Skymiles Change Rumor?
Mar 19, 2012, 6:43 pm
#226
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Join Date: Jun 2009
Programs: Delta skymiles DM + 1MM
Posts: 8,144
The fact that DL has been very hush hush lately and has not introduced any enhancements has me thinking something big is about to happen.
But if they pull this off now, they sure have bad timing because they are starting to reap some benefits from UA's merger mishap
The day that happens, I will status match/challenge to UA!
But if they pull this off now, they sure have bad timing because they are starting to reap some benefits from UA's merger mishap
The day that happens, I will status match/challenge to UA!
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...le-agents.html
Mar 19, 2012, 6:44 pm
#227
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2008
Location: CHA, MAN;
Programs: Delta DM 1 MM; Hz PC
Posts: 11,169
[QUOTE=holtju2;18232709]This possible change is a good reminder to start burning those close to 800K SkyMiles that I have had sitting on my account.
QUOTE]
Yes I just burned a few
IND-MSP-ANC
IND-SLC-MSO
IND-SLC-LWS
QUOTE]
Yes I just burned a few
IND-MSP-ANC
IND-SLC-MSO
IND-SLC-LWS
Mar 19, 2012, 6:49 pm
#228
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
Programs: DL DM/1MM, Natl Exec Elite, Bonvoy Plat, Hyatt Glob, Hilton Diam
Posts: 382
I know its a bit of a conspiracy theory, but I wonder if the O award availability 'glitch' was introduced when AF/KL said they didn't want to have a ton of award bookings placed on their metal once DL announces this and we try to get rid of our miles for something tangible...
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delta...ce-klm-25.html
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delta...t-yul-cdg.html
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delta...ce-klm-25.html
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delta...t-yul-cdg.html
Mar 19, 2012, 6:49 pm
#229
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Mar 19, 2012, 6:49 pm
#230
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Bye Delta
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UA is just about the worst place to go right now
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...le-agents.html
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...le-agents.html
Mar 19, 2012, 6:52 pm
#231
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: BDL/HPN/JFK/FLL
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Posts: 1,051
And reality says flying a plane from point A to point B is really frigging expensive. Much of that expense is a fixed cost. Until that cost is covered the airline makes NOTHING.
The lowest available fare is the airlines best guess at the highest market clearing fare given the current circumstances. If these fares were not enough to be profitable then the market is oversupplied and capacity will be cut long term. If the fares are too high, then competitors will try to add supply (though there are huge barriers to entry).
The overall capacity cutting we've seen applied recently is an anomaly. Unless DL's (UA's, etc.) board is winding down the company they need to GROW. This will eventually break any cartel action.
PS Just do the damned math. If you fly 12 round trips a year it would take Delta 36 once-trip-every-three-year LUT fliers to fill your seats. 12 is not a lot of trips. We are an annuity stream even when we don't buy high fare tickets. And the fact is most of us do buy at least some higher fare tickets.
Mar 19, 2012, 6:59 pm
#232
Join Date: Jan 2006
Programs: Skyteam
Posts: 5,759
If this entire thread was to be summarized, DL might add revenue as an third option to status, along with MQM and segment. Anything else would be like trading away Tebow and making Manning the starting QB.
Mar 19, 2012, 6:59 pm
#233
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: AUS
Programs: Delta FO, United Silver, National Executive, HHonors Silver, Marriott Silver
Posts: 347
I'll bite. I'm probably not in Delta's HVC club. I travel a fair amount for work (not a road warrior by any stretch of the imagination) and a fair amount for pleasure. My travel is almost exclusively domestic, save for an occasional TATL, and my fares usually range from M to T. I don't buy up fare classes unless I want to use a SWU (and then do so on my dime), so I take whatever DL is selling. That said, Delta is usually NOT the cheapest fare around. Everybody else at my company flies UA or AA. I will usually go out of my way to book DL if they are within a reasonable amount more than competitors, even if travel is a 1-stop instead of non-stop, unless I really need to get somewhere as quickly as possible. This includes driving an extra 30-60 minutes to another airport. (Frequent upgrades results in being able to work better, and IROPS recovery is another intangible benefit. So yes, I can defend my travel purchase patterns to an accountant with a straight face.) Add on top of that a SC membership and a DL AmEx card, and although I might not be a white envelope guy, I would think there is benefit to DL in having me stick around and fill their seats 75 times a year... if upgrade percentages drop precipitously and mileage redemption becomes significantly devalued, you can be sure I'm going to shop around more.
