AA/US merger is official, impact on DL
Feb 14, 2013, 2:55 pm
#61
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Portland, OR
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Depends on where you live, where you fly, your status and banked mileage inventory in each of the programs, including Delta, and what unknown marketers will do to the prices will do in each of the markets they compete in, along with those they don't compete in.
It's a bit early to think about second and third order effects and make decisions on guessing. IMHO.
I prefer to contemplate whether they'll add Woodford to the AA menu and buy up all the supply and THAT might affect me.
It's a bit early to think about second and third order effects and make decisions on guessing. IMHO.
I prefer to contemplate whether they'll add Woodford to the AA menu and buy up all the supply and THAT might affect me.
Feb 14, 2013, 2:55 pm
#62
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I also think DL is at least kicking the tires and taking a look at AS, not that I think it's eminent, but DL would be foolish to not take a look.
Feb 14, 2013, 3:04 pm
#63
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: St. Louis, MO
Programs: AA EXP, DL PM, HHonors Diamond, National
Posts: 126
I just made Diamond on segments on DL - that means I now get pretty good UG rates. However, I am going to jump back to AA/US once things settle down, assuming EXP qualification stays at 100 segments. So, to all my friends at the ATL hub, there'll be one less DM competing for the last UG!
Feb 14, 2013, 3:28 pm
#64
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As a long time Delta flyer it is sad to see Delta drop back to number 3 in the U.S. For years it was always American and United batteling it out for number s one and two with United leading for years, then American bought TWA going to number one. Delta finally became the largest with Northwest, but now drops back to its old number 3 position. Hopefully, Delta will find a way to grow to regain the top position someday! Maybe more on the West Coast where it is hard to fly them without Alaska!
I would prefer not to go thru the disruption of another acquisition/merger.
It might distract them from their current diligent efforts to fix the award calendar.
Feb 14, 2013, 3:44 pm
#66
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Feb 14, 2013, 3:46 pm
#67
Join Date: May 2006
Location: GA
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US and AA are two of the best FF programs for redemption. With the US airways CC you can get 20k RT saver awards in the 48, and I've done it easily a few times. And I just booked a US-STT trip on AA for 35k, DL wanted 70k.
I fear that the new airline will try to devalue the FF program during the merger and there will be less reason for DL to slow the SkyPesos devaluation.
I fear that the new airline will try to devalue the FF program during the merger and there will be less reason for DL to slow the SkyPesos devaluation.
Feb 14, 2013, 3:48 pm
#68
Join Date: May 2006
Programs: Delta Skymiles, Flying Blue
Posts: 717
Most profitable airline is a lot better than being the biggest. (Ask Alaska Airlines) (I think Delta is close behind them for the last reporting period).
Feb 14, 2013, 4:53 pm
#69
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: SUX
Programs: BA Silver; HHonors Gold; SPG Gold; Points but dirt with everyone else
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I'm not sure why you think that DL is now going to fall behind. 2012 was sufficient proof that, no matter how often management says "route network," bigger isn't necessarily better.
In the long term, the three will probably converge toward similar sizes; Delta is further along in its consolidation process, and has thus had more time than the others to shrink. In the short term, I think that the new AA can easily give 2012 United a run for its money in operational awfulness.
In the long term, the three will probably converge toward similar sizes; Delta is further along in its consolidation process, and has thus had more time than the others to shrink. In the short term, I think that the new AA can easily give 2012 United a run for its money in operational awfulness.
Long-haul US: BRU, GIG, GRU, CDG, FRA, MUC, DUB, ATH, SNN, TLV, FCO, VCE, AMS, LIS, BCN, MAD, ZRH, GLA, LON, MAN
Long-haul AA: EZE, BSB, GRU, GIG, SCL, PEK, PVG, HEL, CDG, DUS, FRA, DUB, MXP, FCO, TYO (NRT and HND), ICN, BCN, MAD, ZRH, LON, MAN
(Maybe plus a few other Brazilian cities served by narrowbodies.)
That's 30 combined international destinations, if I counted correctly. I suspect FRA will see a draw-down in light of no longer having *A connections at the other end. Old AA already withdrew from BRU, so will new AA want to stay there? Some of those likely aren't terribly high-yielding routes, so the capacity will be scaled as well. There's a lot of discussion about remaining in TLV given some legal issues AA inherited from TW. If they adopt US's operating certificate but call themselves AA, would that solve the problems in Israel? I imagine there are a lot of lawyers eager to get into that mess.
