Originally Posted by
akonradi
I'm not sure why you think that DL is now going to fall behind. 2012 was sufficient proof that, no matter how often management says "route network," bigger isn't necessarily better.
In the long term, the three will probably converge toward similar sizes; Delta is further along in its consolidation process, and has thus had more time than the others to shrink. In the short term, I think that the new AA can easily give 2012 United a run for its money in operational awfulness.
This is pretty accurate, and I think that the new AA is unlikely to remain #1 for long for the simple reason that it has nowhere near the international network that DL and UA operate.
Long-haul US: BRU, GIG, GRU, CDG, FRA, MUC, DUB, ATH, SNN, TLV, FCO, VCE, AMS, LIS, BCN, MAD, ZRH, GLA, LON, MAN
Long-haul AA: EZE, BSB, GRU, GIG, SCL, PEK, PVG, HEL, CDG, DUS, FRA, DUB, MXP, FCO, TYO (NRT and HND), ICN, BCN, MAD, ZRH, LON, MAN
(Maybe plus a few other Brazilian cities served by narrowbodies.)
That's 30 combined international destinations, if I counted correctly. I suspect FRA will see a draw-down in light of no longer having *A connections at the other end. Old AA already withdrew from BRU, so will new AA want to stay there? Some of those likely aren't terribly high-yielding routes, so the capacity will be scaled as well. There's a lot of discussion about remaining in TLV given some legal issues AA inherited from TW. If they adopt US's operating certificate but call themselves AA, would that solve the problems in Israel? I imagine there are a lot of lawyers eager to get into that mess.
Now let's look at DL's 55 destinations:
Long-haul DL: EZE, SYD, BRU, BSB, GIG, GRU, SCL, PEK, PVG, PRG, CPH, NCE, CDG, DUS, FRA, MUC, STR, ACC, ATH, GUM,
HKG, KEF, BOM, DUB, SNN, TLV, MXP, PSA, FCO, VCE, FUK, NGO, KIX, TYO (NRT and HND), ROB, AMS, LOS,
SPN,
ROR,
MNL, SVO,
SIN, JNB, ICN, BCN, MAD, AGP, ARN, ZRH,
TPE,
BKK, IST, DXB, LON, MAN
OK, so the NRT hub obviously helps out here somewhat, but I think that's just seven (bolded) destinations served only via NRT (or as intra-Asia routes). DL has been right-sizing their network for a while at this stage. As part of that, they've expanded some destinations where they really seem to be making money. Working with AS at SEA has cut off the new AA from doing too much there, even if AA and AS remain partners. (For comparison, UA has maybe 65 destinations by this method. I undoubtedly screwed up a bit in doing my quick count over the legacy CO island hopper routes.)
Without international lift, I suspect we'll see the new AA slash more domestic capacity, dropping it out of the #1 spot. If their customer service mess is even half of what UA went through, they'll probably face some really rough times. I think DL is content with what it is. Being #1 is not all that it's cracked up to be in this regard. DL would much rather be the most profitable airline than the biggest airline.