And that, I think, is the gap that mileage programs were intended to fill. Serious comparison shoppers (which a vast majority of the public are) will always grab the lowest cost offering. They may or may not have FF accounts; if they do, they have relatively low balances and probably little or no status because their flying is so distributed. Your highest paying customers are going to pay for premium cabins and probably could give a hoot about FF benefits. Somewhere in the middle is a spot airlines have carved out where they convince people not to comparison shop who otherwise might (or at least, not to comparison shop as much). And people in that group likely represent a good contingent of airline elite tiers. They are people that would probably spread their travel around if they were always after the lowest cost and greatest convenience, but have found a reason not to do so. While maybe not super HVCs, I can't imagine most are unprofitable for airlines, or that you'd want to get rid of them. That is a group I would have thought airlines would seek to maintain, but maybe if they continue monetizing the hell out of the kettles, it doesn't make sense to keep doing so.
(And yes, I have CO Plat - now UA 1P - but I don't actually fly much with CO.)
And that, I think, is the gap that mileage programs were intended to fill. Serious comparison shoppers (which a vast majority of the public are) will always grab the lowest cost offering. They may or may not have FF accounts; if they do, they have relatively low balances and probably little or no status because their flying is so distributed. Your highest paying customers are going to pay for premium cabins and probably could give a hoot about FF benefits. Somewhere in the middle is a spot airlines have carved out where they convince people not to comparison shop who otherwise might (or at least, not to comparison shop as much). And people in that group likely represent a good contingent of airline elite tiers. They are people that would probably spread their travel around if they were always after the lowest cost and greatest convenience, but have found a reason not to do so. While maybe not super HVCs, I can't imagine most are unprofitable for airlines, or that you'd want to get rid of them. That is a group I would have thought airlines would seek to maintain, but maybe if they continue monetizing the hell out of the kettles, it doesn't make sense to keep doing so.
(And yes, I have CO Plat - now UA 1P - but I don't actually fly much with CO.)
Mar 19, 2012, 7:02 pm
#234
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: New Mexico, USA
Programs: DL Gold, UA (new!) Silver, AA Hater, Marriott Down to Gold, Hilton grunt
Posts: 263
My LUT business travel fares are booked because I know in advance that I am almost definitely going to that destination. I give my money to them in advance and they cover part of the cost toward break-even, have better insight into capacity planning, and can adjust fare's up more easily as T-7 approaches. I'm not gaming the system. I'm getting a discount for committing to a purchase well in advance.
My YBM business travel fares are purchased because I don't have advanced knowledge of my travels. They get more money later if I travel but could just as well end up with an empty seat. Again, I'm not gaming the system. It's what is available when I elect to purchase.
The folks who think that we all perceive ourselves as HVC's could not be more wrong. I manage a business and that requires good money management. My loyalty to DL is the result of a combination of factors including; pricing, schedules, availability, customer service, and status considerations.
If Delta adopts three ways to gain status, similar to HHonors, I don't have a problem with that. High Frequency, High Revenue, or High Miles all seem like good indicators of loyalty. We all contribute to making this airline work.
I think we can infer from the thread that AMEX has also proven itself to be contributing to the DL bottom line in a very meaningful way. That said, I wonder how the AMEX spend will factor into the Revenue Based Model? It seems likely that this will be a factor. If so, a business owner could potentially see a loyalty benefit from putting his staff on DL planes. Not advocating this but simply pointing out the opportunity.
I believe as long as you fit one of the three High segments, DL should target your business and leave the leisure travel segment to another carrier. Status for 6 rt's on a sLUT fare? Really? What are you thinking Delta?
My YBM business travel fares are purchased because I don't have advanced knowledge of my travels. They get more money later if I travel but could just as well end up with an empty seat. Again, I'm not gaming the system. It's what is available when I elect to purchase.
The folks who think that we all perceive ourselves as HVC's could not be more wrong. I manage a business and that requires good money management. My loyalty to DL is the result of a combination of factors including; pricing, schedules, availability, customer service, and status considerations.
If Delta adopts three ways to gain status, similar to HHonors, I don't have a problem with that. High Frequency, High Revenue, or High Miles all seem like good indicators of loyalty. We all contribute to making this airline work.
I think we can infer from the thread that AMEX has also proven itself to be contributing to the DL bottom line in a very meaningful way. That said, I wonder how the AMEX spend will factor into the Revenue Based Model? It seems likely that this will be a factor. If so, a business owner could potentially see a loyalty benefit from putting his staff on DL planes. Not advocating this but simply pointing out the opportunity.
