Help picking a route based on upgrade probability
Oct 4, 2011 | 5:14 am
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Apr 2008
Programs: AA Exec Plat, DL PM, UA GS, HH Gold, SPG Plat
Posts: 47
Help picking a route based on upgrade probability
I am going to take a flight from LAX to RDU later this year and I essentially have two routing options:
LAX-MCO-RDU
or
LAX-MSY-MEM-RDU
Both routes take about the same amount of time given layovers. I want your help picking based on likelihood of upgrades. Both tickets would be on the same fare class, by the way. Also, this is far enough ahead that it doesn't make sense to look at current first class availability on each flight.
I am a DL Gold client. Essentially, the question is: which route is most likely to have frequent flyers? Oh, and both flights are on a Tuesday.
Thanks!
LAX-MCO-RDU
or
LAX-MSY-MEM-RDU
Both routes take about the same amount of time given layovers. I want your help picking based on likelihood of upgrades. Both tickets would be on the same fare class, by the way. Also, this is far enough ahead that it doesn't make sense to look at current first class availability on each flight.
I am a DL Gold client. Essentially, the question is: which route is most likely to have frequent flyers? Oh, and both flights are on a Tuesday.
Thanks!
Oct 4, 2011 | 7:54 am
#4
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: ATL
Programs: Delta DM, 4MM, SC, AmEx Reserve, UA Plat, SPG/Marriott Platinum, Hertz Gold
Posts: 2,383
Would agree with lsugolfer that upgrade chances into MSY are likely pretty good as a GM. Also, MEM-RDU, your upgrade chances are likely pretty decent, especially if you choose your flights wisely!
Oct 4, 2011 | 9:26 am
#8
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: ATL
Programs: 4MM/DM, Marriott Lifetime PM, Hilton Diamond, SPG Platinum
Posts: 1,370
Oct 4, 2011 | 10:48 am
#9
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: TPA
Programs: United - PG, Marriott Silver
Posts: 1,625
LAX-MCO is one of those unpredictable routes. There is a large film industry in MCO, and as such that route is susceptible to being full of paid F pax. Plus (although this applies to LAX-MSY as well) there is a low F to Y (1:11) ratio on the 738.
I have never taken the route, but I have a friend who is PM and makes the trip 3 or 4 times a year. He says you can find yourself clearing at the window for the Monday morning flight one trip, and then the next time be 10 deep on the u/g list for 0 seats on a Wednesday red-eye.
I have never taken the route, but I have a friend who is PM and makes the trip 3 or 4 times a year. He says you can find yourself clearing at the window for the Monday morning flight one trip, and then the next time be 10 deep on the u/g list for 0 seats on a Wednesday red-eye.