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Originally Posted by Teamstone
(Post 20100795)
Depends on you definition of skyrocket. Delta is up nearly 40% over the last year. I've been on the wrong side of a short when the stock went up 40%, it was VERY painful. With a short, you can lose everything. With options, you can only lose your investment. That is how I am defining risk in this case. Everyone can define risk how it suits them best. :)
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As a percentage basis? Absolutely! Would have lost 100% of the value of the puts.
As a $ basis: No way, much less as my I wouldn't have been willing to purchase that high a percentage of my portfolio into one asset. It was a painful lesson for me. Still willing to short but would cover with purchasing call options at well under the 40% LOL! Now back to our previous discussion: "OMG this change sucks and will destroy Delta or Its about time, Delta finally will take care of me in a Porsche"
Originally Posted by javabytes
(Post 20100880)
True, the short carries a risk of unlimited loss... but I'd bet if you held put options, they would have lost way more than 40% over the same period. To each his own.
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my cloudy crystal ball
No one really knows the ultimate effect of the money component in the elite qualification scheme. I predict that silver and gold status will once again be valuable.
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Originally Posted by bubbashow
(Post 20100221)
DL is going to be MORE loyal to those MORE loyal to them with cash.
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stolen from a.net. Delta looks like it's doing pretty well, but it isn't leading anywhere.
Legend is: Airline - RASM - CASM - Yield cents - Profit/Loss Margin % Atlantic AA - 16.16 - 15.93 - 13.77 - 1.4% DL - 14.78 - 12.93 - 14.07 - 14.3% UA - 15.53 - 13.75- 14.41 - 12.9% US - 16.07 - 13.39 - 13.26 - 20.0% Latin AA - 19.31 - 16.69 - 17.45 - 15.6% DL - 14.44 - 12.63 - 14.01 - 14.4% UA - 16.54 - 12.73 - 16.27 - 29.9% US - 16.55 - 15.11 - 14.05 - 9.5% Pacific AA - 15.81 - 16.73 - 13.45 - (5.5%) DL - 16.20 - 12.68 - 15.97 - 27.7% HA - 13.19 - 10.22 - 13.47 - 29.1% UA - 16.90 - 12.91 - 17.07 - 30.9% |
Originally Posted by bubbashow
(Post 20100221)
And it still is a loyalty program. The standards by which you are loyal are changing. DL is going to be MORE loyal to those MORE loyal to them with cash.
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Originally Posted by bsagator
(Post 20101340)
stolen from a.net. Delta looks like it's doing pretty well, but it isn't leading anywhere.
Legend is: Airline - RASM - CASM - Yield cents - Profit/Loss Margin % Atlantic AA - 16.16 - 15.93 - 13.77 - 1.4% DL - 14.78 - 12.93 - 14.07 - 14.3% UA - 15.53 - 13.75- 14.41 - 12.9% US - 16.07 - 13.39 - 13.26 - 20.0% Latin AA - 19.31 - 16.69 - 17.45 - 15.6% DL - 14.44 - 12.63 - 14.01 - 14.4% UA - 16.54 - 12.73 - 16.27 - 29.9% US - 16.55 - 15.11 - 14.05 - 9.5% Pacific AA - 15.81 - 16.73 - 13.45 - (5.5%) DL - 16.20 - 12.68 - 15.97 - 27.7% HA - 13.19 - 10.22 - 13.47 - 29.1% UA - 16.90 - 12.91 - 17.07 - 30.9% |
Originally Posted by bubbashow
(Post 20100221)
And it still is a loyalty program. The standards by which you are loyal are changing. DL is going to be MORE loyal to those MORE loyal to them with cash.
Besides, it sounds more like we're buying these benefits now as a kickback, not as a loyalty reward. |
Originally Posted by dieuwer2
(Post 20101431)
The high margins for US (TATL) and UA (Latin) surprise me.
The discussion of these numbers is here: US Carrier Intl Route Profitability - 3Q12 |
Originally Posted by rylan
(Post 20101483)
Besides, it sounds more like we're buying these benefits now as a kickback, not as a loyalty reward.
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Originally Posted by bubbashow
(Post 20073968)
History has shown that what one major has done, the others have followed. Based on the historical "me too" of:
Baggage Fees No Free Meals in Y Seat Assignment fees ....etc .......etc, ..........etc I am making the prediction. UA floated THIS VERY IDEA a year ago. Complimentary domestic upgrade 3-tier award rollover MQM SWU on cheap coach fare None of these is implemented by all of the big-3 (AA UA DL). |
Originally Posted by FlyDeltaJets87
(Post 20101530)
You were always buying the benefits. There's no such thing as a free lunch.
Loyalty programs are there to generate revenue, plain and simple. In return for your business they give you some benefits others don't get. |
Originally Posted by Zomba
(Post 20099301)
I don't think that the new rules will eliminate mileage running entirely (i.e. some people will still 'top up' provided they have the spending but not the EQM), but they will reduce some of the MBWMBW type streaks of huge amounts of miles on T-fares throughout the year. I still think that a better choice would have been to eliminate/reduce the medallion bonus on certain fares, so that people didn't rack up 30k EQM for < $1k like has been known to happen. I know that position may be seen as heresy to some...
I do appreciate the concern, but no reason to worry. MBWMBW spends >$60,000 on his Delta Reserve card annually and will continue to steal your upgrades with his double or triple diamond status. --mbwmbw |
And have a cupcake in one arm and a Woodford reserve in the other.
Originally Posted by mbwmbw
(Post 20101875)
Hi All,
I do appreciate the concern, but no reason to worry. MBWMBW spends >$60,000 on his Delta Reserve card annually and will continue to steal your upgrades with his double or triple diamond status. --mbwmbw |
Originally Posted by bsagator
(Post 20101340)
stolen from a.net. Delta looks like it's doing pretty well, but it isn't leading anywhere.
Legend is: Airline - RASM - CASM - Yield cents - Profit/Loss Margin % Atlantic AA - 16.16 - 15.93 - 13.77 - 1.4% DL - 14.78 - 12.93 - 14.07 - 14.3% UA - 15.53 - 13.75- 14.41 - 12.9% US - 16.07 - 13.39 - 13.26 - 20.0% Latin AA - 19.31 - 16.69 - 17.45 - 15.6% DL - 14.44 - 12.63 - 14.01 - 14.4% UA - 16.54 - 12.73 - 16.27 - 29.9% US - 16.55 - 15.11 - 14.05 - 9.5% Pacific AA - 15.81 - 16.73 - 13.45 - (5.5%) DL - 16.20 - 12.68 - 15.97 - 27.7% HA - 13.19 - 10.22 - 13.47 - 29.1% UA - 16.90 - 12.91 - 17.07 - 30.9% |
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