I am going to take a flight from LAX to RDU later this year and I essentially have two routing options:

LAX-MCO-RDU
or
LAX-MSY-MEM-RDU

Both routes take about the same amount of time given layovers. I want your help picking based on likelihood of upgrades. Both tickets would be on the same fare class, by the way. Also, this is far enough ahead that it doesn't make sense to look at current first class availability on each flight.

I am a DL Gold client. Essentially, the question is: which route is most likely to have frequent flyers? Oh, and both flights are on a Tuesday.

Thanks!