Now let's look at DL's 55 destinations:
Long-haul DL: EZE, SYD, BRU, BSB, GIG, GRU, SCL, PEK, PVG, PRG, CPH, NCE, CDG, DUS, FRA, MUC, STR, ACC, ATH, GUM, HKG, KEF, BOM, DUB, SNN, TLV, MXP, PSA, FCO, VCE, FUK, NGO, KIX, TYO (NRT and HND), ROB, AMS, LOS, SPN, ROR, MNL, SVO, SIN, JNB, ICN, BCN, MAD, AGP, ARN, ZRH, TPE, BKK, IST, DXB, LON, MAN
OK, so the NRT hub obviously helps out here somewhat, but I think that's just seven (bolded) destinations served only via NRT (or as intra-Asia routes). DL has been right-sizing their network for a while at this stage. As part of that, they've expanded some destinations where they really seem to be making money. Working with AS at SEA has cut off the new AA from doing too much there, even if AA and AS remain partners. (For comparison, UA has maybe 65 destinations by this method. I undoubtedly screwed up a bit in doing my quick count over the legacy CO island hopper routes.)
Without international lift, I suspect we'll see the new AA slash more domestic capacity, dropping it out of the #1 spot. If their customer service mess is even half of what UA went through, they'll probably face some really rough times. I think DL is content with what it is. Being #1 is not all that it's cracked up to be in this regard. DL would much rather be the most profitable airline than the biggest airline.
Feb 14, 2013, 5:07 pm
#70
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: SEA
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As a long time Delta flyer it is sad to see Delta drop back to number 3 in the U.S. For years it was always American and United batteling it out for number s one and two with United leading for years, then American bought TWA going to number one. Delta finally became the largest with Northwest, but now drops back to its old number 3 position. Hopefully, Delta will find a way to grow to regain the top position someday! Maybe more on the West Coast where it is hard to fly them without Alaska!
Feb 14, 2013, 6:01 pm
#71
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That's not accurate. Although PHX is just the 14th largest metro area in the country, PHX is the 8th largest domestic O&D market, just behind SFO and just ahead of BOS. PHX has more than three times the domestic O&D as MEM and CVG, combined. Even better, that domestic O&D is at higher average fares than either BOS or SFO.
Feb 14, 2013, 6:08 pm
#72
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: SEA
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Posts: 2,266
That's not accurate. Although PHX is just the 14th largest metro area in the country, PHX is the 8th largest domestic O&D market, just behind SFO and just ahead of BOS. PHX has more than three times the domestic O&D as MEM and CVG, combined. Even better, that domestic O&D is at higher average fares than either BOS or SFO.
Feb 14, 2013, 6:19 pm
#73
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: CONUS
Posts: 474
What changes in time for me is Delta gets to rake more money out of SkyMiles and provide less and less benefits because there will be less competition. Think about it...you'll have 3 airlines that offer a full-service product that can compete for nationwide traffic. To me, that's not competition.
Feb 14, 2013, 7:38 pm
#74
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That may be true but PHX still will likely see quite a few cuts with LAX close on one side and DFW the other. The biggest beneficiary of the merger in PHX will be WN. No doubt PHX stays a hub of decent size for the merged carrier but I can almost guarantee it will be cut back from what it is today.
WN has its hands full with its FL merger integration and the inevitable challenges that its new position as the highest-wage airline will bring as it attempts to reach new contracts with its unions. I don't see much growth on the WN horizon.
Feb 14, 2013, 7:43 pm
#75
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I'm curious why you would imagine that AA would unload any of its 738s? Was AA's case converted to a chapter 7 liquidation? Is AA being parted out?
The oldest AA 738 is just 14 years old. It's possible that some of the oldest 738s would be retired in 2018-22 as the 737MAX order is delivered, but not before then. AA still has over 150 MD-80s to retire before any 738s would leave the fleet.
AA has been retiring plenty of MD-80s and some 757s. 20 757s retired in 2011-12 and 12 more this year. Perhaps Richard Anderson would see value in those?
The oldest AA 738 is just 14 years old. It's possible that some of the oldest 738s would be retired in 2018-22 as the 737MAX order is delivered, but not before then. AA still has over 150 MD-80s to retire before any 738s would leave the fleet.
AA has been retiring plenty of MD-80s and some 757s. 20 757s retired in 2011-12 and 12 more this year. Perhaps Richard Anderson would see value in those?