the move! Do the math of what you just suggested assuming a $1000 coach ticket for simplicity:

7 BE seats being kept @ $1500 = $10,500 (your suggestion)

OR

30 coach seats @ $1000 each = $30,000 (DLs choice)

I mean it looks pretty obvious that the smart choice wouldn't be to have M fares priced only 50% above the coach fare just by the figures alone. If you can sell 30 seats at $1000 instead of 7 BE seats going to upgrades at $1500, there is a heck of a lot more revenue potential in going the coach route - not to mention it keeps the BE to coach ratio a lot more aligned as the 777s used to have a lot higher ratio than 747s and A330s flying some similar routes on Asia trips.

I personally only think a few routes will be negatively impacted by this move - ATL-JNB and ATL-DXB. The rest of the 777 routes will likely see a huge benefit as the US-China flights have been really leisure heavy with many days having 30-40 open seats in J. LAX-SYD also doesn't need the capacity in J as I'm guessing a lot of the J seats are taken by award travel and many go out empty. This change should help the CASM and boost performance on a lot of Asia flying.

MSPeconomist

The difference is primarily fuel capacity, right, perhaps combined with cargo weight and therefore range?

GYEWorldTraveler

Yea easiest way is to look at the tail number or nosewheel:

7000s number is a 777-200ER

7100s number is a 777-200LR

MSPeconomist

However, BE seats are very rarely if ever as cheap as $1500. If one calculates floor space (taking account of aisle space, etc. in the cabin), this would give a rough bound for reasonable price ratios (for the last seat that otherwise would not have been sold?), but this should be adjusted for weight and the associated increased fuel costs of flying 30 coach passengers and their luggage rather than 7 BE passengers and their bags.

If LAX-SYD won't be impacted, why is it so tough to get upgrades and award tickets on the DL operated flights to/from Australia?

Depending on day of the week, many of the NRT TPAC flights are quite full in BE. The same is true of many DL intraAsia flights.

GYEWorldTraveler

$1500 was the suggestion of another poster (50% above the coach ticket cost for an upgradeable ticket). So $1000 was used for simplicity sake to illustrate what DLs thinking likely was in making the move.

Are you suggesting that DL operates above an 85% business class paid load factor on its 777 operations? If DL was selling the seats, they sure as heck wouldn't be thinking of removing seats....

Obviously there was a thorough analysis conducted. I can tell you that I have flown on a number of 777 flights in the past couple years and aside from JNB, DXB and some NRT flying, there have been a number of open seats up front that went to nonrevs, op ups or flew empty.

As far as the LAX-SYD comment, just because a flight is hard to find award or upgrade space on doesn't prove much. Many people pay mid and high level award prices so why would DL have saver awards on LAX-SYD if the market will pay more? With partners, it's saver or nothing so I would assume that the availability will always look better because they have 1 level (LOW) versus 3 on DL metal.

There are a number of factors that we could speculate on but I think DL has more data and analysis on passenger behavior, fares paid, inventory classes sold, overbooking, Op-Ups, etc than anyone here would have at their disposal. I'm sure that DL is aware that they will be leaving money on the table on some routes on some days but if it helps DTW-PEK/PVG/ICN everyday, then it may provide the network with millions of dollars of benefit.

ashill

GYEWorldTraveler was responding to mdb's (mathematically invalid) suggestion that DL would make more money by selling M fares which are then upgraded by SWUs into the 7 J seats than by selling discount coach fares. Although $1500 is on the cheap side for a LAX-SYD one way in M -- I've paid more for Q.

Seems pretty simple: the last 7 BE seats need to sell, on average, for roughly 27/7=3.8 times more than the last 27 coach seats* for this change to be profitable (including any ancillary revenue from the coach passenger in that calculation). Yes, the soft costs and fuel are a bit different per passenger or per unit floor area in J and Y, but I doubt that's a big deal compared to the revenue.

