A cruise line has typical clientele, many who may be not be price sensitive. However, this environment is like the wild west--everything goes and there are no rules.

Take the luxury market (Seabourn, etc.) with a clientele that probably has an average age of 70+. The population of Seabourn cruisers range the gamut in terms of price-sensitivity. Some take cabins without balconies, some take large suites. Obviously, there is price sensitivity, or Seabourn would not build ships that have cabins without balconies. for no one would end up in those rooms.

Seabourn and other luxury (and non-luxury) lines are now facing a dramatic decline in their typical interested passenger (older and of varying levels of affluence). Those remaining who want to cruise will be faced with a myriad of decisions--where to pick up the cruise, is it safe getting there and being at the departure port, etc.

Assume that fear keeps 50% of the over-70 cruisers from booking for the next two years. Who is going to fill those cabins, but younger, healthier, less affluent, and more price-sensitive passengers? Now, they have to choose between a luxury line that is unaffordable because a finance guy says that "our passengers are price-inelastic," or a luxury line that decides to reach out to the less-wealthy and more price-elastic as a way of keeping ships filled and creating a whole bunch of brand-loyal "youngsters" who will be cruising with them for decades to come.

So, be prepared for an incredibly competitive environment.

You of all people, with your knowledge of the airline business, should know that load factor is no mark of profitability. Huge chunks of distressed cabin inventory were sold off at deep discounts, or for pittances on last-minute-travel websites. In contrast to the airlines, unsold cruise cabins got cheaper as sailing date approaches, not more expensive.

A desperate Carnival is now flogging August 5-night sailings for $139 plus fees. $139 barely covers towel and linen service. Even if the ship sails 100% full, that's a disaster.

Every public opinion survey over the last month shows the cohort that pooh-poohs coronavirus and wants to get back to "living their lives" is a very small minority. Most people prioritize getting the virus under control, and that goes double for seniors, and probably double again for seniors with discretionary spending power.

Actually there are sailings with less than 100% load but that happens more often on the upper end luxury lines than the mass market lines. While policies differ from line to line the all-inclusive luxury lines generally do not do last minute �flash� sales. That�s driven by the upfront nature of their business model. Butts in beds on an all-inclusives does not generate the same kind onboard spending that it does on a pay-as-you-go mass market line.

Maybe this data point was missed by the OP.

I was conditioned to think this was the past-final-payment price of (inside cabin) caribbean cruises during non-peak season. Now, if those prices included suites, that would be a little different.

The survey results I've seen have been all over the map, directly correlated to way the questions are asked. "Do you support maintaining measures like social distancing as long as they are saving lives?" Overwhelming yes. "Do you support reopening the economy as quickly and safely as possible?" Again, overwhelming yes. The ones I've seen that at least try to do fair polling (i.e. not wording the questions to get the result they want) reflect pretty much like everything else when opinions are polled: 20% are extreme "open it all now", 20% are extreme "never open until there's a vaccine", and 60% are moderates in the middle of the pack.

I suspect the 20% on the extreme fringe of keeping things closed wouldn't have cruised before COVID-19 anyway because they were also afraid of norovirus, or hitting an iceberg, or dying in a plane crash on the way to the ship. So if we consider the remaining 80% of people to be at least open to cruising at some point between now and eradication of coronavirus as a serious health threat, there are plenty of people who will start cruising as soon as they are able and others who will get more comfortable with the idea as time goes on. It's true that the elderly are at higher risk of serious complications from COVID-19, but they were at higher risk of every other ailment on a cruise, from the flu to a broken hip. I have no evidence for this, but some elderly folks (who've been through a few other existential threats to the planet during their lifetimes, and who saw the planet pull through just fine) might have a better perspective on accepting the risk. Then there's also the, "well, I'm going to die in the relatively near future anyway, and might catch coronavirus here at home, so might as well live life on my terms and keep seeing the world" philosophy.

Time will tell!

I doubt any cruise line is looking to go out with more than 50% occupancy rate for anything sailing in 2020. This, combined with future cruise credits will keep prices from diving. Expectations will be kept low for the next 12 months and they have already adjusted staffing requirements.

Cruise lines have been dealing with infectious diseases for many years, and actually they have been quite good at controlling previous illness.

However, Covid-19 has changed all the rules of the game. Whereas previously a sick passenger could be isolated to their room for 1-2 days for expected recovery, and the ship scrubbed down to prevent viral transmission by surface or food contact, we now have an illness that is lethal to 1-10% of those it infects (especially true in the crowds that cruise), and requires hospitalization in many more. The disease is so contagious that countries will not allow a ship to offload a sick passenger in their port (and will even ban the ship from docking!).

It's not the cruise line that will control cruising, it is the ports and countries that will allow entry that will control the industry. It is not the number of passengers you can put on board, but whether you can prove to health officials that your ship is virus free.

You can wash and clean and test till the cows come home, but until there is 1) effective therapy and/or 2) vaccines, the cruise industry may be limited to 3 day trips to nowhere as their only offerings.

Most cruises are not fully booked. There are almost always available passenger cabins onboard.

I have never seen evidence of this, therefore I do not believe either statement is true.

I watched the cruise industary cope (?) with the pandemic + realized that once I board the cruise, the t's&c's allow for anything:
- missing/skipping ports;
- quarantine in cabin;
- withdrawing any/all amenities.
As a result, I cancelled my next cruise. It was fun while it lasted.

Carnival Cruise Bookings Surge 600% After Announcing August Relaunch — 200% Over Same Time Last Year (TMZ reporting)

https://www.tmz.com/2020/05/09/carni...suming-august/

I am highly skeptical.

Anyone want to do an over/under on whether Carnival's launch in August takes place, and where the cruise goes to?