Help picking a route based on upgrade probability
 

I am going to take a flight from LAX to RDU later this year and I essentially have two routing options:

LAX-MCO-RDU
or
LAX-MSY-MEM-RDU

Both routes take about the same amount of time given layovers. I want your help picking based on likelihood of upgrades. Both tickets would be on the same fare class, by the way. Also, this is far enough ahead that it doesn't make sense to look at current first class availability on each flight.

I am a DL Gold client. Essentially, the question is: which route is most likely to have frequent flyers? Oh, and both flights are on a Tuesday.

Thanks!

LAX-MSY is pretty much a given for Golds...

I had issues with LAX-MCO as a Plat, so I'd second lsugolfer and go for LAX-MSY.

Would agree with lsugolfer that upgrade chances into MSY are likely pretty good as a GM. Also, MEM-RDU, your upgrade chances are likely pretty decent, especially if you choose your flights wisely!

I've cleared every MSY-MEM flight at the window as a gold as well.

Assuming LAX-RDU n/s isn't an option? My coworker cleared it Sunday night as FO.

Leaving 2 segs and 1000+ MQM's and another 2000+ miles on the table...

I believe the MCO-RDU is via a CRJ with no FC

LAX-MCO is one of those unpredictable routes. There is a large film industry in MCO, and as such that route is susceptible to being full of paid F pax. Plus (although this applies to LAX-MSY as well) there is a low F to Y (1:11) ratio on the 738.

I have never taken the route, but I have a friend who is PM and makes the trip 3 or 4 times a year. He says you can find yourself clearing at the window for the Monday morning flight one trip, and then the next time be 10 deep on the u/g list for 0 seats on a Wednesday red-eye.

General rule 1: Avoid ATL

General rule 2: Avoid any MD-xx metal

Thanks everyone. Will go with the MSY route and will report back in a few months when i take that flight.