N639DL

Just got a push alert from the Associated Press stating that they have agreed to merge.

Despite the AP reporting that they would be the biggest airline (however that isn't true) it will certainly change DL's strategies going forward.

It depends on what hub(s) will be downsized. ATL goes with CLT, NYC to PHL/AA in NYC, DTW/MSP to ORD, LAX to PHX/AA at LAX, MEM to DFW.

DL has a bigger international network than the combined carrier so I think they could keep international going good, but also by keeping their domestic product in shape. AA is retiring their M80s while DL will be keeping theirs for a few more years.

I think DL could get a deal on some of the combined carrier's domestic frames. Probably some of AA's older 738s (ones that are 10 years or so) if they can get it for the right price. AA can just order some more 738s or A320 series, whatever the carrier is going for.

What else do you think could happen?

javabytes

Really, if the US/AWE merger is any indication of how this is going to go, I don't see it going well.

US Airways is a joke when it comes to technology. Can't wait to see how this integration is going to go. Ten FT bucks says it will result in far more difficulties than UA/CO.

Putting on my armchair CEO hat, I see PHX as likely to get the shaft in all of this, despite claims they'll retain it as a hub. They'll retain it just like DL retained MEM as a hub. DFW to remain strong. I can't see both PHL and JFK remaining at their current size. I would think CLT would get a haircut too. I think MIA would escape relatively intact. Being based near ORD/MKE, I expect I'll fare quite well with flight options out of ORD.

Big downside for me is the combined entity leaving *A and retaining American's membership in OW. US miles were relatively easy to obtain and were great for partner bookings on *A carriers like LH. OW doesn't excite me nearly as much. I also don't see AA's relatively open award calendar continuing, and expect awards on the new AA metal to become harder to come by.

Biggest threat to DL, I think, would be how the combined entity goes after corporate contracts. DL has made big investments into the product where US has largely ignored it, and AA hasn't done too much better, so they'll still have their work cut out for them there.

readywhenyouare

This is what happens when you are the last two airlines to merge. No one wanted to merge with either AA or US. They had no choice and in this case a negative and a negative will not be positive. This merger will really put it in to perspective that we really don't have it that bad at Delta.

dtwtransport

I am almost certain the new combined AA/US will be required to drop some slots at DCA. I hope DL is able to pick up some of the slots. I'd really like to see the return of non-stop DCA-BOS and maybe flights to compliment the AS non-stops to LAX and/or SEA (depending on perimeter restrictions).

GRALISTAIR

Agreed- can't see JFK and PHL being so close retaining their present size - PHL will be downsized. (OT but same reason ORD will survive with UA and CLE will slowly be downsized).

Lose some gates at DCA (regulator will insist). PHX/LAX - not sure on that one.

Overall there will be little impact on DL for about 2 years until they get their act together.

cdubose98

In terms of the new AA's hubs, the biggest loser will probably be PHX. It's not that high-yielding and doesn't have a lot of international business traffic. CLT might be reduced a bit. I don't see PHL or NYC being shrunk due to the inability to add PHL's connecting traffic to NYC, although AA might try to move a few of PHL's European routes to JFK. ORD shouldn't be affected by this. DFW and MIA will keep doing their thing.

I think the biggest impact on DL will be to Europe, since the new AA will be able to use PHL as a connecting hub a la UA at EWR and leave NYC O&D for JFK. AA will also grow at LGA, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few slots surrendered there (on a related note, I bet US is kicking themselves for agreeing to the LGA-DCA slot swap, since their competitive position in NYC is now greatly improved). This merger might actually help DL in Latin America since some connection-heavy LatAm flights out of CLT might get cut, and DL doesn't really compete for MIA O&D anyway. In the Pacific, the only real difference is that any passengers US used to send to UA/*A will now be sent to AA/OW. Domestically, DL should benefit from one less competitor, except in maybe LGA and LAX.

GRALISTAIR

I think another impact on DL will be the impact on SkyTeam. US Airways leaving *A will not weaken that alliance. US joining OW will strengthen that alliance a little. So SkyTeam definitely in last place IMO

rylan

It will do nothing but hurt consumers in both the short and long term... less competition, higher fares, and reduced benefits, which is what we've already been seeing. It'll only get worse.

Sez_Who

Been saying for three years that the biggest loser with this merger will be FFers. The airlines will work out their respective territories and it will take a couple years to get through this latest merger. Meanwhile, the 'elites' are thrown under the bus a little more each day as all of them work through what they see as excess here, too.

Not gonna be pretty for a few years.

arkietraveler

AA, despite all its existing problems, has a clear plan forward. US, not so much, but I expect AA will steer the merged ship.

AA seems determined to imitate Delta attempt to step up inflight quality. It will also bring on dozens of new planes in the next few years. Delta will be flying older jets. That may work out for Delta's shareholders, but AA will have a nicer product.

akonradi

SkyTeam has been in last place since it was formed in 2000.

rylan

And DL becomes last place of the major carriers now too.

jdrtravel

I would guess the biggest impact on DL flyers will higher air fares. This seems to be the final step in the huge transformation of US carriers that started over a decade ago. We are now left with very little competition and reduced inventory. I think things are just going to get more expensive.

Perhaps a plus could be that with so few airlines, they are going to actually be competing on key routes that they did not all overlap on before. Perhaps this will force some customer friendly incentives on key routes like the transcons but I'm not holding my breath.

jiburi

Despite the drop from #1 to #3, only in the span of about 3 years, I wonder if there's a chance to get back to #1? Wildcard might be Alaska Airlines.....

Alaska has been playing the indendence card for so long, and Alaska isn't going to join an alliance, just because Delta has dropped to #3, but Alaska will have to decide whether loss or gain of American as partner either will benefit or work against them.

Jiburi

akonradi

I'm not sure why you think that DL is now going to fall behind. 2012 was sufficient proof that, no matter how often management says "route network," bigger isn't necessarily better.

In the long term, the three will probably converge toward similar sizes; Delta is further along in its consolidation process, and has thus had more time than the others to shrink. In the short term, I think that the new AA can easily give 2012 United a run for its money in operational awfulness.