I believe as long as you fit one of the three High segments, DL should target your business and leave the leisure travel segment to another carrier. Status for 6 rt's on a sLUT fare? Really? What are you thinking Delta?
Mar 19, 2012, 7:07 pm
#235
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No, it's not. A silver on a Y beats a 1K on a B. Means that elites on lower than B (M in the case of 1K) stand close to zero chance of UG on most flights.
Mar 19, 2012, 7:08 pm
#236
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So? That's been true on DL forever too. A FO on a Y beats a DM on a B. And I still see plenty of DMs and PMs on fares lower than B that get upgrades... though UA/CO's version of FCM does have a fair number of people ticked off.
Mar 19, 2012, 7:11 pm
#237
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: AUS
Programs: Delta FO, United Silver, National Executive, HHonors Silver, Marriott Silver
Posts: 347
So, I'll bite on this...I have been told several times by DL that I am a HVC. I flew 300K+ miles BIS in 2011, spent over $100K (mostly through full J tpacs, and refundable Y bought last minute) in 2011 and I have banked millions, literally millions of SMs (DL dining, AmEx promotions, DL promotions, Hilton double dip bonuses, etc.) that I have virtually never redeemed in the 11 years now that I have been flying DL. Why, then, would I care negatively about a revenue-based program? Simple...further devaluation of the SMs that I have accumulated. I figure that at some point, my days of heavy flying and long hours with entire months some times spent on the road will eventually come to an end. The accumulation of FF miles is a spoil of living such a life in business. When I walk away, I want to be able to use those miles for my wife and I to travel and fly whatever class of service we want to sit in and never have to worry about giving DL a credit card number ever again to purchase a ticket.
If DL goes to a strictly fare-based program, then those miles I have accumulated with plans on using them in retirement have zero value or very limited value. For those reasons, if this is the future direction of the program, it stinks! It screws over every one of us that has been loyal to this airline for so many years when we could have been flying a competitor for less money. It is precisely because of loyalty that I have stuck around with DL now for the last decade through all the bad business decisions and through the current and ongoing devaluation of the SM program. It will also be precisely because of the feeling of being stabbed in the back that I would seriously consider the chance to status match to another airline and see what the grass is like on the other side!
If DL goes to a strictly fare-based program, then those miles I have accumulated with plans on using them in retirement have zero value or very limited value. For those reasons, if this is the future direction of the program, it stinks! It screws over every one of us that has been loyal to this airline for so many years when we could have been flying a competitor for less money. It is precisely because of loyalty that I have stuck around with DL now for the last decade through all the bad business decisions and through the current and ongoing devaluation of the SM program. It will also be precisely because of the feeling of being stabbed in the back that I would seriously consider the chance to status match to another airline and see what the grass is like on the other side!
You're accounting for miles accumulated from over a decade of flying (and that's just way too much time at altitude), but weren't a lot of those program years under the "use 'em or loose 'em" model?
Again... I'm not flaming... just want to try and better my understanding of your situation.
Mar 19, 2012, 7:13 pm
#238
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Join Date: Jan 2000
Posts: 15,352
As I said AC has no network carrier competition in its entire country. As for int'l yes they are on even footing with those they compete against, the sum being that whatever they do with their FF program in their tiny country (population wise) where they are the only network carrier has nothing to do with anything. Same applies to ANZ, which is the only carrier of note in the country and essentially has monopolies on most of the flights and routes which it operates (and a tiny population and tiny fleet). You might as well quote me what Aerosvit or Tarom are doing in comparison, comparatively they may be larger carriers than these two examples.
I hear/see one or two posters creating a whole panic about revenue based redemptions, something that was not stated by the OP, nor anywhere near the start of the airliners.net thread, some seem to have bitten, but there is no evidence of any thought of this except in the the postings of a few FT members, one of which is known for going all crazy in his or her assumptions on a regular basis.
I hear/see one or two posters creating a whole panic about revenue based redemptions, something that was not stated by the OP, nor anywhere near the start of the airliners.net thread, some seem to have bitten, but there is no evidence of any thought of this except in the the postings of a few FT members, one of which is known for going all crazy in his or her assumptions on a regular basis.
Mar 19, 2012, 7:14 pm
#239
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Mar 19, 2012, 7:16 pm
#240
Join Date: Jun 2010
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Posts: 2,264
6 segments @ $450 - $200 (value choice bennie conservatively) = $250/75000 = equiv of 0.33 cpm