*I'm assuming that the three rows of coach (27 seats) come from replacing J, and the remaining 3 new coach seats are somewhere else on the plane -- likely a new row in front of 44DEF replacing the aisle there.

stephem

This news strikes me as a bit of a stumble on DL's part. I don't care if the seats are empty, filled with people flying on miles, who have upgraded or what. If they can't fill the number of business class seats they had originally put on these planes with passengers paying for J seats, then they haven't executed well on something.

Are their J fares too high compared to competition that offers a superior product? Are their corporate customers not buying as many J tickets these days? Not sure what the answer is, but having to take out J seats and cram in more Y is not an insignificant course correction.

MSPeconomist

I would agree on this. It sounds like noncompetitive quality for the prices charged (execution failure), or possibly overoptimism or bad yield management. In any event, it's a mistake with some costs of reconfiguring otherwise fairly new aircraft interiors, plus some loss of face.

On the quality level, I would point to inferior and declining lounges except at NRT, (at best inconsistent) overall service on board, (poor/cheap) wine quality (except for the two new Burgundy selections in BE), bad arrival experience at LAX from HND, schedule (in)convenience for some routes, (generally poor) FF program, (generally poor) quality of alliance partners, (lack of) transparency and ease of booking via the website, etc. IMO the TPAC hard product is generally excellent (except for some of the connecting flights) with flat beds all having direct aisle access, good AVOD, and good bedding (but no mattress pads or PJs).

DCAproducer

I've flew Delta's 777 in BE twice this year. Once BE was full. The second flight was about 60%. 7 fewer seats will definitely be interesting.

To the comments about AA, I left AA in 2008 after years of loyalty, going back to the TWA days. The lack of upgrades for anyone outside of top tier elites, an aging fleet, and piss poor customer service drove me away. DL has it's moments, but as a whole has been a positive experience.

If the airline industry continues to make money, expect to see more elite perks and especially upgrades to vanish. If airlines, DL included, can sell those seats up front they will. All of my rides in J have been paid for. I used my SWU certs this hear for Biz to the Caribbean, which is just a standard F cabin.

exwannabe

To the end of your post, all I care about on TPAC is the seats. I would fly BE in flat bed direct access and take meals of bugs or grits, vs 2-4-2 BE and meals served personally by the best chef in the world.

But to the first point, I think you are not putting your econ hat on here. DL's Y product might well be a game changer, by default. As everybody else goes to 10 across (which is dreadful), DL will be upping the price in Y.

Under IROPS, if I had to sit in the back TPAC in a 3-3-3, I would cringe (never have done this). I can fly Y+ 2-4-2 OK. But put me in a 3-4-3 and I will walk off the plane, seriously.

This play of a better Y might fail (if too many just book lowest cost). But it is not clearly just a failure to sell BE.

lucycan

If I have two BE seats booked (mileage) on a 777 for 10 months from now what are the chances that they pull the seats and then boot me?

Dawgfan6291

just a note, I'm not sure what is "fairly" new. The 777s were the first in the Delta fleet to get the lie-flats with the ERs getting them the same time Delta got ship 7001 from Boeing, in 2008. 5 years is not what I would call new.

honestly, I expected Delta to just re-fit the fleet with the same seat on the 330/744s. Its, IMO, a better product and would allow them to get down to two types of C-class seats on the wide bodies.


edit, I forgot to add, not only was it 5 years ago but it was pre-merger, pre-Anderson etc. Little big of a different Delta.

DiverDave

Correct, but they are also pulling BE seats from some of the 767s and the paint is barely dry on those newly reconfigured birds.

David

fly747first

Yes, but except for the 744s and BE configured 752s, DL's long-haul fleet tends to offer few lavatories for BE pax in general.

GYEWorldTraveler

Actually none of the 76Zs ever had flatbeds before the mods. DL planned to have 25J/200Y on the plane from the get go. All of them used to have cradles and were a mix of the the 76Gs and 76Us. So DL never modded a 767 to have flatbeds and then pulled out seats after the flatbed mod.